Anthropogenic heat in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil

The main goal of this work is to describe the anthropogenic energy flux (Q _F) in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil. The hourly, monthly, and annual values of the anthropogenic energy flux are estimated using the inventory method, and the contributions of vehicular, stationary, and human metabolism sources from 2004 to 2007 are considered. The vehicular and stationary sources are evaluated using the primary consumption of energy based on fossil fuel, bio fuel, and electricity usage by the population. The diurnal evolution of the anthropogenic energy flux shows three relative maxima, with the largest maxima occurring early in the morning (??19.9 Wm^?2) and in the late afternoon (??20.3 Wm^?2). The relative maximum that occurs around noontime (??19.6 Wm^?2) reflects the diurnal pattern of vehicle traffic that seems to be specific to S?o Paulo. With respect to diurnal evolution, the energy flux released by vehicular sources (Q _FV) contributes approximately 50% of the total anthropogenic energy flux. Stationary sources (Q _FS) and human metabolism (Q _FM) represent about 41% and 9% of the anthropogenic energy flux, respectively. For 2007, the monthly values of Q _FV, Q _FS, Q _FM, and Q _F are, respectively, 16.8?±?0.25, 14.3?±?0.16, 3.5?±?0.03, and 34.6?±?0.41?MJ?m^?2?month^?1. The seasonal evolution monthly values of Q _FV, Q _FS, Q _FM, and Q _F show a relative minimum during the summer and winter vacations and a systematic and progressive increase associated with the seasonal evolution of the economic activity in S?o Paulo. The annual evolution of Q _F indicates that the city of S?o Paulo released 355.2?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 in 2004 and 415.5?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 in 2007 in association with an annual rate of increase of 19.6?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 (from 2004 to 2006) and 30.5?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 (from 2006 to 2007). The anthropogenic energy flux corresponds to about 9% of the net radiation at the surface in the summer and 15% in the winter. The amplitude of seasonal variation of the maximum hourly value of the diurnal variation increases exponentially with latitude.     

Uncertainty in an emissions-constrained world

Our study focuses on uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from anthropogenic sources, including land use and land-use change activities. We aim to understand the relevance of diagnostic (retrospective) and prognostic (prospective) uncertainty in an emissions-temperature setting that seeks to constrain global warming and to link uncertainty consistently across temporal scales. We discuss diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty in a systems setting that allows any country to understand its national and near-term mitigation and adaptation efforts in a globally consistent and long-term context. Cumulative emissions are not only constrained and globally binding but exhibit quantitative uncertainty; and whether or not compliance with an agreed temperature target will be achieved is also uncertain. To facilitate discussions, we focus on two countries, the USA and China. While our study addresses whether or not future increase in global temperature can be kept below 2, 3, or 4 °C targets, its primary aim is to use those targets to demonstrate the relevance of both diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty. We show how to combine diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty to take more educated (precautionary) decisions for reducing emissions toward an agreed temperature target; and how to perceive combined diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty-related risk. Diagnostic uncertainty is the uncertainty contained in inventoried emission estimates and relates to the risk that true GHG emissions are greater than inventoried emission estimates reported in a specified year; prognostic uncertainty refers to cumulative emissions between a start year and a future target year, and relates to the risk that an agreed temperature target is exceeded.     

Investigation of the impact in variation of secondary radioclimatic variables on microwave at the lower atmosphere

The work discusses the effect in the variations of secondary radioclimatic parameters in Nsukka, Nigeria. The data collected from the measured atmospheric profile using two automatic wireless weather stations for 3 years were used to estimate the propagation condition, geoclimatic factor, and effective earth radius. The result shows that, the calculated median value of k-factor is 1.595, with an absolute span of 0.26 of the standard value of k-factor 1.333 owing to the increase in relative humidity during the rainy seasons and intensive temperature inversion in the morning and early afternoon periods of December due to the dry harmattan for the season. Also, from the result super-refraction propagation condition was observed for about 7 months of a year, while ducting condition dominates the remaining 5 months in the region. The regression analysis of k-factor as a function of ground refractivity showed that the pair is strongly correlated (0.9996). These results have not been obtained in the region and it will help in planning of radio wave line-of-sight for better signal reception.     

Drivers of change in Brazil’s carbon dioxide emissions

Brazil’s economic development has been underpinned by a diverse and – in a global comparison – unusual set of energy carriers, notably hydroelectricity and ethanol from sugar cane. Its energy mix makes Brazil one of the least energy-related carbon-intensive economies worldwide. Given that the country is fast becoming one of the world’s economic powerhouses, decision-makers need to understand the drivers underlying past and current carbon dioxide emissions trends. We therefore investigate a) which key long-term drivers have led to Brazil’s unique emissions profile, and b) the implications of these drivers for Brazil’s national policies. We show that Brazil’s emissions are growing mainly due to increasing individual standards of living, exports and population size, and that this growth is so far unchallenged by technological and structural improvements toward lower emissions intensities and more efficient production structures. As these trends are likely to continue amidst growing international pressure on key economies to reduce their carbon emissions, a decoupling of drivers from emissions is needed to simultaneously meet development and environmental goals.     

Consistency of observed near surface temperature trends with climate change projections over the Mediterranean region

We examine the possibility that anthropogenic forcing (Greenhouse gases and Sulfate aerosols, GS) is a plausible explanation for the observed near-surface temperature trends over the Mediterranean area. For this purpose, we compare annual and seasonal observed trends in near-surface temperature over the period from 1980 to 2009 with the response to GS forcing estimated from 23 models derived from CMIP3 database. We find that there is less than a 5% chance that natural (internal) variability is responsible for the observed annual and seasonal area-mean warming except in winter. Using additionally two pattern similarity statistics, pattern correlation and regression, we find that the large-scale component (spatial-mean) of the GS signal is detectable (at 2.5% level) in all seasons except in winter. In contrast, we fail to detect the small-scale component (spatial anomalies about the mean) of GS signal in observed trend patterns. Further, we find that the recent trends are significantly (at 2.5% level) consistent with all the 23 GS patterns, except in summer and spring, when 9 and 5 models respectively underestimate the observed warming. Thus, we conclude that GS forcing is a plausible explanation for the observed warming in the Mediterranean region. Consistency of observed trends with climate change projections indicates that present trends may be understood of what will come more so in the future, allowing for a better communication of the societal challenges to meet in the future.     

Verification of compliance with GHG emission targets: annex B countries

The focus of this study is on the preparatory detection of uncertain greenhouse gas (GHG) emission changes (also termed emission signals) under the Kyoto Protocol. Preparatory signal detection is a measure that should be taken prior to/during negotiation of the Protocol. It allows the ranking of countries under the Protocol according to their realized versus their agreed emission changes and in terms of both certainty and credibility. Controlling GHGs is affected by uncertainty and may be costly. Thus, knowing whether each nation is doing its part is in the public interest. At present, however, countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are obliged to include in the reporting of their annual inventories direct or alternative estimates of the uncertainty associated with these, consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) good practice guidance reports. As a consequence, inventory uncertainty is monitored, but not regulated, under the Kyoto Protocol. Although uncertainties are becoming increasingly available, monitored emissions and uncertainties are still dealt with separately. In our study we analyze estimates of both emission changes and uncertainties to advance the evaluation of countries and their performance under the Protocol. Our analysis allows supply and demand of emissions credits to be examined in consideration of uncertainty. For the purpose of our exercise, we make use of the Undershooting and Verification Time concept described by Jonas et al. (Clim Change doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9914-6, 2010).     

Analysis and integrated modelling of groundwater infiltration to sewer networks

Infiltration of groundwater to sewer systems is a problem for the capacity of the system as well as for treatment processes at waste water treatment plants. This paper quantifies the infiltration of groundwater to a sewer system in Frederikshavn Municipality, Denmark, by measurements of sewer flow and novel model set‐up, which simulates the interaction between groundwater and sewer flow. The study area has a separate waste water sewer system, but the discharged volumes from the system are approximately twice the volumes from a tight system without infiltration. The model set‐up makes use of two commercial models: mike she for simulation of groundwater transport and mike urban (mouse ) [DHI, Hørsholm, Denmark] for simulation of sewer flow. By simulating the groundwater level and calibrating infiltration coefficients against sewer flow measurements, it has been possible to estimate the average infiltration to the sewer system with satisfying results. The infiltration processes are indeed complicated and to a large degree heterogeneous throughout the sewer system. The paper shows contribution from both saturated and unsaturated groundwater zones, which makes the modelling process complex. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adaptive lives. Navigating the global food crisis in a changing climate

Human adaptation to climate change is gaining increasing academic as well as political attention. Understanding how and what people around the world adapt to is, however, difficult. Climate change is often, if not always, only one of a multiplicity of exposures perforating local communities. In Biidi 2, a small Sahelian village in northern Burkina Faso, climate variability have had a great influence on inhabitants’ lives since the major droughts of the early 1970s and 1980s. Tracing the intertwinement of drought, diminishing agricultural production and the need to buy food, this article explores how villagers attempt to attract development projects and negotiate with political parties in order to negate the impact of the global food crisis on their livelihoods. In doing so the article attempts to show how adaptation to climate variability is related to multiple, intersecting processes, and in this specific case is a matter of navigating changing socioeconomic factors. Using recent theory from social anthropology, adaptation is explored as a matter of social navigation. It is suggested that this theoretical approach might help nuance and elucidate how, and to what, local people around the world adapt.     

Quantitative evaluation of different hydrological modelling approaches in a partly glacierized Swiss watershed

Mountain water resources management often requires hydrological models that need to handle both snow and ice melt. In this study, we compared two different model types for a partly glacierized watershed in central Switzerland: (1) an energy‐balance model primarily designed for snow simulations; and (2) a temperature‐index model developed for glacier simulations. The models were forced with data extrapolated from long‐term measurement records to mimic the typical input data situation for climate change assessments. By using different methods to distribute precipitation, we also assessed how various snow cover patterns influenced the modelled runoff. The energy‐balance model provided accurate discharge estimations during periods dominated by snow melt, but dropped in performance during the glacier ablation season. The glacier melt rates were sensitive to the modelled snow cover patterns and to the parameterization of turbulent heat fluxes. In contrast, the temperature‐index model poorly reproduced snow melt runoff, but provided accurate discharge estimations during the periods dominated by glacier ablation, almost independently of the method used to distribute precipitation. Apparently, the calibration of this model compensated for the inaccurate precipitation input with biased parameters. Our results show that accurate estimates of snow cover patterns are needed either to correctly constrain the melt parameters of the temperature‐index model or to ensure appropriate glacier surface albedos required by the energy‐balance model. Thus, particularly when only distant meteorological stations are available, carefully selected input data and efficient extrapolation methods of meteorological variables improve the reliability of runoff simulations in high alpine watersheds. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Langeland Fault System unravelled: Quaternary fault reactivation along an elevated basement block between the North German and Norwegian–Danish basins

The reactivation of faults and possible impact on barrier integrity marks a critical aspect for investigations on subsurface usage capabilities. Glacial isostatic adjustments, originating from repeated Quaternary glaciations of northern Europe, cause tectonic stresses on pre-existing fault systems and structural elements of the North German and Norwegian–Danish basins. Notably, our current understanding of the dynamics and scales of glacially induced fault reactivation is rather limited. A high-resolution 2D seismic data set recently acquired offshore northeastern Langeland Island allows the investigation of a fault and graben system termed the Langeland Fault System. Seismo-stratigraphic interpretation of reflection seismic data in combination with diffraction imaging unravels the spatial character of the Langeland Fault System along an elevated basement block of the Ringkøbing–Fyn High. In combination with sediment echosounder data, the data set helps to visualize the continuation of deep-rooted faults up to the sea floor. Initial Mesozoic faulting occurred during the Triassic. Late Cretaceous inversion reactivated a basement fault flanking the southern border of the elevated basement block of the Ringkøbing–Fyn High while inversion is absent in the Langeland Fault System. Here, normal faulting occurred in the Maastrichtian–Danian. We show that a glacial or postglacial fault reactivation occurred within the Langeland Fault System, as evident by the propagation of the faults from the deeper subsurface up to the sea floor, dissecting glacial and postglacial successions. Our findings suggest that the Langeland Fault System was reactivated over a length scale of a minimum of 8.5 km. We discuss the causes for this Quaternary fault reactivations in the context of glacially induced faulting and the present-day stress field. The combination of imaging techniques with different penetration depths and vertical resolution used in this study is rarely realized in the hinterland. It can therefore be speculated that many more inherited, deep-rooted faults were reactivated in Pleistocene glaciated regions.