Geochemistry of igneous rocks associated with ultramafic–mafic-hosted Cu (Co, Ni, Au) VMS deposits from the Main Uralian Fault (Southern Urals, Russia)

Ultramafic–mafic- and ultramafic-hosted Cu (Co, Ni, Au) volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposits from ophiolite complexes of the Main Uralian Fault, Southern Urals, are associated with island arc-type igneous rocks. Trace element analyses show that these rocks are geochemically analogous to Early Devonian boninitic and island arc tholeiitic rocks found at the base of the adjacent Magnitogorsk volcanic arc system, while they are distinguished both from earlier, pre-subduction volcanic rocks and from later volcanic products that were erupted in progressively more internal arc settings. The correlation between the sulfide host-rocks and the earliest volcanic units of the Magnitogorsk arc suggests a connection between VMS formation and infant subduction-driven intraoceanic magmatism.     

History of the Middle Berriasian transgression on the Jura carbonate platform: revealed by high-resolution sequence- and cyclostratigraphy (Switzerland and France)

The Middle Berriasian deposits of the Jura platform in Switzerland and France have already been well studied in terms of high-resolution sequence stratigraphy and different orders of depositional sequences (large-, medium-, and small-scale) have been defined. The hierarchical stacking pattern of the sequences and the time span represented by the investigated interval imply that sea-level fluctuations in the Milankovitch frequency band as well as differential subsidence caused the observed changes of accommodation on the Jura platform. The present study focuses on three small-scale sequences within the transgressive interval of a large-scale sequence. The initial flooding of the platform is marked by a facies change from supra- and intertidal (Goldberg Formation) to shallow-marine subtidal deposits (Pierre Chatel Formation). Detailed logging and facies analysis of 11 sections allow recognizing small environmental changes that define elementary sequences within the well-established small-scale sequences and distinguishing between autocyclic and allocyclic processes in sequence formation. It is concluded that the small-scale sequences correspond to the 100-ka orbital eccentricity cycle, while allocyclic elementary sequences formed in tune with the 20-ka precession cycle. Based on the correlation of elementary and small-scale sequences it can be shown that the Jura platform has been flooded stepwise by repeated transgressive pulses. Differential subsidence and pre-existing platform morphology further controlled sediment accumulation and distribution during the transgression. The combination of high-resolution sequence stratigraphy and cyclostratigraphy then enables the reconstruction of hypothetical palaeogeographic maps in time increments of a few ten thousand years.     

Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel

In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization.     

Compliance for uncertain inventories via probabilistic/fuzzy comparison of alternatives

A direct comparison among highly uncertain inventories of emissions is inadequate and may lead to paradoxes. This issue is of particular importance in the case of greenhouse gases. This paper reviews the methods for the comparison of uncertain inventories in the context of compliance checking. The problem is treated as a comparison of uncertain alternatives. It provides a categorization and ranking of the inventories which can induce compliance checking conditions. Two groups of techniques to compare uncertain estimates are considered in the paper: probabilistic and fuzzy approaches. They show certain similarities which are revealed and stressed throughout the paper. The group of methods most suitable for the compliance purpose is distinguished. They introduce new conditions for fulfilling compliance, depending on inventory uncertainty. These new conditions considerably change the present approach, where only the reported values of inventories are accounted for.     

Investigations on the runoff generation at the profile and plot scales,Swiss Emmental

This article describes an investigation on runoff generation at different scales in the forested catchment of the Sperbelgraben in the Emmental region (Swiss Prealps) where studies in the field of forest hydrology have a history of 100 years. It focuses on the analysis of soil profiles and the subsequent sprinkling experiments above them (1 m²), as well as on surface runoff measurements on larger plots (50 to 110 m²). In the Sperbelgraben investigation area, two very distinct runoff reactions could be observed. On the one hand, very high production of saturation overland flow was registered on wet areas of gleyic soils, with runoff coefficients between 0·39 and 0·94 for profile irrigation. On the other hand, almost no surface runoff was measured on Cambisols, with the exception at some sites of a hydrophobic reaction detected at the beginning of storms after dry periods (coefficients for profile irrigation: 0·01–0·16). This pattern was observed during 1 m² soil plot irrigation and on surface runoff plots. Apart from a less distinctive signal of the water‐repellent litter layer on the larger surface runoff plots, the dominant hydrological processes at the two scales are the same. The determined runoff reaction at the two scales corresponds well with information from a forest site type map describing soil and vegetation characteristics and used as a substitute for a soil map in this study. Theoretical considerations describing forest influence on flood discharge are discussed and evaluated to be in good agreement with observations. These findings are a sound foundation for application in hydrological catchment modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Terrestrial full carbon account for Russia: revised uncertainty estimates and their role in a bottom-up/top-down accounting exercise

Our research addresses the need to close the gap between bottom-up and top-down accounting of net atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Russia is sufficiently large to be resolved in a bottom-up/top-down accounting exercise, as well as being a signatory state of the Kyoto Protocol. We resolve Russia’s atmospheric CO₂ balance (1988–1992) in terms of four major land-use/cover units and eight bioclimatic zones. On the basis of our results we conclude that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) must revise its carbon balance for northern Asia. We find a less optimistic, although more realistic, bottom-up versus top-down match for northern Asia than the IPCC authors. Nonetheless, in spite of the larger uncertainties involved, our research shows that (1) there is indeed an added value in linking bottom-up and top-down carbon accounting because our dual-constrained regional carbon balance is incomparably more rigorous; and that (2) the need persists for more atmospheric measurements, including atmospheric inversion experiments, over Russia.     

Consistency of observed winter precipitation trends in northern Europe with regional climate change projections

Often it is claimed that the recent changes in northern European climate are at least partly anthropogenic even though a human influence has not yet been successfully detected. Hence we investigate whether the recent changes are consistent with regional climate change projections. Therefore, trends in winter (DJF) mean precipitation in northern Europe are compared to human induced changes as predicted by a set of four regional climate model simulations. The patterns of recent trends and predicted changes match reasonably well as indicated by pattern correlation and the similarity is very likely not random. However, the model projections generally underestimate the recent change in winter precipitation. That is, the signal-to-noise ratio of the anthropogenic precipitation change is either rather low or the presently used simulations are significantly flawed in their ability to project changes into the future. European trends contain large signals related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), of which a major unknown part may be unrelated to the anthropogenic signal. Therefore, we also examine the consistency of recent and projected changes after subtracting the NAO signal in both the observations and in the projections. It turns out that even after the removal of the NAO signal, the pattern of trends in the observations is similar to those projected by the models. At the same time, the magnitude of the trends is considerably reduced and closer to the magnitude of the change in the projections.     

Wavelet analysis of turbulence in cirrus clouds

Two flights of the UK Meteorological Offices Hercules aircraft through daytime frontal cirrus around Scotland have been analysed using wavelet analysis on the vertical velocity time-series from the horizontal runs. It is shown that wavelet analysis is a useful tool for analysing the turbulence data in cirrus clouds. It finds the largest scales involved in producing turbulence, as does Fourier analysis, such as the 2-km spectral peaks corresponding to convective activity during flight A283. Wavelet spectra have the added advantage that the position is shown, and so they identify smaller-scale, highly localised processes such as the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the breaking of Kelvin-Helmholtz waves due to the vertical shear in the horizontal wind. These may be lost in Fourier spectra obtained for long time-series, though they contribute something to the average spectral density at the appropriate scale. The main disadvantage of this technique is that only octave frequency bands are resolved.