Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries

Climate change-induced sea-level rise, sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events puts the long-term ability of humans to inhabit atolls at risk. We argue that this risk constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to atoll countries by potentially undermining their national sovereignty. We outline the novel challenges this presents to both climate change research and policy. For research, the challenge is to identify the critical thresholds of change beyond which atoll social-ecological systems may collapse. We explain how thresholds may be behaviorally driven as well as ecologically driven through the role of expectations in resource management. The challenge for the international policy process, centred on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to recognize the particular vulnerability of atoll countries by operationalising international norms of justice, sovereignty, and human and national security in the regime.     

ASPI experiment: measurements of fields and waves on board the INTERBALL-1 spacecraft

The plasma-wave experiment ASPI (analysis of spectra of plasma waves and instabilities) on board the INTERBALL spacecraft is a combined wave diagnostics experiment. It performs measurements of the DC and AC magnetic field vector by flux-gate and searchcoil sensors, the DC and AC electric field vector by Langmuir double probes and the plasma current by Langmuir split probe. Preliminary data analysis shows the low noise levels of the sensors and the compatibility of new data with the results of previous missions. During several months of in-orbit operation a rich collection of data was acquired, examples of which at the magnetopause and plasma sheet are presented in second part of the paper.     

Radiative Exchange in an Urban Street Canyon

The influence of building geometry on the radiation terms ofthe surface energy balance is a principal reason for surfacetemperature differences between rural and urban areas.Methods exist to calculate the radiation balance in an urban area,but their validity across the range of urban geometries andmaterials has not been carefully considered.Here the exchange of diffuse radiation in an urban street canyon isinvestigated using a method incorporating all reflections of radiation.This exact solution is compared to two commonly used approximationsthat retain either no reflections, or just one reflection of radiation.The area-averaged net radiative flux density from the facets of the canyondecreases in magnitude monotonically as the canyon aspect ratio increases.The two approximate solutions possess unphysical differences from thismonotonic decrease for high canyon aspect ratios or low materialemissivities/high material albedos.The errors of the two approximate solutions are small for near blackbodymaterials and small canyon aspect ratios but can be an order ofmagnitude for intermediate material properties and deep street canyons.Urban street canyon models need to consider at least one reflectionof radiation and multiple reflections are desirable for full applicability.     

Are open fractures necessarily aligned with maximum horizontal stress?

Fluid flow in fractured rock is an increasingly central issue in recovering water and hydrocarbon supplies and geothermal energy, in predicting flow of pollutants underground, in engineering structures, and in understanding large-scale crustal behaviour. Conventional wisdom assumes that fluids prefer to flow along fractures oriented parallel or nearly parallel to modern-day maximum horizontal compressive stress, or S_Hmax. The reasoning is that these fractures have the lowest normal stresses across them and therefore provide the least resistance to flow. For example, this view governs how geophysicists design and interpret seismic experiments to probe fracture fluid pathways in the deep subsurface. Contrary to these widely held views, here we use core, stress measurement, and fluid flow data to show that S_Hmax does not necessarily coincide with the direction of open natural fractures in the subsurface (>3 km depth). Consequently, in situ stress direction cannot be considered to predict or control the direction of maximum permeability in rock. Where effective stress is compressive and fractures are expected to be closed, chemical alteration dictates location of open conduits, either preserving or destroying fracture flow pathways no matter their orientation.     

Sedimentology and kinematics of a large, retrogressive growth-fault system in Upper Carboniferous deltaic sediments, western Ireland

Growth faulting is a common feature of many deltaic environments and is vital in determining local sediment dispersal and accumulation, and hence in controlling the resultant sedimentary facies distribution and architecture. Growth faults occur on a range of scales, from a few centimetres to hundreds of metres, with the largest growth faults frequently being under‐represented in outcrops that are often smaller than the scale of feature under investigation. This paper presents data from the exceptionally large outcrops of the Cliffs of Moher, western Ireland, where a growth‐fault complex affects strata up to 60 m in thickness and extends laterally for ≈ 3 km. Study of this Namurian (Upper Carboniferous) growth‐fault system enables the relationship between growth faulting and sedimentation to be detailed and permits reconstruction of the kinematic history of faulting. Growth faulting was initiated with the onset of sandstone deposition on a succession of silty mudstones that overlie a thin, marine shale. The decollement horizon developed at the top of the marine shale contact for the first nine faults, by which time aggradation in the hangingwall exceeded 60 m in thickness. After this time, failure planes developed at higher stratigraphic levels and were associated with smaller scale faults. The fault complex shows a dominantly landward retrogressive movement, in which only one fault was largely active at any one time. There is no evidence of compressional features at the base of the growth faults, thus suggesting open‐ended slides, and the faults display both disintegrative and non‐disintegrative structure. Thin‐bedded, distal mouth bar facies dominate the hangingwall stratigraphy and, in the final stages of growth‐fault movement, erosion of the crests of rollover structures resulted in the highest strata being restricted to the proximity of the fault. These upper erosion surfaces on the fault scarp developed erosive chutes that were cut parallel to flow and are downlapped by the distal hangingwall strata of younger growth faults.     

A Local Example of Land‐Use Change: Southern Illinois—1807, 1938, and 1993*

This article provides an analysis of a wetland site in southern Illinois from presettlement to the present. The study area is part of the Cache River‐Cypress Creek Wetland, which has international importance, as recognized by the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. Land‐cover data for 1807, 1938, and 1993 were created and analyzed with a geographic information system (GIS). Land‐use change by topographic setting (uplands, transitional, and bottomlands) and soil productivity was quantified and studied. Interviews with local experts informed this analysis. Results illustrate the complexity of environmental change and its driving forces. First, notable forest and swamp acreage was converted to cropland between 1807 and 1938 and, to a lesser degree, from 1938 to 1993. Second, there were land‐use variations by topographic region. Between 1807 and 1938, the largest transformation occurred in the uplands, with substantial acreage converted from forest to cropland. Between 1938 and 1993, however, agriculture decreased in the upland areas as hilly areas reverted to forest cover. At the same time, agriculture expanded in the bottomlands as this land was drained for farming. Third, there are interesting patterns within these categories of land‐use change, as soil productivity is an indicator of what lands were taken out of cropland and converted back to grassland and forest.     

Implications of measurement metrics on soil freezing curves: A simulation of freeze–thaw hysteresis

Soil freeze–thaw events have important implications for water resources, flood risk, land productivity, and climate change. A property of these phenomena is the relationship between unfrozen water content and sub-freezing temperature, known as the soil freezing characteristic curve (SFC). It is documented that this relationship exhibits hysteretic behaviour when frozen soil thaws, leading to the definition of the soil thawing characteristic curve (STC). Although explanations have been given for SFC/STC hysteresis, the effect that ‘scale’ – particularly ‘measurement scale’ – may have on these curves has received little attention. The most commonly used measurement scale metric is the ‘support’, which is the spatial (or temporal) unit within which the measured variable is integrated or soil volume sampled. We show (a) measurement support can influence the range and shape of the SFC and (b) hysteresis can be attributed, in part, to the support and location of the measurements comprising the SFC/STC. We simulated lab measured temperature, volumetric water content (VWC), and permittivity from soil samples undergoing freeze–thaw transitions using Hydrus-1D and a modified Dobson permittivity model. To assess the effect of measurement support and location on SFC/STC, we masked the simulated temperature and VWC/permittivity extent to match the instrument's support and location. By creating a detailed simulation of the intra- and inter-support variability associated with the penetration of a freezing front, we demonstrate how measurement support and location can influence the temperature range over which water freezing events are captured. We show it is possible to simulate hysteresis in homogenous media with purely geometric considerations, suggesting that SFC/STC hysteresis may be more of an apparent phenomenon than mechanistically real. Lastly, we develop an understanding of how the location and support of soil temperature and VWC/permittivity measurements influence the temperature range over which water freezing events are captured.