Tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific simulated in medium-resolution coupled general circulation models

This study examines the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific simulated in atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation models from the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. We first evaluate performances of eight models with atmospheric horizontal resolution of T63 or T106 by analyzing their daily-mean atmospheric outputs of twentieth-century climate simulations available from the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison database. The genesis frequency is validated against the best-track data issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Five of the eight models reproduce realistic horizontal distribution of the TC genesis with a large fraction over the 10°–20°N, 120°–150°E area. These five high-performance models also realistically simulate the summer–winter contrast of the frequency. However, detailed seasonal march is slightly unrealistic; four of the models overestimate the frequency in the early season (May–June) while all of them underestimate the frequency in the mature season (July–September). Reasons for these biases in the seasonal march for the five high-performance models are discussed using the TC genesis potential (GP) index proposed by Emanuel and Nolan (in Am Meteor Soc, pp 240–241, 2004). The simulated GP has seasonal biases consistent with those of the TC genesis frequency. For all five models, the seasonal biases in GP are consistent with those in environmental lower-tropospheric vorticity, vertical wind shear, and relative humidity, which can be attributed to the simulated behavior of monsoon trough. The observed trough migrates northward from the equatorial region to reach the 10°–20°N latitudinal band during the mature season and contributes to the TC frequency maximum, whereas the simulated trough migrates northward too rapidly and reaches this latitude band in the early season, leading to the overestimation of the TC genesis frequency. In the mature season, the simulated trough reaches as far as 15°–25°N, accompanied by a strong vertical shear south of the trough, providing an unfavorable condition for TC genesis. It is concluded that an adequate simulation of the monsoon trough behavior is essential for a better reproduction of the TC frequency seasonal march.     

Regional climate simulations of summer diurnal rainfall variations over East Asia and Southeast China

This study evaluates the performance of RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model Version 3) in simulating the East Asian rainfall, with emphasis on the diurnal variations of rainfall over Southeast China during the 1998–2002 summer (June–August) seasons. The evaluation focuses on the sensitivity of the choice of cumulus parameterizations and model domain. With the right setup, the spatial and temporal evolution of diurnal rainfall over Southeast China, which has not been well simulated by past studies, can be accurately simulated by RegCM3. Results show that the Emanuel cumulus scheme has a more realistic simulation of summer mean rainfall in East Asia, while the GFC (Grell scheme with the Frisch-Chappell convective closure assumption) scheme is better in simulating the diurnal variations of rainfall over Southeast China. The better performance of these two schemes [relative to the other two schemes in RegCM3: the Kuo scheme and the GAS (Grell scheme with the Arakawa–Schubert closure assumption) scheme] can be attributed to the reasonable reproduction of the major formation mechanism of rainfall—the moisture flux convergence—over Southeast China. Furthermore, when the simulation domain covers the entire Tibetan Plateau, the diurnal variations of rainfall over Southeast China are found to exhibit a noticeable improvement without changes in the physics schemes.     

Recent Decrease in the Difference in Tropical Cyclone Occurrence between the Atlantic and the Western North Pacific

Climatologically, among all ocean basins, the western North Pacific (WNP) has the largest annual number of tropical cyclones (TCs) of around 26 while the Atlantic has around 13, yielding a difference of 13. However, the difference is –7 in 2020, with 30 TCs in the Atlantic and 23 in the WNP, which is the most negative difference within the last 46 years. In fact, during the last 26 years, the difference in TC number is below 10 in ten years, with four years being negative. Such a decreasing difference in TC number can be attributed to the natural multidecadal variation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, as well as other external forcings such as anthropogenic aerosol forcing and increased greenhouse gases, with the additional impact from the La Ni?a condition. This result has significant implications on climate model projections of future TC activity in the two ocean basins.     

Influence of South China Sea SST and the ENSO on Winter Rainfall over South China

The present study investigates the influence of South China Sea (SCS) SSTand ENSO on winter (January--February--March; JFM) rainfall over South Chinaand its dynamic processes by using station observations for the period1951--2003, Met Office Hadley Center SST data for the period 1900--2008, andERA-40 reanalysis data for the period 1958--2002. It is found that JFMrainfall over South China has a significant correlation with Nino-3 andSCS SST. Analyses show that in El Nino or positive SCS SST anomalyyears, southwesterly anomalies at 700 hPa dominate over the South China Sea,which in turn transports more moisture into South China and favors increasedrainfall. A partial regression analysis indicates that the independent ENSOinfluence on winter rainfall occurs mainly over South China,whereas SCS SST has a larger independent influence on winter rainfall innorthern part of South China. The temperature over South China shows an obvious decrease at300 hPa and an increase near the surface, with the former induced byNino-3 and the latter SCS SST anomalies. This enhances the convectiveinstability and weakens the potential vorticity (PV), which explains thestrengthening of ascending motion and the increase of JFM rainfall overSouth China.     

Periodic orbits of the elliptic restricted problem for the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system

A systematic approach to generate periodic orbits in the elliptic restricted problem of three bodies in introduced. The approach is based on (numerical) continuation from periodic orbits of the first and second kind in the circular restricted problem to periodic orbits in the elliptic restricted problem. Two families of periodic orbits of the elliptic restricted problem are found by this approach. The mass ratio of the primaries of these orbits is equal to that of the Sun-Jupiter system. The sidereal mean motions between the infinitesimal body and the smaller primary are in a 2:5 resonance, so as to approximate the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system. The linear stability of these periodic orbits are studied as functions of the eccentricities of the primaries and of the infinitesimal body. The results show that both stable and unstable periodic orbits exist in the elliptic restricted problem that are close to the actual Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system. However, the periodic orbit closest to the actual Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system is (linearly) stable.     

Assimilating along-track SLA data using the EnOI in an eddy resolving model of the Agulhas system

The greater Agulhas Current is one of the most energetic current systems in the global ocean. It plays a fundamental role in determining the mean state and variability of the regional marine environment, affecting its resources and ecosystem, the regional weather and the global climate on a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. In the absence of a coherent in-situ and satellite-based observing system in the region, modelling and data assimilation techniques play a crucial role in both furthering the quantitative understanding and providing better forecasts of this complicated western boundary current system. In this study, we use a regional implementation of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model and assimilate along-track satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) data using the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) data assimilation scheme. This study lays the foundation towards the development of a regional prediction system for the greater Agulhas Current system. Comparisons to independent in-situ drifter observations show that data assimilation reduces the error compared to a free model run over a 2-year period. Mesoscale features are placed in more consistent agreement with the drifter trajectories and surface velocity errors are reduced. While the model-based forecasts of surface velocities are not as accurate as persistence forecasts derived from satellite altimeter observations, the error calculated from the drifter measurements for eddy kinetic energy is significantly lower in the assimilation system compared to the persistence forecast. While the assimilation of along-track SLA data introduces a small bias in sea surface temperatures, the representation of water mass properties and deep current velocities in the Agulhas system is improved.