Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discard mitigation - what we can learn from waste minimization practices in other natural resources?

Solutions to the problem of discarding in fisheries have been debated for decades. Despite this attention, measures to ameliorate discarding have had limited success. Regulators, researchers, and industry continue to struggle with fisheries management and foregone yield in the face of the continued wastage of valuable resources due to discarding.Waste minimization and by-product utilization are powerful imperatives in other sectors that are also reliant on the harvest of natural resources. This paper considers the performance of these sectors in waste minimization and by-product utilization, with the aim of identifying practices and processes that may be applied to ameliorate discarding in fisheries.This paper describes the handling, utilization, and mitigation of discards and waste in the livestock farming, agriculture, mining, and waste management industries, and in particular, in forestry. In terms of biological impact, economic objectives, and management approaches the harvesting of trees has substantial similarities to industrialized fishing. However, the forestry sector has found ways to utilize almost 100% of the natural product harvest by establishing markets and new products. Analogous developments within the fishing industry could substantially improve sustainability through reduced levels of discarding and wastage. Based on the experiences of these sectors it is suggested that evaluations of potential Management Strategies are developed to specifically examine discard mitigation approaches on a broader scale than previously conducted.     

Using impacts of deep-level mining to research karst hydrology—a Darcy-based approach to predict the future of dried-up dolomitic springs in the Far West Rand goldfield (South Africa). Part 2: predicting inter-compartmental flow and final groundwater tables

Some of the world’s deepest goldmines operate below dolomitic karst aquifers in the Far West Rand (FWR) goldfield, South Africa. Associated impacts include the continuous dewatering of karst aquifers for over six decades and irreversible changes of the hydrogeological setting. Affecting an area of approximately 400 km² by drawing down the water table up to 700 m, these impacts, and the large amounts of data generated in the process, are used as unique research opportunities to better understand the complex karst hydrology. The focus of this study is on predicting final water table elevations in rewatered aquifers after mining ceases taking the fact that mines hydraulically linked previously disconnected aquifers into account. While part 1 of this series develops the conceptual model, this second part utilises large sets of pertinent data to calculate actual flow rates for predicting the fate of dried up springs after mine closure. Following a Darcy-based approach first applied by Swart et al. (Environ Geol 44:751–770, 2003a) it is not only predicted that the springs will flow again but also shown that linear relationships exist between flow rates through a combined system of karst-fractured aquifers overlying the mine void and the associated hydraulic head driving them. This suggests that—at this scale—porous media-based equations can be meaningfully used to predict flow in non-porous media.     

Ionospheric Scintillation and Dynamics of Fresnel-Scale Irregularities in the Inner Region of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly

This paper reports differences in the occurrence statistics of global positioning system (GPS) L-band scintillations at observational sites located in the inner regions of the northern and southern crests of the equatorial ionization anomaly. Ground-based GPS data acquired at the closed magnetically aligned stations of Manaus (3.1°S; 59.9°W; dip lat. 6.2°N) and Cuiabá (15.5°S; 56.1°W; dip. lat. 6.2°S), Brazil, from December 2001 to February 2007 are used in the analysis. The drift dynamics of Fresnel-scale ionospheric irregularities at the southern station of Cuiabá are also investigated. Only geomagnetically quiet days with the sum of daily Kp < 24 were used in the analysis statistics and in the irregularity drift studies. The results reveal a clear dependence of the scintillation occurrence with the solar activity, but there exists an asymmetry in the percentage of scintillation occurrence between the two stations throughout the period analyzed. The nocturnal occurrence of the scintillations over Cuiabá is predominantly larger than over Manaus, but this scenario seems to change with the decline in the solar activity (mainly during local post-midnight hours). A broad minimum and maximum in the scintillation occurrence appears to occur over both the stations, respectively, during the June solstice (winter) and December solstice (summer) months. The dynamics of the Fresnel-scale irregularities, as investigated from the estimations of the mean zonal drift velocities, reveals that the amplitude of the eastward drifts tends to reduce with the decline in the solar activity. The magnitude of the zonal drift velocities during the December solstice months is larger than during the equinoxes, with the differences being more pronounced at solar maximum years. Other relevant aspects of the observations, with complementary data from a low-latitude ionospheric model, are highlighted and discussed.     

Age and source material of the Kingash ultramafic-mafic massif,East Sayan

The REE distribution patterns and Nd whole-rock and mineral isotope ratios of the Kingash ultramafic-mafic massif enabled us to propose a multistage history for its evolution at 1410 and 875 Ma. These stages reflect the magmatic evolution of the Siberian paleocontinent margin during the Late Precambrian. The age of metamorphism of the massif during collision and accretion in the Early Paleozoic (∼500 Ma) was obtained based on a Sm-Nd mineral isochron from rheomorphic veined albitite. The Nd and Sr isotopic compositions of rocks from the Kingash massif suggest mantle sources for picritic and basic magmas, which are thought to have originated by mixing of different proportions of depleted (PREMA or DM) and enriched (EM) melts. The initial isotope ratios of the parental melts transformed during interaction with Sr-rich material from the host metasedimentary complexes.     

Studies of temperature effects of dust storms

We studied the temperature variations of the lower air layer caused by dust content using a dust storm in Dushanbe in November 2007 as an example. Quantitative estimates of air cooling and a decrease in the diurnal temperature difference due to a diminishing horizontal visibility range are given. Observations of air temperature variations due to the dust content of the atmosphere in an arid zone are presented. The critical value of aerosol concentration for toggling between the greenhouse and antigreenhouse effects is determined. The long-term effect of dust aerosol on climate is analyzed.     

Transport rate of drifting snow and the mean wind speed profile

Transport rates, measured by weighing snow blown into a filter fabric trap, were greater over hard snow or ice than for the same wind speed over soft, fresh snow surfaces. Analysis of wind speed profiles from nine blizzards showed that friction between moving particles and the surface was less, and particle speeds were greater over hard surfaces. Transport rates at a given wind speed increased rapidly as aerodynamic roughness decreased in the rough-smooth transition region. Bagnold's theory for bed load transport provided a useful framework for the analysis.     

A very large scale GIS-based groundwater flow model for the Nubian sandstone aquifer in Eastern Sahara (Egypt,northern Sudan and eastern Libya)

A three-dimensional GIS-based groundwater flow model for the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer in the eastern Sahara was developed and calibrated under steady-state and transient conditions. The model was used to simulate the response of the aquifer to climatic changes that occurred during the last 25,000 years. The simulation results indicated that the groundwater in this aquifer was formed by infiltration during the wet periods 20,000 and 5,000 years b.p. The recharge of groundwater due to regional groundwater flow from more humid areas in the south was excluded. It also indicates that the Nubian Aquifer System is a fossil aquifer, which had been in an unsteady state condition for the last 3,000 years.

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Resumen Fue desarrollado un modelo de flujo de agua subterránea en tres dimensiones, basado en un SIG, para el Acuífero Arenisca Nubian en el Sahara Oriental, el cual fue calibrado para condiciones de estado estacionario y transitorio. El modelo se usó para simular la respuesta del acuífero a los cambios climáticos que ocurrieron durante los últimos 25000 años. Los resultados de esta simulación indicaron que el agua subterránea en este acuífero, se formó por infiltración, durante los períodos húmedos que hubo hace 20000 y 5000 años, antes del presente. Fue excluida la recarga del acuífero debida a un flujo regional de agua subterránea proveniente de áreas con un clima más húmedo en el sur. El modelo también muestra, que el Sistema Acuífero Nubian es un acuífero fósil, el cual ha permanecido en una condición de estado no estacionario, durante los últimos tres mil años.

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Résumé Pour laquifère gréseux Nubien de Sahara -Est on a mis au points un modèle tridimensionnel, basé sur GIS. Le modèle a été calibré tant pour lécoulement stationnaire que pour lécoulement transitoire. On a simulé après la réponse de laquifère aux changements climatiques des derniers 25000 ans. Les résultats des simulations indiquent que la nappe a été rechargée par des infiltrations pendant une période humide qui sétend 5000 et 20000 ans, dès temps actuel. On na pas pris en compte la recharge de laquifère par la zone plus humide située dans sa partie sud. Le modèle indique aussi que leau de laquifère Nubien est une eau fossile qui a eu un écoulement transitoire pendant les derniers 3000 ans.