Regional ash fall hazard II: Asia-Pacific modelling results and implications

In a companion paper (this volume), the authors propose a methodology for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional scale. In this study, the methodology is applied to the Asia-Pacific region, determining the hazard from 190 volcanoes to over one million square kilometre of urban area. Ash fall hazard is quantified for each square kilometre grid cell of urban area in terms of the annual exceedance probability (AEP), and its inverse, the average recurrence interval (ARI), for ash falls exceeding 1, 10 and 100?mm. A surrogate risk variable, the Population-Weighted Hazard Score: the product of AEP and population density, approximates the relative risk for each grid cell. Within the Asia-Pacific region, urban areas in Indonesia are found to have the highest levels of hazard and risk, while Australia has the lowest. A clear demarcation emerges between the hazard in countries close to and farther from major subduction plate boundaries, with the latter having ARIs at least 2 orders of magnitude longer for the same thickness thresholds. Countries with no volcanoes, such as North Korea and Malaysia, also face ash falls from volcanoes in neighbouring countries. Ash falls exceeding 1?mm are expected to affect more than one million people living in urban areas within the study region; in Indonesia, Japan and the Philippines, this situation could occur with ARIs less than 40?years.     

Influence of sea surface wind wave turbulence upon wind-induced circulation, tide–surge interaction and bed stress

A three-dimensional finite volume unstructured mesh model of the west coast of Britain, with high resolution in the coastal regions, is used to investigate the role of wind wave turbulence and wind and tide forced currents in producing maximum bed stress in the eastern Irish Sea. The spatial distribution of the maximum bed stress, which is important in sediment transport problems, is determined, together with how it is modified by the direction of wind forced currents, tide–surge interaction and a surface source of wind wave turbulence associated with wave breaking. Initial calculations show that to first order the distribution of maximum bed stress is determined by the tide. However, since maximum sediment transport occurs at times of episodic events, such as storm surges, their effects upon maximum bed stresses are examined for the case of strong northerly, southerly and westerly wind forcing. Calculations show that due to tide–surge interaction both the tidal distribution and the surge are modified by non-linear effects. Consequently, the magnitude and spatial distribution of maximum bed stress during major wind events depends upon wind direction. In addition calculations show that a surface source of turbulence due to wind wave breaking in shallow water can influence the maximum bed stress. In turn, this influences the wind forced flow and hence the movement of suspended sediment. Calculations of the spatial variability of maximum bed stress indicate the level of measurements required for model validation.     

Examining the effects of climate change, acidic deposition, and copper sulphate poisoning on long-term changes in cladoceran assemblages

We analyzed cladoceran remains in dated sediment cores from four lakes in Nova Scotia, Canada, to assess the potential effects of climate warming, acidic deposition, and a major fish kill caused by copper sulphate poisoning on assemblage composition and Bosmina size structure. In three of the four lakes, we observed a decline in Daphnia in the early 20th century that might be indicative of limnological changes in response to acidic deposition or increased fish predation. The appearance of the softwater zooplankter Holopedium glacialis in Hirtle Lake ~1995 might be linked to declining aqueous [Ca], a consequence of acidic deposition. No shifts in subfossil Cladocera were identified in this study that could be linked to climate warming. The application of copper sulphate as a fish poison to Trefry Lake (the lake was later re-stocked with trout fry) in 1938 resulted in dramatic and persistent changes in the cladoceran assemblage, where littoral Cladocera declined in relative abundance and small, pelagic Bosmina increased. In addition, we observed a reduction in the mean body size of Bosmina in post-1938 sediments, suggesting that planktivorous fish abundance increased and/or predatory copepods and other invertebrate predators decreased. No recovery of Cladocera to pre-disturbance conditions was observed. Overall, our data suggest that acidic deposition and calcium decline may have had a modest impact on the cladoceran communities in these lakes, but the effects of copper sulphate poisoning on the food web in Trefry Lake were widespread, and still persist over 70?years following this intervention.     

The problem of underpowered rivers

This study has hypothesized that for many rivers the trade-off between flow accumulation and the decrease in slope along channel length means that stream power increases downstream and, moreover, that given the low slope angles in headwater and low-order streams, they would have insufficient stream power to erode let alone transport sediment. The study considered the stream power profile, the particle travel distances and the application of the Hjulström curve based on the velocity profile of nine, large UK catchments. The study showed that:

1. Some rivers never showed a maximum in their longitudinal stream power profile, implying that some rivers never develop a deposition zone before they discharge at the tidal limit.
2. Particle travel distances during a bankfull discharge event showed that for some rivers 91% of the upper main channel would not be cleared of sediment. Furthermore, while some rivers could transport a 2 mm particle their entire length in one bankfull event, for another river it would take 89 such events.
3. The Hjulström curve shows that for three of the study rivers the upper 20 km of the river was not capable of eroding a 2 μm particle.
4. The study has shown that for all rivers studied, erosion is focused downstream and deposition upstream. Many UK rivers have a dead zone where, on time scales of the order of centuries, no erosion or transport occurs and erosion only occurs in the lower courses of the channel where discharge rather than slope dominates – we propose these as underpowered rivers.

© 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Tyre track pools and puddles – Anthropogenic contributors to aquatic biodiversity

Twelve sites of tyre track pools and puddles situated in woodland, heath and pasture in Dorset UK were examined to determine their macroinvertebrate species richness and community changes over the course of one year.174 taxa were found with Diptera (59) and Coleoptera (48) contributing 61% of the total. The most frequently occurring and ubiquitous groups were nematoceran dipterans, Oligochaeta, Coleoptera, Crustacea and Lamellibranchiata.Species richness varied with season and on average was highest in March and November samples. On average only 26% (range 16–40%) of the combined total number of taxa found in spring (March) and autumn (November) samples from a site were also found there in each of these seasons individually, indicating a high species turnover through the year.The tyre track pools contributed to local aquatic biodiversity by adding 29 taxa to previously published taxa lists from aquatic habitats in the area. The relative richness of the tyre track pools is attributed to their successional variation in a heterogeneous landscape.Conservation value of 9 of the 12 sites was rated Very high to High and nine regionally notable or rare taxa were recorded. It is suggested that the important conservation status of the tyre track pools warrants greater recognition and further intensive study.     

An archeomagnetic analysis of burnt grain bin floors from ca. 1200 to 1250 AD Iron-Age South Africa

Recognition of the rapid decay of Earth’s magnetic field over the last 150 years, chronicled in magnetic observatory and satellite data, highlights the need for a higher resolution record of geomagnetic field behavior over the past millennium. Such a record would help us better understand the nature of the recent dramatic changes. A limitation of the existing database is undersampling of the Southern Hemisphere. Here we investigate the potential of obtaining archeomagnetic data from Iron-Age burnt grain bins from southern Africa. These structures preserve oriented material that can record both paleodirections and paleointensity information. Directional data collected from three sites (ca. 1200–1250 AD) fall 9–22° to the East of predictions. Thellier–Coe and Shaw paleointensity results differ from model values by ～15%. The consistency of results between the three sites suggests that further investigations of these materials with different ages could markedly improve the current spatial distribution of the archeomagnetic database.     

Scattered ground‐roll attenuation using model‐driven interferometry

Scattered ground roll is a type of noise observed in land seismic data that can be particularly difficult to suppress. Typically, this type of noise cannot be removed using conventional velocity‐based filters. In this paper, we discuss a model‐driven form of seismic interferometry that allows suppression of scattered ground‐roll noise in land seismic data. The conventional cross‐correlate and stack interferometry approach results in scattered noise estimates between two receiver locations (i.e. as if one of the receivers had been replaced by a source). For noise suppression, this requires that each source we wish to attenuate the noise from is co‐located with a receiver. The model‐driven form differs, as the use of a simple model in place of one of the inputs for interferometry allows the scattered noise estimate to be made between a source and a receiver. This allows the method to be more flexible, as co‐location of sources and receivers is not required, and the method can be applied to data sets with a variety of different acquisition geometries. A simple plane‐wave model is used, allowing the method to remain relatively data driven, with weighting factors for the plane waves determined using a least‐squares solution. Using a number of both synthetic and real two‐dimensional (2D) and three‐dimensional (3D) land seismic data sets, we show that this model‐driven approach provides effective results, allowing suppression of scattered ground‐roll noise without having an adverse effect on the underlying signal.     

Effect of NAPL Source Morphology on Mass Transfer in the Vadose Zone

The generation of vapor‐phase contaminant plumes within the vadose zone is of interest for contaminated site management. Therefore, it is important to understand vapor sources such as non‐aqueous‐phase liquids (NAPLs) and processes that govern their volatilization. The distribution of NAPL, gas, and water phases within a source zone is expected to influence the rate of volatilization. However, the effect of this distribution morphology on volatilization has not been thoroughly quantified. Because field quantification of NAPL volatilization is often infeasible, a controlled laboratory experiment was conducted in a two‐dimensional tank (28 cm × 15.5 cm × 2.5 cm) with water‐wet sandy media and an emplaced trichloroethylene (TCE) source. The source was emplaced in two configurations to represent morphologies encountered in field settings: (1) NAPL pools directly exposed to the air phase and (2) NAPLs trapped in water‐saturated zones that were occluded from the air phase. Airflow was passed through the tank and effluent concentrations of TCE were quantified. Models were used to analyze results, which indicated that mass transfer from directly exposed NAPL was fast and controlled by advective‐dispersive‐diffusive transport in the gas phase. However, sources occluded by pore water showed strong rate limitations and slower effective mass transfer. This difference is explained by diffusional resistance within the aqueous phase. Results demonstrate that vapor generation rates from a NAPL source will be influenced by the soil water content distribution within the source. The implications of the NAPL morphology on volatilization in the context of a dynamic water table or climate are discussed.     

Induction Sounding of the Earth’s Mantle at a New Russian Geophysical Observatory

Deep magnetotelluric (MT) sounding data were collected and processed in the western part of the East European Craton (EEC). The MT sounding results correspond well with impedances obtained by magnetovariation (MV) sounding on the new geophysical observatory situated not far from the western border of Russia. Inversion based on combined data of both induction soundings let us evaluate geoelectrical structure of the Earth’s crust and upper and mid-mantle at depths up to 2000 km, taking into account the harmonics of 11-year variations. Results obtained by different authors and methods are compared with similar investigations on the EEC such as international projects CEMES in Central Europe and BEAR in Fennoscandia.