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631.
Diatoms were identified and enumerated from a surface sediment calibration set of 50 lakes in northwestern Québec. The relationship
between species composition and environmental variables was examined using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). Forward
selection and Monte Carlo permutation tests in CCA indicated that diatom species distributions in the data set are most strongly
correlated to lakewater pH. A strong (r
2
boot = 0.83) weighted averaging calibration model, that includes bootstrapped error estimates, was developed for inferring past
lakewater pH. Using this model, temporal changes in pH were reconstructed for two kettle lakes, Lac de la Pépinière and Lac
Perron. Based on limnological data, both the study lakes were expected to have recently acidified due to increased acidic
precipitation and increases in anthropogenic metal loading. However, our long-term pH inference data indicate that these lakes
were naturally acidic during pre-industrial times. Nonetheless, the rate of acidification, particularly in Lac de la Pépinière,
has accelerated in the last ∼75 years. These long-term pH records developed for the dilute lakes in northwestern Québec suggest
that the region has received increased atmospheric pollutants from the nearby Horne smelter in Rouyn-Noranda. The pH inference
profiles are markedly different from many other paleolimnological studies in acid-sensitive regions of Canada that have become
acidic primarily as a result of industrial activities.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: ) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献
632.
633.
634.
Controls on Spatial Variability of Uranium in Sandstone Aquifers 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
635.
636.
S. Abhilash Someshwar Das S. R. Kalsi M. Das Gupta K. Mohankumar John P. George S. K. Banerjee S. B. Thampi D. Pradhan 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1491-1509
Pre-monsoon rainfall around Kolkata (northeastern part of India) is mostly of convective origin as 80% of the seasonal rainfall
is produced by Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). Accurate prediction of the intensity and structure of these convective
cloud clusters becomes challenging, mostly because the convective clouds within these clusters are short lived and the inaccuracy
in the models initial state to represent the mesoscale details of the true atmospheric state. Besides the role in observing
the internal structure of the precipitating systems, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) provides an important data source for mesoscale
and microscale weather analysis and forecasting. An attempt has been made to initialize the storm-scale numerical model using
retrieved wind fields from single Doppler radar. In the present study, Doppler wind velocities from the Kolkata Doppler weather
radar are assimilated into a mesoscale model, MM5 model using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR)
system for the prediction of intense convective events that occurred during 0600 UTC on 5 May and 0000 UTC on 7 May, 2005.
In order to evaluate the impact of the DWR wind data in simulating these severe storms, three experiments were carried out.
The results show that assimilation of Doppler radar wind data has a positive impact on the prediction of intensity, organization
and propagation of rain bands associated with these mesoscale convective systems. The assimilation system has to be modified
further to incorporate the radar reflectivity data so that simulation of the microphysical and thermodynamic structure of
these convective storms can be improved. 相似文献
637.
John Douglas 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2007,5(3):363-376
Accurate estimates of the ground motions that occurred during damaging earthquakes are a vital part of many aspects of earthquake
engineering, such as the study of the size and cause of the uncertainties within earthquake risk assessments. This article
compares a number of methods to estimate the ground shaking that occurred on Guadeloupe (French Antilles) during the 21st
November 2004 (M
w
6.3) Les Saintes earthquake, with the aim of providing more accurate shaking estimates for the investigation of the sources
of uncertainties within loss evaluations, based on damage data from this event. The various techniques make differing use
of the available ground-motion recordings of this earthquake and by consequence the estimates obtained by the different approaches
are associated with differing uncertainties. Ground motions on the French Antilles are affected by strong local site effects,
which have been extensively investigated in previous studies. In this article, use is made of these studies in order to improve
the shaking estimates. It is shown that the simple methods neglecting the spatial correlation of earthquake shaking lead to
uncertainties similar to those predicted by empirical ground-motion models and that these are uniform across the whole of
Guadeloupe. In contrast, methods (such as the ShakeMap approach) that take account of the spatial correlation in motions demonstrate
that shaking within roughly 10 km of a recording station (covering a significant portion of the investigated area) can be
defined with reasonable accuracy but that motions at more distant points are not well constrained. 相似文献
638.
In this study, we formulate an improved finite element model‐updating method to address the numerical difficulties associated with ill conditioning and rank deficiency. These complications are frequently encountered model‐updating problems, and occur when the identification of a larger number of physical parameters is attempted than that warranted by the information content of the experimental data. Based on the standard bounded variables least‐squares (BVLS) method, which incorporates the usual upper/lower‐bound constraints, the proposed method (henceforth referred to as BVLSrc) is equipped with novel sensitivity‐based relative constraints. The relative constraints are automatically constructed using the correlation coefficients between the sensitivity vectors of updating parameters. The veracity and effectiveness of BVLSrc is investigated through the simulated, yet realistic, forced‐vibration testing of a simple framed structure using its frequency response function as input data. By comparing the results of BVLSrc with those obtained via (the competing) pure BVLS and regularization methods, we show that BVLSrc and regularization methods yield approximate solutions with similar and sufficiently high accuracy, while pure BVLS method yields physically inadmissible solutions. We further demonstrate that BVLSrc is computationally more efficient, because, unlike regularization methods, it does not require the laborious a priori calculations to determine an optimal penalty parameter, and its results are far less sensitive to the initial estimates of the updating parameters. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
639.
Brendon A. Bradley Rajesh P. Dhakal Misko Cubrinovski John B. Mander Greg A. MacRae 《地震工程与结构动力学》2007,36(14):2211-2225
An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these ‘exact’ hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance‐based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi‐analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi‐analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed‐form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the ‘exact’ numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
640.
An eruption on the eastern flank of Piton de la Fournaise volcano started on 16 November, 2002 after 10 months of quiescence.
After a relatively constant level of activity during the first 13 days of the eruption, lava discharge, volcanic tremor and
seismicity increased from 29 November to 3 December. Lava effusion suddenly ceased on 3 December while shallow earthquakes
beneath the Dolomieu summit crater were still recorded at a rate of about one per minute. This unusual activity continued
and increased in intensity over the next three weeks, ending with the formation of a pit crater within Dolomieu. Based on
ground deformation, measured by rapid-static and continuous GPS and an extensometer, seismic data, and lava effusion patterns,
the eruptive period is divided into five stages: 1) slow summit inflation and sporadic seismicity; 2) rapid summit inflation
and a short seismic crisis; 3) rapid flank inflation, onset of summit deflation, sporadic seismicity, accompanied by stable
effusion; 4) flank inflation, coupled with summit deflation, intense seismicity, and increased lava effusion; and finally
5) little deflation, intense shallow seismicity, and the end of lava effusion. We propose a model in which the pre-intrusive
inflation of Stage 1 in the months preceding the eruption was caused by a magma body located near sea level. The magma reservoir
was the source of an intrusion rising under the summit during Stage 2. In Stage 3, the magma ponded at a shallow level in
the edifice while the lateral injection of a radial dike reached the surface on the eastern flank of the basaltic volcano,
causing lava effusion. Pressure decrease in the magmatic plumbing system followed, resulting in upward migration of a collapse
front, forming a subterranean column of debris by faulting and stoping. This caused intense shallow seismicity, increase in
discharge of lava and volcanic tremor at the lateral vent in Stage 4 and, eventually the formation of a pit crater in Stage
5. 相似文献