A Comparative Analysis of Weights of Evidence,Evidential Belief Functions,and Fuzzy Logic for Mineral Potential Mapping Using Incomplete Data at the Scale of Investigation

Large amounts of digital data must be analyzed and integrated to generate mineral potential maps, which can be used for exploration targeting. The quality of the mineral potential maps is dependent on the quality of the data used as inputs, with higher quality inputs producing higher quality outputs. In mineral exploration, particularly in regions with little to no exploration history, datasets are often incomplete at the scale of investigation with data missing due to incomplete mapping or the unavailability of data over certain areas. It is not always clear that datasets are incomplete, and this study examines how mineral potential mapping results may differ in this context. Different methods of mineral potential mapping provide different ways of dealing with analyzing and integrating incomplete data. This study examines the weights of evidence (WofE), evidential belief function and fuzzy logic methods of mineral potential mapping using incomplete data from the Carajás mineral province, Brazil to target for orogenic gold mineralization. Results demonstrate that WofE is the best one able to predict the location of known mineralization within the study area when either complete or unacknowledged incomplete data are used. It is suggested that this is due to the use of Bayes’ rule, which can account for “missing data.” The results indicate the effectiveness of WofE for mineral potential mapping with incomplete data.     

Data-Driven Predictive Modeling of Mineral Prospectivity Using Random Forests: A Case Study in Catanduanes Island (Philippines)

The Random Forests (RF) algorithm is a machine learning method that has recently been demonstrated as a viable technique for data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity, and thus, it is instructive to further examine its usefulness in this particular field. A case study was carried out using data from Catanduanes Island (Philippines) to investigate further (a) if RF modeling can be used for data-driven modeling of mineral prospectivity in areas with few (i.e., <20) mineral occurrences and (b) if RF modeling can handle predictor variables with missing values. We found that RF modeling outperforms evidential belief (EB) modeling of prospectivity for hydrothermal Au–Cu deposits in Catanduanes Island, where 17 hydrothermal Au–Cu prospects are known to exist. Moreover, just like EB modeling, RF modeling allows analysis of the spatial relationships between known prospects and individual layers of predictor data. Furthermore, RF modeling can handle missing values in predictor data through an RF-based imputation technique whereas in EB modeling, missing values are simply represented by maximum uncertainty. Therefore, the RF algorithm is a potentially useful method for data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity in regions with few (i.e., <20) occurrences of mineral deposits of the type sought. However, further testing of the method in other regions with few mineral occurrences is warranted to fully determine its usefulness in data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity.     

Application of Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machine in Mapping Gold Potential Areas for Further Drilling in the Sari-Gunay Gold Deposit,NW Iran

In this contribution, we used discriminant analysis (DA) and support vector machine (SVM) to model subsurface gold mineralization by using a combination of the surface soil geochemical anomalies and earlier bore data for further drilling at the Sari-Gunay gold deposit, NW Iran. Seventy percent of the data were used as the training data and the remaining 30 % were used as the testing data. Sum of the block grades, obtained by kriging, above the cutoff grade (0.5 g/t) was multiplied by the thickness of the blocks and used as productivity index (PI). Then, the PI variable was classified into three classes of background, medium, and high by using fractal method. Four classification functions of SVM and DA methods were calculated by the training soil geochemical data. Also, by using all the geochemical data and classification functions, the general extension of the gold mineralized zones was predicted. The mineral prediction models at the Sari-Gunay hill were used to locate high and moderate potential areas for further infill systematic and reconnaissance drilling, respectively. These models at Agh-Dagh hill and the area between Sari-Gunay and Agh-Dagh hills were used to define the moderate and high potential areas for further reconnaissance drilling. The results showed that the nu-SVM method with 73.8 % accuracy and c-SVM with 72.3 % accuracy worked better than DA methods.     

Testing optically stimulated luminescence dating on sand-sized quartz of deltaic deposits from the Sperchios delta plain,central Greece

This study reports on the first investigation into the potential of luminescence dating to establish a chronological framework for the depositional sequences of the Sperchios delta plain, central Greece. A series of three borehole cores(20 m deep) and two shallow cores(4 m deep), from across the delta plain, were extracted, and samples were collected for luminescence dating. The luminescence ages of sand-sized quartz grains were obtained from small aliquots of quartz, using the Single-Aliquot Regenerative-dose(SAR) protocol.The equivalent dose determination included a series of tests and the selection of the Minimum Age Model(MAM) as the most appropriate statistical model. This made it possible to confirm the applicability of quartz Optically Stimulated Luminescence(OSL) dating to establish absolute chronology for deltaic sediments from the Sperchios delta plain.Testing age results of the five cores showed that the deltaic sediments were deposited during the Holocene.A relatively rapid deposition is implied for the top ~14 m possibly as a result of the deceleration in the rate of the sea-level rise and the transition to terrestrial conditions, while on the deeper parts, the reduced sedimentation rate may indicate a lagoonal or coastal environment.     

A method of alternating characteristics with application to advection-dominated environmental systems

We present a numerical method for solving a class of systems of partial differential equations (PDEs) that arises in modeling environmental processes undergoing advection and biogeochemical reactions. The salient feature of these PDEs is that all partial derivatives appear in linear expressions. As a result, the system can be viewed as a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), albeit each one along a different characteristic. The method then consists of alternating between equations and integrating each one step-wise along its own characteristic, thus creating a customized grid on which solutions are computed. Since the solutions of such PDEs are generally smoother along their characteristics, the method offers the potential of using larger time steps while maintaining accuracy and reducing numerical dispersion. The advantages in efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method are demonstrated in two illustrative examples that simulate depth-resolved reactive transport and soil carbon cycling.     

Perspectives on lithospheric evolution through tectonomagmatic processes: a volume in honour of Jaroslav Dostal—an introduction

International Journal of Earth Sciences -     

Characterising the vertical separation of shale-gas source rocks and aquifers across England and Wales (UK)

Shale gas is considered by many to have the potential to provide the UK with greater energy security, economic growth and jobs. However, development of a shale gas industry is highly contentious due to environmental concerns including the risk of groundwater pollution. Evidence suggests that the vertical separation between exploited shale units and aquifers is an important factor in the risk to groundwater from shale gas exploitation. A methodology is presented to assess the vertical separation between different pairs of aquifers and shales that are present across England and Wales. The application of the method is then demonstrated for two of these pairs—the Cretaceous Chalk Group aquifer and the Upper Jurassic Kimmeridge Clay Formation, and the Triassic sandstone aquifer and the Carboniferous Bowland Shale Formation. Challenges in defining what might be considered criteria for ‘safe separation’ between a shale gas formation and an overlying aquifer are discussed, in particular with respect to uncertainties in geological properties, aquifer extents and determination of socially acceptable risk levels. Modelled vertical separations suggest that the risk of aquifer contamination from shale exploration will vary greatly between shale–aquifer pairs and between regions and this will need to be considered carefully as part of the risk assessment and management for any shale gas development.     

Hydrogeology of a montane headwater groundwater system downgradient of a coal-mine waste rock dump: Elk Valley,British Columbia,Canada

Steelmaking-coal waste rock placed in mountain catchments in the Elk Valley, British Columbia, Canada, drain constituents of interest (CIs) to surface water downgradient of the waste rock dumps. The role of groundwater in transporting CIs in the headwaters of mountain catchments is not well understood. This study characterizes the physical hydrogeology of a portion of a 10-km² headwater catchment (West Line Creek) downgradient of a 2.7-km² waste rock dump placed over a natural headwater valley-bottom groundwater system. The study site was instrumented with 13 monitoring wells. Drill core samples were collected to determine subsurface lithology and geotechnical properties. The groundwater system was characterized using field testing and water-level monitoring. The valley-bottom sediments were composed of unconsolidated glacial and meltwater successions (<64 m thick) deposited as a series of cut and fill structures overlying shale bedrock. An unconfined basal alluvial aquifer located above fractured bedrock was identified as the primary conduit for groundwater flow toward Line Creek (650 m from the toe of the dump). Discharge through the basal alluvial aquifer was estimated using the geometric mean hydraulic conductivity (±1 standard deviation). These calculations suggest groundwater discharge could account for approximately 15% (ranging from 2 to 60%) of the total water discharged from the watershed. The residence time from the base of the waste rock dump to Line Creek was estimated at <3 years. The groundwater system was defined as a snowmelt (i.e., nival) regime dominated by direct recharge (percolation of precipitation) across the catchment.     

Evaluating Tidal Wetland Restoration Performance Using National Estuarine Research Reserve System Reference Sites and the Restoration Performance Index (RPI)

Evaluations of tidal wetland restoration efforts suffer from a lack of appropriate reference sites and standardized methods among projects. To help address these issues, the National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) and the NOAA Restoration Center engaged in a partnership to monitor ecological responses and evaluate 17 tidal wetland restoration projects associated with five reserves. The goals of this study were to (1) determine the level of restoration achieved at each project using the restoration performance index (RPI), which compares change in parameters over time between reference and restoration sites, (2) compare hydrologic and excavation restoration projects using the RPI, (3) identify key indicator parameters for assessing restoration effectiveness, and (4) evaluate the value of the NERRS as reference sites for local restoration projects. We found that the RPI, modified for this study, was an effective tool for evaluating relative differences in restoration performance; most projects achieved an intermediate level of restoration from 2008 to 2010, and two sites became very similar to their paired reference sites, indicating that the restoration efforts were highly effective. There were no differences in RPI scores between hydrologic and excavation restoration project types. Two abiotic parameters (marsh platform elevation and groundwater level) were significantly correlated with vegetation community structure and thus can potentially influence restoration performance. Our results highlight the value of the NERRS as reference sites for assessing tidal wetland restoration projects and provide improved guidance for scientists and restoration practitioners by highlighting the RPI as a trajectory analysis tool and identifying key monitoring parameters.