Improved seismic hazard model with application to probabilistic seismic demand analysis

An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these ‘exact’ hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance‐based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi‐analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi‐analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed‐form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the ‘exact’ numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Persistent organic pollutants and stable isotopes in biopsy samples (2004/2006) from Southern Resident killer whales

“Southern Resident” killer whales include three “pods” (J, K and L) that reside primarily in Puget Sound/Georgia Basin during the spring, summer and fall. This population was listed as “endangered” in the US and Canada following a 20% decline between 1996 and 2001. The current study, using blubber/epidermis biopsy samples, contributes contemporary information about potential factors (i.e., levels of pollutants or changes in diet) that could adversely affect Southern Residents. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes indicated J- and L-pod consumed prey from similar trophic levels in 2004/2006 and also showed no evidence for a large shift in the trophic level of prey consumed by L-pod between 1996 and 2004/2006. ∑PCBs decreased for Southern Residents biopsied in 2004/2006 compared to 1993–1995. Surprisingly, however, a three-year-old male whale (J39) had the highest concentrations of ∑PBDEs, ∑HCHs and HCB. POP ratio differences between J- and L-pod suggested that they occupy different ranges in winter.     

Inferred ground motions on Guadeloupe during the 2004 Les Saintes earthquake

Accurate estimates of the ground motions that occurred during damaging earthquakes are a vital part of many aspects of earthquake engineering, such as the study of the size and cause of the uncertainties within earthquake risk assessments. This article compares a number of methods to estimate the ground shaking that occurred on Guadeloupe (French Antilles) during the 21st November 2004 (M _w 6.3) Les Saintes earthquake, with the aim of providing more accurate shaking estimates for the investigation of the sources of uncertainties within loss evaluations, based on damage data from this event. The various techniques make differing use of the available ground-motion recordings of this earthquake and by consequence the estimates obtained by the different approaches are associated with differing uncertainties. Ground motions on the French Antilles are affected by strong local site effects, which have been extensively investigated in previous studies. In this article, use is made of these studies in order to improve the shaking estimates. It is shown that the simple methods neglecting the spatial correlation of earthquake shaking lead to uncertainties similar to those predicted by empirical ground-motion models and that these are uniform across the whole of Guadeloupe. In contrast, methods (such as the ShakeMap approach) that take account of the spatial correlation in motions demonstrate that shaking within roughly 10 km of a recording station (covering a significant portion of the investigated area) can be defined with reasonable accuracy but that motions at more distant points are not well constrained.     

Effects of anthropogenic seawater acidification on acid-base balance in the sea urchin Psammechinus miliaris

The purple-tipped sea urchin, Psammechinus miliaris, was exposed to artificially acidified seawater treatments (pH(w) 6.16, 6.63 or 7.44) over a period of 8 days. Urchin mortality of 100% was observed at pH(w) 6.16 after 7 days and coincided with a pronounced hypercapnia in the coelomic fluid producing an irrecoverable acidosis. Coelomic fluid acid-base measures showed that an accumulation of CO(2) and a significant reduction in pH occurred in all treatments compared with controls. Bicarbonate buffering was employed in each case, reducing the resultant acidosis, but compensation was incomplete even under moderate environmental hypercapnia. Significant test dissolution was inferred from observable increases in the Mg(2+) concentration of the coelomic fluid under all pH treatments. We show that a chronic reduction of surface water pH to below 7.5 would be severely detrimental to the acid-base balance of this predominantly intertidal species; despite its ability to tolerate fluctuations in pCO(2) and pH in the rock pool environment. The absence of respiratory pigment (or any substantial protein in the coelomic fluid), a poor capacity for ionic regulation and dependency on a magnesium calcite test, make echinoids particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic acidification. Geological sequestration leaks may result in dramatic localised pH reductions, e.g. pH 5.8. P. miliaris is intolerant of pH 6.16 seawater and significant mortality is seen at pH 6.63.     

Field Evaluation of a Slim-Hole Borehole Induction Tool

The Geonics EM-39 borehole induction tool was field tested to evaluate its performance under controlled conditions. The effects of temperature changes and borehole fluids were found to be negligible under most conditions. The instrument can be calibrated in large bodies of water of known electrical conductivity. When properly calibrated, the ± 5 percent accuracy claimed by the manufacturer is obtainable. A geologic unit must be at least 4m thick for the electrical conductivity of the unit to be accurately measured. Geologic units thinner than 4m thick can be detected if the conductivity contrast to adjacent units is sufficiently large.     

Towards Improved Remedial Outcomes in Categorical Aquifers with an Iterative Ensemble Smoother

Categorical parameter distributions consisting of geologic facies with distinct properties, for example, high-permeability channels embedded in a low-permeability matrix, are common at contaminated sites. At these sites, low-permeability facies store solute mass, acting as secondary sources to higher-permeability facies, sustaining concentrations for decades while increasing risk and cleanup costs. Parameter estimation is difficult in such systems because the discontinuities in the parameter space hinder the inverse problem. This paper presents a novel approach based on Traveling Pilot Points (TRIPS) and an iterative ensemble smoother (IES) to solve the categorical inverse problem. Groundwater flow and solute transport in a hypothetical aquifer with a categorical parameter distribution are simulated using MODFLOW 6. Heads and concentrations are recorded at multiple monitoring locations. IES is used to generate posterior ensembles assuming a TRIPS prior and an approximate multi-Gaussian prior. The ensembles are used to predict solute concentrations and mass into the future. The evaluation also includes an assessment of how the number of measurements and the choice of the geological prior determine the characteristics of the posterior ensemble and the resulting predictions. The results indicate that IES was able to efficiently sample the posterior distribution and showed that even with an approximate geological prior, a high degree of parameterization and history matching could lead to parameter ensembles that can be useful for making certain types of predictions (heads, concentrations). However, the approximate geological prior was insufficient for predicting mass. The analysis demonstrates how decision-makers can quantify uncertainty and make informed decisions with an ensemble-based approach.     

Autosuspension and the energetics of two-phase flows: Reply to comments on ‘experimental test of autosuspension’ by J. B. Southard and M. E. Mackintosh

The experimental programme of Southard and Mackintosh (1981) provides a definitive refutation of the autosuspension criterion as it was originally defined. A simple energy budget for dilute two-phase flow is derived from continuum theory of mixtures; it shows that Bagnold's criterion is based on an arbitrary comparison of two elements of the complete two-phase system. It is recommended that facile, ab hoc criteria for the behaviour of such complex flows be avoided in favour of analyses based on fundamental equations of motion.     

Lichenometric dating of debris-flow deposits in the Scottish Highlands

Debris-flow deposits, dated by lichenometry, indicate that the majority of hillslope debris flows in Scotland have occurred within the last 500 years. Progressive weathering and climatic change can be discounted as the prime cause of the increase in the incidence of debris flows. The timing of the increase suggests that it is related to landuse changes in the Scottish Highlands during the 19th and early 20th centuries. Both burning and overgrazing can be cited as potential causal factors.     

The temporal and spatial development of landslides in the axmouth-lyme regis undercliffs national nature reserve,Devon

A chronology of landsliding is presented, including suggestions as to a date for initiation. Periods of activity known from historical sources are correlated with known periods of climatic deterioration. The current morphology of the landslide slopes is closely related to the geological succession and structure. These permit the landslides and their development to be differentiated on the basis of whole slope and toe morphology, and much of the whole-slope activity can be related to conditions at the toe. Examples of geomorphological maps, slope categories maps, and cross sections are presented along with an example of the ‘evolutionary’ maps which may be derived from Ordnance Survey plans and aerial photographs. These generally indicate that weakening of materials by weathering, seepage erosion at the toe, and marine erosion result in frequent mass movement events of a low magnitude. These events ultimately influence the stability of larger slipped blocks behind, which fail less frequently. It is suggested that whole-slope failures in this region have a maximum frequency of once in 120 to 150 years, and that problems of interpretation of historical accounts may mean that it is very much less frequent than this.     

On the effect of the rigid sidewall on the dynamic stiffness of embedded circular footings

The effect of the rigid sidewall, which is usually combined with embedded footings, on the dynamic stiffness of the footings is considered. An efficient numerical technique is used to calculate the static and dynamic stiffness of circular footings embedded in a stratum. The results show that the increase in static stiffness with increasing height of the sidewall is most significant in the case of rocking. The dynamic stiffness coefficients change considerably, if the sidewall extends higher than about half the depth of embedment. The damping coefficients corresponding to vertical vibrations and rocking are likewise affected by the height of the sidewall. The damping coefficients corresponding to torsional and horizontal vibrations increase considerably with increasing height of the sidewall.