RELAXING ASSUMPTIONS OF PERFECT INFORMATION IN PARK VISITATION MODELS*

Variables related to urban park awareness are identified and methods for relaxing assumptions of perfect information in park use models are discussed. Park awareness is related to park characteristics (age and degree of development of the park), population characteristics (race, age, length of residence, recreation participation), and distance. Park attributes are stronger predictors of both park awareness and use than is distance. These findings parallel similar research on the cognitive aspects of shopping decisions.     

The Earthquake Readiness Scale: The Development of a Valid and Reliable Unifactorial Measure

Preparedness is a key dependent variable in many studies examining people’s response to disasters such as earthquakes. A feature of many studies on this issue, however, is the lack of attention given to psychometric issues when constructing measures of preparedness. With regard to earthquake preparation, for example, many studies could be greatly improved by the use of a valid and reliable measure of preparedness. This research developed such a measure that assessed both low-level preparedness, such as having an emergency kit, and high-level preparedness, such as altering home structures to mitigate damage. Studies of Wellington (New Zealand) residents using two samples totalling n=652 showed that 23 items measuring these different aspects of earthquake preparation could be combined into a reliable, valid, unifactorial scale. This brief scale should have utility in multivariate studies of earthquake preparation, either as a dependent variable, where preparation is the outcome variable of primary interest, or as one of several independent variables, where preparation and other measures predict another outcome variable.     

Relating groundwater to seasonal wetlands in southeastern Wisconsin, USA

Historically, drier types of wetlands have been difficult to characterize and are not well researched. Nonetheless, they are considered to reflect the precipitation history with little, if any, regard for possible relation to groundwater. Two seasonal coastal wetland types (wet prairie, sedge meadow) were investigated during three growing seasons at three sites in the Lake Michigan Basin, Wisconsin, USA. The six seasonal wetlands were characterized using standard soil and vegetation techniques and groundwater measurements from the shallow and deep systems. They all met wetland hydrology criteria (e.g., water within 30 cm of land surface for 5% of the growing season) during the early portion of the growing season despite the lack of appreciable regional groundwater discharge into the wetland root zones. Although root-zone duration analyses did not fit a lognormal distribution previously noted in groundwater-dominated wetlands, they were able to discriminate between the plant communities and showed that wet prairie communities had shorter durations of continuous soil saturation than sedge meadow communities. These results demonstrate that the relative rates of groundwater outflows can be important for wetland hydrology and resulting wetland type. Thus, regional stresses to the shallow groundwater system such as pumping or low Great Lake levels can be expected to affect even drier wetland types.     

SKA studies of atomic gas in the interstellar medium of the Milky Way

The λ21-cm line is an excellent tracer of the neutral interstellar medium (ISM). Atomic hydrogen (HI) is found in a variety of environments, from dense clouds to the diffuse galactic halo, and its filling factor is often high, so structures with sizes over a wide range of scales can be mapped with this line. Galactic HI surveys show small scale structure that is consistent with a spectrum of interstellar turbulence similar to what is measured in the ionized component of the ISM. But our sampling of the spectrum of this turbulence is limited to a few size ranges, based on the sensitivities of existing telescopes for emission and absorption studies. The Square Kilometer Array (SKA) will provide the sensitivity and resolution to give continuous coverage of the turbulence spectrum from hundreds of parsecs to a few tens of Astronomical Units. By showing us the full spectrum of interstellar turbulence in the neutral medium, the physical processes driving hydrodynamic and magneto-hydrodynamic instabilities will be illuminated. Ultimately the turbulence governs the passage of the gas from the warm phases of the medium to the cold phases where gravitational collapse can initiate star formation. The SKA is needed to fill in this missing link in the cycle of star formation and chemical enrichment that drives the evolution of galaxies. In the Milky Way halo, SKA mapping of HI high velocity clouds will trace the structure and motion of both the warm phase gas and the hot medium. The interaction between these two phases of halo gas is a great unsolved problem in Galactic astrophysics.     

Cross-shelf exchange in a model of the Ross Sea circulation and biogeochemistry

Transport of warm, nutrient-rich Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto Antarctic continental shelves and coastal seas has important effects on physical and biological processes. The present study investigates the locations of this transport and its dynamics in the Ross Sea with a high-resolution three-dimensional numerical model. The model circulation is forced by daily wind stress along with heat and salt fluxes calculated from atmospheric climatologies by bulk formulae. All surface fluxes are modified by an imposed climatological ice cover. Waters under the Ross Ice Shelf are not included explicitly, but their effect on temperature and salinity is imposed in a buffer zone at the southern end of the model domain. A simple nutrient uptake is calculated based on the climatological chlorophyll distribution and Monod uptake kinetics.Model circulation is strongly affected by bottom topography, due to weak stratification, and agrees with schematics of the general flow and long-term current measurements except near the southern boundary. The sea-surface temperature is similar to satellite estimates except that the warmest simulated temperatures are slightly higher than observations. There is a significant correlation between the curvature of the shelf break and the transport across the shelf break. A momentum term balance shows that momentum advection helps to force flow across the shelf break in specific locations due to the curvature of the bathymetry (that is, the isobaths curve in front of the flow). For the model to create a strong intrusion of CDW onto the shelf, it appears two mechanisms are necessary. First, CDW is driven onto the shelf at least partially due to momentum advection and the curvature of the shelf break; then, the general circulation on the shelf takes the CDW into the interior.     

The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Coastal Vegetation of the Weeks Bay Reserve,Alabama from NDVI Data

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data were used to investigate vegetation changes after Hurricane Katrina (2005) for the Weeks Bay Reserve and surrounding area of coastal AL. Landsat 5 satellite images were acquired before landfall (March 24, 2005), after landfall (September 16, 2005), and 8 months after landfall (April 28, 2006). The March 2005 to September 2005 image comparison showed that average NDVI values decreased by 49% after landfall. Continuing into the next year, average NDVI values were −44% lower in April 2006 than they were in March 2005. Among habitat types, the estuarine emergent wetland experienced the largest average NDVI value decrease (−64%). The estuarine emergent wetland NDVI values continued to decrease by −27% from September 2005 to April 2006, whereas other habitats increased in NDVI. This continued suppression of NDVI values was attributed to increased salinity from the storm surge and to regional drought conditions that occurred after landfall. These results provide insight into the sensitivity of coastal vegetation from the interactions of both tropical cyclones and long-term environmental conditions.     

Exploration drilling and reservoir model of the Platanares geothermal system, Honduras, Central America

Results of drilling, logging, and testing of three exploration core holes, combined with results of geologic and hydrogeochemical investigations, have been used to present a reservoir model of the Platanares geothermal system, Honduras. Geothermal fluids circulate at depths ≥ 1.5 km in a region of active tectonism devoid of Quaternary volcanism. Large, artesian water entries of 160 to 165°C geothermal fluid in two core holes at 625 to 644 m and 460 to 635 m depth have maximum flow rates of roughly 355 and 560 l/min, respectively, which are equivalent to power outputs of about 3.1 and 5.1 MW(thermal). Dilute, alkali-chloride reservoir fluids (TDS ≤ 1200 mg/kg) are produced from fractured Miocene andesite and Cretaceous to Eocene redbeds that are hydrothermally altered. Fracture permeabillity in producing horizons is locally greater than 1500 and bulk porosity is ≤ 6%. A simple, fracture-dominated, volume-impedance model assuming turbulent flow indicates that the calculated reservoir storage capacity of each flowing hole is approximately 9.7 × 10⁶ l/(kg cm⁻²), Tritium data indicate a mean residence time of 450 yr for water in the reservoir. Multiplying the natural fluid discharge rate by the mean residence time gives an estimated water volume of the Platanares system of ≥ 0.78 km³. Downward continuation of a 139°C/km “conductive” gradient at a depth of 400 m in a third core hole implies that the depth to a 225°C source reservoir (predicted from chemical geothermometers) is at least 1.5 km. Uranium-thorium disequilibrium ages on calcite veins at the surface and in the core holes indicate that the present Platanares hydrothermal system has been active for the last 0.25 m.y.     

Compositional trends among IID irons; their possible formation from the P-rich lower magma in a two-layer core

Group IID is the fifth largest group of iron meteorites and the fourth largest magmatic group (i.e., that formed by fractional crystallization). We report neutron-activation data for 19 (of 21 known) IID irons. These confirm earlier studies showing that the group has a relatively limited range in Ir concentrations, a factor of 5. This limited range is not mainly due to incomplete sampling; Instead, it seems to indicate low solid/liquid distribution coefficients reflecting very low S contents of the parental magma, the same explanation responsible for the limited range in group IVA. Despite this similarity, these two groups have very different volatile patterns. Group IVA has very low abundances of the volatile elements Ga, Sb and Ge whereas in group IID Ga and Sb abundances are the highest known in a magmatic group of iron meteorites and Ge abundances are the second highest (after group IIAB). Group IID appears to be the only large magmatic group having high volatile abundances but low S. In the volatile-depleted groups IVA and IVB it is plausible that S was lost as a volatile from a chondritic precursor material. Because group IID seems to have experienced minimal loss of volatiles, we suggest that S was lost as an early melt having a composition near that of the Fe–FeS eutectic (315 mg/g S). When temperatures had risen 400–500 K higher P-rich melts formed, became gravitationally unstable, and drained through the first melt to form an inner core that was parental to the IID irons. As discussed by [Kracher, A., Wasson, J.T., 1982. The role of S in the evolution of the parental cores of the iron meteorites. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 46, 2419–2426], it is plausible that a metal-rich inner core and a S-rich outer core could coexist metastably because stratification near the interface permitted only diffusional mixing. The initial liquidus temperature of the inner, P-rich core is estimated to have been 1740 K; after >60% crystallization the increase in P and the decrease in temperature may have permitted immiscibility with the S-rich outer core. We have not recognized samples of the outer core.     

Transport of Crustacean Larvae Between a Low-Inflow Estuary and Coastal Waters

The effectiveness of larval behavior in regulating transport between well-mixed, low-inflow estuaries and coastal waters in seasonally arid climates is poorly known. We determined the flux of an assemblage of benthic crustacean larvae relative to physical conditions between a shallow estuary and coastal waters on the upwelling coast of northern California (38°18′N, 123°03′W) from 29 to 31 March 2006. We detected larval behaviors that regulate transport in adjacent coastal waters and other estuaries for only two taxa in the low-inflow estuary, but they were apparent for taxa outside the estuary. Vertical mixing in the shallow estuary may have overwhelmed larvae of some species, or salinity fluctuations may have been too slight to cue tidal vertical migrations. Nevertheless, all larval stages of species that complete development in nearshore coastal waters were present in the estuary, because they remained low in the water column reducing seaward advection or they were readily exchanged between the estuary and open coast by tidal flows. Weak tidal flows and gravitational circulation at the head of the estuary reduced seaward transport during development for species that completed development nearshore, whereas larval release during nocturnal ebb tides enhanced seaward transport for species that develop offshore. Thus, nonselective tidal processes dominated larval transport for most species back and forth between the low-inflow estuary and open coastal waters, whereas in adjacent open coastal waters, larval behavior in the presence of wind-induced shear was more important in regulating migrations between adult and larval habitats along this upwelling coast.