PREDICTIONS OF CRUSTAL DEFORMATION CAUSED BY CHANGING POLAR ICE ON A VISCOELASTIC EARTH

Changes in polar ice could cause vertical crustal motion of up to several mm yr-1 along the edge of the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps. Measurements of the uplift could help constrain the changing ice volumes. The problem is complicated by the Earth's visco-elastic response to past loading, including the Late Pleistocene deglaciation. A method is described for removing these visco-elastic effects, by using simultaneous measurements of vertical motion and surface gravity. A linear combination of these two measurement types can be formed which is relatively independent of visco-elastic effects, and which can be interpreted in terms of present-day fluctuations in ice.     

Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known asM8 TheM8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.     

Magnetostratigraphy and palaeoclimate of Red Clay sequences from Chinese Loess Plateau

Two Red Clay profiles near Xi’an and Xifeng were investigated in an attempt to determine magnetostratigraphic and palaeoclimatic records. The results show that aeolian dust accumulation and the related East Asia palaeomonsoon system had begun by 6.5 Ma, and it is deduced that the Tibetan Plateau had reached a significant elevation at that time. The late Tertiary palaeoclimatic history of the Red Clay as reflected by magnetic susceptibility is reconstructed during the period of 6.5–2.5 Ma. Stepwise increase in susceptibility of aeolian dust accumulation appears to have a close correlation to the uplift processes of the Tibetan Plateau. The remarkable increase of aeolian dust accumulation at 3.2 Ma appears to be due to the influence of global ice volume on the East Asia monsoon. Palaeomonsoon variation during the late Tertiary as recorded in the Red Clay sequences from the Chinese Loess Plateau can be regarded as the product of a number of interacting factors, such as uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, solar radiation, global ice volume, etc. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Foundation of Xi’an Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

Arrays of Unpumped Wells for Plume Migration Control by Semi-Passive In Situ Remediation

Arrays of unpumped wells can be used as discontinuous permeable walls in which each well serves both as a means to focus ground water flow into the well for treatment and as a container either for permeable reactive media which directly destroy dissolved ground water contaminants or for devices or materials which release amendments that support in situ degradation of contaminants within the aquifer downgradient of the wells. This paper addresses the use of wells for amendment delivery, recognizing the potential utility of amendments such as electron acceptors (e.g., oxygen nitrate), electron donors (primary substrates), and microbial nutrients for stimulating bioremediation, and the potential utility of oxidizers, reducers, etc., for controlled abiotic degradation. Depending on its rate and constraints, the remedial reaction may occur within the well and/or downgradient. For complete remediation of ground water passing through the well array, the total flux of amendment released must meet or exceed the total flux demand imposed by the plume. When there are constraints on the released concentration of amendment (relative to the demand), close spacing of the wells may be required. If the flux balance allows wider spacing, it is likely that limited downgradient spreading of the released amendment will then be the primary constraint on interwell spacing. Divergent flow from the wells, roughly two times the well diameter, provides the bulk of downgradient spreading and constrains maximum well spacing in the absence of significant lateral dispersion. Stronger lateral dispersion enhances the spreading of amendment, thereby increasing the lateral impact of each well, which allows for wider well spacing.     

Relationship of Avalonian and Cadomian terranes to Grenville and Pan-African events

Suturing of the supercontinent Rodinia in the Grenville event (˜ 1000 Ma) was followed by rifting in the late Proterozoic (˜ 800-700 Ma), reorganization to Gondwana in the Pan-African (˜ 700-500 Ma) and further accretion to develop Pangea at the end of the Paleozoic. One of the Rodinian rifts followed part of the Grenville suture, it produced the margin of eastern North America and southern Baltica and the contrasting margin of west Gondwana in present South America. The Paleozoic accretionary wedge against the Grenville-age margin of North America and Baltica contains Avalonian/Cadomian terranes that exhibit Pan-African erogenic events ± sediments apparently developed while the terranes were in or near Gondwana. These terranes carry lower-Paleozoic fauna (Acado-Baltic) that are not indigenous to North America and Baltica.U---Pb zircon ages range from 1500-1000 Ma in Grenville terranes and from 800–500 Ma with minor inheritance in Avalonian terranes; they are generally much older in Cadomian terranes, implying very little resetting during Pan-African events. T_DM ages are generally 2000–1200 Ma in Grenville terranes, 1300–600 Ma in Avalonian terranes and 2000–1200 in Cadomian terranes. These summary data show that: (1) the Grenville orogenic event produced almost no juvenile crust; (2) the Avalonian terranes of North America contain crust that evolved primarily in the late Proterozoic, possibly as a mixture of juvenile Pan-African material and Grenville or slightly older material; (3) the Cadomian terranes of Europe consist of old (middle-Proterozoic to Archean) crust with minor juvenile Pan-African material. The Avalonian terranes apparently evolved near, and partly on, the Grenville-age crust now in South America during the intense orogeny associated with rotation of Gondwana away from North America. The Cadomian terranes of Europe, however, appear to be fragments of other parts of Gondwana, probably West Africa.     

Cold anticyclonic eddies formed from cold pool water in the southern Middle Atlantic Bight

AVHRR satellite imagery of the southern Mid-Atlantic Bight during May 1993 revealed a large area of cold water over the shelf break and slope that appeared to spin up into a series of southward propagating anticyclonic eddies. The eddies had diameters of 35–45 km at the surface and moved southward at about 20 cm/sec. A radial TOYO CTD (to 50m) and ADCP velocity (to 400m) transect was conducted across the southern-most of these eddies. The upper 50 meters had minimum temperatures of less than 7°C and salinities of about 33 pss, characteristics similar to cold pool waters usually found over the continental shelf. ADCP velocity data from one of the eddies revealed anticyclonic flow extending to a depth of about 250m. The transport of cold pool water by the eddies was estimated to be 0.1 to 0.2 Sv which is of the same order as the annual mean alongshore transport of shelf water in this region. The origin of the deeper water within the eddy is unlikely to be the continental shelf because the shelf break is less than 100 m. The depth and velocity profiles along the TOYO transect were consistent with the constant potential vorticity eddy model of Flierl (1979) although the source of the eddy kinetic energy is uncertain. The cause for the exodus of cold pool water from the shelf, which extended northward to at least 38°N, is unclear but must involve the establishment of an alongshore baroclinic pressure gradient against the usual southwestward shelf flow. It is possible that the intrusion of Gulf Stream waters onto the shelf near Cape Hatteras was a precursor of this off shelf transport. The southern-most eddy was marked by high biological productivity and very high oxygen supersaturation. The phytoplankton bloom detected within the exported cold pool water, located over the continental slope, suggests a mechanism whereby production fueled by nutrients derived from the shelf can be locally exported into deep water.