On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

North American Geographers and the Pacific Rim: Leaders or Laggards

The ascendance of the Pacific Rim is an indisputable global happening. North American geography, a logical leader in the study of this high profile phenomenon, has lagged behind other disciplines in Rim-focused research. This article argues in favor of a heightened Rim awareness, surveys recent publications, suggests promising Pacific Rim research directions, and proposes how the Association of American Geographers can help promote Rim studies.     

Intermediate disturbance and patterns of species richness

Abstract

The intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) predicts highest species diversity in environments experiencing intermediate intensity disturbance, after an intermediate timespan. Because many landscapes comprise mosaics with complex disturbance histories, the theory implies that each patch in those mosaics should have a distinct level of diversity reflecting the magnitude of disturbance and the time since it occurred. We model changing patterns of species richness across a landscape experiencing varied scenarios of simulated disturbance in order to predict first the variation of richness through time in individual patches, based on their disturbance histories, and then the changing patterns of richness across the landscape through time, representing the cumulative impact of changing richness within the individual patches. Model outputs show that individual landscape patches have highly variable species richness through time, with the trajectory reflecting the timing, intensity and sequence of disturbances. When the results are mapped across the landscape, the resulting temporal and spatial complexity reveals a distribution of biodiversity that is strikingly contingent on the details of disturbance history. These results illustrate the danger of generalization (in either data interpretation or management decisions), as IDH actually imposes a highly variable pattern of diversity.     

Maternal transfer of bioactive polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons in spawning chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha)

The biological potency (relative to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin. TCDD) of planar polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons (PCHs) in extracts of eggs and flesh from spawning female chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) from Lake Michigan was determined by measuring the induction of 7-ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase activity in H-4-II-E rat hepatoma cells. TCDD-equivalents in flesh and egg samples ranged from 0 to 115·8 pg/g, and were approximately 5-fold greater in eggs than in flesh. These results suggest that the maternal transfer of PCHs may play a role in determining the reproductive success of Lake Michigan chinook salmon.     

Monitoring agricultural cropping patterns across the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin using MODIS-NDVI data

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 16-day composite data product (MOD12Q) was used to develop annual cropland and crop-specific map products (corn, soybeans, and wheat) for the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB). The crop area distributions and changes in crop rotations were characterized by comparing annual crop map products for 2005, 2006, and 2007. The total acreages for corn and soybeans were relatively balanced for calendar years 2005 (31,462 km² and 31,283 km², respectively) and 2006 (30,766 km² and 30,972 km², respectively). Conversely, corn acreage increased approximately 21% from 2006 to 2007, while soybean and wheat acreage decreased approximately 9% and 21%, respectively. Two-year crop rotational change analyses were conducted for the 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 time periods. The large increase in corn acreages for 2007 introduced crop rotation changes across the GLB. Compared to 2005–2006, crop rotation patterns for 2006–2007 resulted in increased corn–corn, soybean–corn, and wheat–corn rotations. The increased corn acreages could have potential negative impacts on nutrient loadings, pesticide exposures, and sediment-mediated habitat degradation. Increased in US corn acreages in 2007 were related to new biofuel mandates, while Canadian increases were attributed to higher world-wide corn prices. Additional study is needed to determine the potential impacts of increases in corn-based ethanol agricultural production on watershed ecosystems and receiving waters.     

Cosmogenic-nuclide ages for New England coastal moraines, Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA

Cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages for 13 glacially transported boulders atop the Martha's Vineyard moraine, MA, USA, indicate that the southeastern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet reached its maximum extent during the last glaciation 23,200±500 yr ago. Another 10 age determinations from the younger Buzzards Bay moraine near Woods Hole, MA, indicate that this moraine complex was formed 18,800±400 yr ago. These ages correlate approximately with the terminations of cooling cycles recorded in Greenland ice cores and coeval ice-rafting events, suggesting that the marginal position of this sector of the ice sheet was tightly coupled to North Atlantic climate during the last glacial maximum.