Evaluation of the first GOCE static gravity field models using terrestrial gravity,vertical deflections and EGM2008 quasigeoid heights

Recently, four global geopotential models (GGMs) were computed and released based on the first 2 months of data collected by the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) dedicated satellite gravity field mission. Given that GOCE is a technologically complex mission and different processing strategies were applied to real space-collected GOCE data for the first time, evaluation of the new models is an important aspect. As a first assessment strategy, we use terrestrial gravity data over Switzerland and Australia and astrogeodetic vertical deflections over Europe and Australia as ground-truth data sets for GOCE model evaluation. We apply a spectral enhancement method (SEM) to the truncated GOCE GGMs to make their spectral content more comparable with the terrestrial data. The SEM utilises the high-degree bands of EGM2008 and residual terrain model data as a data source to widely bridge the spectral gap between the satellite and terrestrial data. Analysis of root mean square (RMS) errors is carried out as a function of (i) the GOCE GGM expansion degree and (ii) the four different GOCE GGMs. The RMS curves are also compared against those from EGM2008 and GRACE-based GGMs. As a second assessment strategy, we compare global grids of GOCE GGM and EGM2008 quasigeoid heights. In connection with EGM2008 error estimates, this allows location of regions where GOCE is likely to deliver improved knowledge on the Earth’s gravity field. Our ground truth data sets, together with the EGM2008 quasigeoid comparisons, signal clear improvements in the spectral band ~160–165 to ~180–185 in terms of spherical harmonic degrees for the GOCE-based GGMs, fairly independently of the individual GOCE model used. The results from both assessments together provide strong evidence that the first 2 months of GOCE observations improve the knowledge of the Earth’s static gravity field at spatial scales between ~125 and ~110 km, particularly over parts of Asia, Africa, South America and Antarctica, in comparison with the pre-GOCE-era.     

An overview of socio-economic and ecological perspectives of Fiji's inshore reef fisheries

This paper reviews the socio-economic and ecological context of Fijian reef fisheries. This review is deemed necessary because improved understanding of the state and trends of Fiji's coral reef fisheries on a national level is required for designing an effective management plan for Fiji's inshore reef fisheries. The most important point that emerges from our review is that despite numerous studies of Fiji's reef fisheries, the current status of reef-associated fisheries at the national level is still uncertain due, mainly, to the lack of dependable data on the subsistence fisheries. This in turn leads to uncertainty about how the continuation of fishing, in particular, fishing focused on target species for the coral reef resources trade, will affect fishing communities and the ecosystem.     

ANABRANCHING RIVERS: THEIR CAUSE,CHARACTER AND CLASSIFICATION

Anabranching rivers consist of multiple channels separated by vegetated semi-permanent alluvial islands excised from existing floodplain or formed by within-channel or deltaic accretion. These rivers occupy a wide range of environments from low to high energy, however, their existence has never been adequately explained. They occur concurrently with other types of channel pattern, although specific requirements include a flood-dominated flow regime and banks that are resistant to erosion, with some systems characterized by mechanisms to block or constrict channels, thereby triggering avulsion. The fundamental advantage of an anabranching river is that, by constructing a semi-permanent system of multiple channels, it can concentrate stream flow and maximize bed-sediment transport (work per unit area of the bed) under conditions where there is little or no opportunity to increase gradient. On the basis of stream energy, sediment size and morphological characteristics, six types of anabranching river are recognized; types 1–3 are lower energy and types 4–6 are higher energy systems. Type 1 are cohesive sediment rivers (commonly termed anastomosing) with low w/d ratio channels that exhibit little or no lateral migration. They are divisible into three subtypes based on vegetative and sedimentary environment. Type 2 are sand-dominated, island-forming rivers, and type 3 are mixed-load laterally active meandering rivers. Type 4 are sand-dominated, ridge-forming rivers characterized by long, parallel, channel-dividing ridges. Type 5 are gravel-dominated, laterally active systems that interface between meandering and braiding in mountainous regions. Type 6 are gravel-dominated, stable systems that occur as non-migrating channels in small, relatively steep basins. Anabranching rivers represent a relatively uncommon but widespread and distinctive group that, because of particular sedimentary, energy-gradient and other hydraulic conditions, operate most effectively as a system of multiple channels separated by vegetated floodplain islands or alluvial ridges.     

Determination of the REE in Geological Reference Materials DTS-1 (Dunite) and PCC-1 (Peridotite) by Ultrasonic and Microconcentric Desolvating Nebulisation ICP-MS

Inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry is well suited for the precise, accurate and rapid determination of rare earth elements in most geological samples. However, determination of rare earth elements in certain mantle-derived materials, without applying preconcentration techniques, remains problematical due to low natural concentrations (generally < 1 ng g⁻¹). Consequently, USGS reference materials DTS-1 (a dunite) and PCC-1 (a partially serpentinized harzburgite) have only suggested rather than recommended values for the rare earth elements in reference material compilations. We compared results obtained using two ICP-MS instruments: a U-5000AT ultrasonic nebuliser coupled to a PQ2+ quadrupole ICP-MS and an ELEMENT sector field ICP-MS equipped with a MCN-6000 microconcentric desolvating nebuliser, with the suggested literature values for these two reference materials. Precision and accuracy of analytical methods employed by both instruments were demonstrated by excellent relative standard deviations (< 2%) and inter-laboratory agreement (< 5%) for numerous analyses of BHVO-1 and BIR-1, which are well established with rare earth elements contents at the μg g⁻¹ level. Repeat analyses of DTS-1 and PCC-1 at each laboratory indicate that each method is generally precise to better than 5% at sub-g g⁻¹ levels. Furthermore, values from both instruments generally agree to within 10%. Our DTS-1 and PCC-1 values agree reasonably well with selected data reported in the literature (except for Ce and Sm in DTS-1) but exhibit poorer agreement with reported compilation values. With the demonstrated level of precision and accuracy, we contend that these new values for DTS-1 and PCC-1, generated by two different instruments, are the best estimates of the true whole-rock composition of these samples reported to date.     

BUILDING A COLONIAL RESOURCE MONOPOLY: THE EXPANSION OF SULPHUR MINING IN NEW SPAIN, 1600–1820*

The discovery, extraction, and monopolistic control of key natural resources was a priority of New Spain's colonial administration. Managing the region's abundant resources, however, often proved difficult for the Spanish Crown. Human and environmental challenges impeded protoindustrial growth and development, and monopolistic control of resources often met resistance. In this article I examine these processes in the context of New Spain's little‐known monopoly on sulphur—a yellow, powdery mineral the Crown jealously guarded as its own. Sulphur was critical for gunpowder and explosives production, yet the Crown often failed to produce enough of it to meet the growing demand by its military and the silver blast‐mining industry. Colonial documents reveal administrators’ attempts to improve sulphur production through reform measures, which included advising sulphur miners on how to discover sulphur deposits and, eventually, how to develop their mines. Efforts to improve sulphur production were moderately successful, although the process was messy and inefficient.     

The OSIRIS‐REx target asteroid (101955) Bennu: Constraints on its physical,geological, and dynamical nature from astronomical observations

We review the results of an extensive campaign to determine the physical, geological, and dynamical properties of asteroid (101955) Bennu. This investigation provides information on the orbit, shape, mass, rotation state, radar response, photometric, spectroscopic, thermal, regolith, and environmental properties of Bennu. We combine these data with cosmochemical and dynamical models to develop a hypothetical timeline for Bennu's formation and evolution. We infer that Bennu is an ancient object that has witnessed over 4.5 Gyr of solar system history. Its chemistry and mineralogy were established within the first 10 Myr of the solar system. It likely originated as a discrete asteroid in the inner Main Belt approximately 0.7–2 Gyr ago as a fragment from the catastrophic disruption of a large (approximately 100‐km), carbonaceous asteroid. It was delivered to near‐Earth space via a combination of Yarkovsky‐induced drift and interaction with giant‐planet resonances. During its journey, YORP processes and planetary close encounters modified Bennu's spin state, potentially reshaping and resurfacing the asteroid. We also review work on Bennu's future dynamical evolution and constrain its ultimate fate. It is one of the most Potentially Hazardous Asteroids with an approximately 1‐in‐2700 chance of impacting the Earth in the late 22nd century. It will most likely end its dynamical life by falling into the Sun. The highest probability for a planetary impact is with Venus, followed by the Earth. There is a chance that Bennu will be ejected from the inner solar system after a close encounter with Jupiter. OSIRIS‐REx will return samples from the surface of this intriguing asteroid in September 2023.     

Rock fall hazard control along a section of railway based on quantified risk

Rock falls represent a large percentage of landslide-related hazards reported by Canadian railways in mountainous terrain. A 54.7?km-long section of railway through the Canadian Cordillera is examined that experiences, on average, 18 rock falls each year. An approach for rock fall hazard management is developed based on quantified risk. The approach focuses on defining railway operation procedures (freight train operations and track maintenance) that comply with quantified risks. Weather-based criteria that define periods when rock falls are more likely to occur along the study area are examined. These criteria are used herein to reduce exposure to rock falls and reduce their consequences. Several freight train operation strategies are proposed that comply with a tolerable level of risk adopted in this study for illustrative purposes. The approach provides a simple, flexible and practical strategy for railway operations that can be regularly adopted by the operators, and that is based on a more comprehensive assessment of quantified risk.     

Effect of snow cover on pan-Arctic permafrost thermal regimes

This study quantitatively evaluated how insulation by snow depth (SND) affected the soil thermal regime and permafrost degradation in the pan-Arctic area, and more generally defined the characteristics of soil temperature (T_SOIL) and SND from 1901 to 2009. This was achieved through experiments performed with the land surface model CHANGE to assess sensitivity to winter precipitation as well as air temperature. Simulated T_SOIL, active layer thickness (ALT), SND, and snow density were generally comparable with in situ or satellite observations at large scales and over long periods. Northernmost regions had snow that remained relatively stable and in a thicker state during the past four decades, generating greater increases in T_SOIL. Changes in snow cover have led to changes in the thermal state of the underlying soil, which is strongly dependent on both the magnitude and the timing of changes in snowfall. Simulations of the period 2001–2009 revealed significant differences in the extent of near-surface permafrost, reflecting differences in the model’s treatment of meteorology and the soil bottom boundary. Permafrost loss was greater when SND increased in autumn rather than in winter, due to insulation of the soil resulting from early cooling. Simulations revealed that T_SOIL tended to increase over most of the pan-Arctic from 1901 to 2009, and that this increase was significant in northern regions, especially in northeastern Siberia where SND is responsible for 50 % or more of the changes in T_SOIL at a depth of 3.6 m. In the same region, ALT also increased at a rate of approximately 2.3 cm per decade. The most sensitive response of ALT to changes in SND appeared in the southern boundary regions of permafrost, in contrast to permafrost temperatures within the 60°N–80°N region, which were more sensitive to changes in snow cover. Finally, our model suggests that snow cover contributes to the warming of permafrost in northern regions and could play a more important role under conditions of future Arctic warming.     

Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993–2010 and model reanalysis over 1981–2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981–2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.     

A statistical analysis for pattern recognition of small cloud particles sampled with a PMS-2DC probe

Although small particles (size between 25 m and 200 m) are frequently observed within ice and water clouds, they are not generally used properly for the calculation of structural, optical and microphysical quantities. Actually neither the exact shape nor the phase (ice or water) of these particles is well denned since the existing pattern recognition algorithms are only efficient for larger particle sizes. The present study describes a statistical analysis concerning small hexagonal columns and spherical particles sampled with a PMS-2DC probe, and the corresponding images are classified according to the occurrence probability of various pixels arrangements. This approach was first applied to synthetic data generated with a numerical model, including the effects of diffraction at a short distance, and then validated against actual data sets obtained from in-cloud flights during the pre-ICE89 campaign. Our method allows us to differentiate small hexagonal columns from spherical particles, thus making possible the characterization of the three dimensional shape (and consequently evaluation of the volume) of the particles, and finally to compute e.g., the liquid or the ice water content.