Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Historical Changes in the Flood Hazard at Khartoum, Sudan: Lessons and Warnings for the Future

The 1988 floods at Khartoum were frequently described as "unprecedented". However, an examination of evidence for floods caused by the Nile and rain storms during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries leads to the conclusion that neither the Nile flood nor the rain storms nor their coincidence in one season were unprecedented and that similar situations will recur.We argue that most problems were created by complacency, lack of planning and mismanagement. We conclude with some simple suggestions for flood amelioration in the future and warn that complacency is the single most important phenomenon likely to recur to the detriment of Greater Khartoum in the future.     

Recurrent Red-tides in the Southampton Water Estuary Caused by the Phototrophic CiliateMesodinium rubrum

In the Southampton Water estuary (southern England, U.K.), red-tides caused by the planktonic, phototrophic ciliateMesodinium rubrum(=Myrionecta rubra) occur during most summers and sometimes in autumn. These events were investigated in detail between 1985 and 1987 and were characterized by levels of chlorophylla(chl a) of over 100 μg l⁻¹, cell numbers ofM. rubrumof over 1×10³ ml⁻¹, oxygen saturations of around 150%, and depleted numbers of macrozooplankton. Initiation of red-water did not appear to be triggered by irradiance or nutrients, but coincided with an increase in temperature and water column stability. This enhanced stability was promoted by increased surface to bottom gradients of both temperature and salinity, and by reduced mixing during neap tides. Development of red-water was accompanied by removal of most of the dissolved NH⁺₄from the water column, whereas some NO⁻₃persisted, presumably maintained by freshwater input. NO⁻₃and NH⁺₄gradually returned to pre-bloom concentrations as the red-water declined in late summer. Maximal biomass ofM. rubrumappeared to be limited by irradiance, and self-shading probably imposed an upper limit of around 300 mg chl a m⁻²within the water column. At the observed levels of chl a, irradiance values within the population maximum between 1 and 3 m depth were only just of the order (≈15 μmol photons m⁻² s⁻¹) required to balance estimated respiratory demands. Oxygen concentration became undersaturated during the late bloom phase, with minimal values of 20–30% saturation recorded in deeper waters; however, despite this and reduced numbers of macrozooplankton, direct deleterious effects on other organisms were not observed.     

Transient phenomena in the energetic behind-the-limb solar flare of september 29, 1989

The powerful cosmic ray flare of Sept. 29, 1989 occurred behind the limb and was observed over a wide spectral range. The analysis of optical, radio, and other relevant data suggest two phases of energy release. After an impulsive phase a prolonged post eruption energy release occurred in an extended region of the corona following the eruption of a large coronal mass ejection (CME). This phase is responsible for numerous coronal and interplanetary phenomena including the ground-level increase of cosmic rays.     

Planetary Nebulae

This review summarizes spectroscopic and imaging results obtained on board the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) on well-known planetary nebulae: the young nebula NGC 7027, and two fully evolved nearby nebulae, the Dumbbell and the Helix. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The mass of the white dwarf in the recurrent nova U Scorpii

We present spectroscopy of the eclipsing recurrent nova U Sco. The radial velocity semi-amplitude of the primary star was found to be     from the motion of the wings of the He  ii λ 4686-Å emission line. By detecting weak absorption features from the secondary star, we find its radial velocity semi-amplitude to be     . From these parameters, we obtain a mass of     for the white dwarf primary star and a mass of     for the secondary star. The radius of the secondary is calculated to be     , confirming that it is evolved. The inclination of the system is calculated to be     , consistent with the deep eclipse seen in the light-curves. The helium emission lines are double-peaked, with the blueshifted regions of the disc being eclipsed prior to the redshifted regions, clearly indicating the presence of an accretion disc. The high mass of the white dwarf is consistent with the thermonuclear runaway model of recurrent nova outbursts, and confirms that U Sco is the best Type Ia supernova progenitor currently known. We predict that U Sco is likely to explode within ∼700 000 yr.     

The first World Atlas of the artificial night sky brightness

We present the first World Atlas of the zenith artificial night sky brightness at sea level. Based on radiance-calibrated high-resolution DMSP satellite data and on accurate modelling of light propagation in the atmosphere, it provides a nearly global picture of how mankind is proceeding to envelop itself in a luminous fog. Comparing the Atlas with the United States Department of Energy (DOE) population density data base, we determined the fraction of population who are living under a sky of given brightness. About two-thirds of the World population and 99 per cent of the population in the United States (excluding Alaska and Hawaii) and European Union live in areas where the night sky is above the threshold set for polluted status. Assuming average eye functionality, about one-fifth of the World population, more than two-thirds of the United States population and more than one half of the European Union population have already lost naked eye visibility of the Milky Way. Finally, about one-tenth of the World population, more than 40 per cent of the United States population and one sixth of the European Union population no longer view the heavens with the eye adapted to night vision, because of the sky brightness.     

Low‐energy helium ion irradiation‐induced amorphization and chemical changes in olivine: Insights for silicate dust evolution in the interstellar medium

Abstract— We present the results of irradiation experiments aimed at understanding the structural and chemical evolution of silicate grains in the interstellar medium. A series of He+ irradiation experiments have been performed on ultra‐thin olivine, (Mg,Fe)₂SiO₄, samples having a high surface/volume (S/V) ratio, comparable to the expected S/V ratio of interstellar dust. The energies and fluences of the helium ions used in this study have been chosen to simulate the irradiation of interstellar dust grains in supernovae shock waves. The samples were mainly studied using analytical transmission electron microscopy. Our results show that olivine is amorphized by low‐energy ion irradiation. Changes in composition are also observed. In particular, irradiation leads to a decrease of the atomic ratios O/Si and Mg/Si as determined by x‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy and by x‐ray energy dispersive spectroscopy. This chemical evolution is due to the differential sputtering of atoms near the surfaces. We also observe a reduction process resulting in the formation of metallic iron. The use of very thin samples emphasizes the role of surface/volume ratio and thus the importance of the particle size in the irradiation‐induced effects. These results allow us to account qualitatively for the observed properties of interstellar grains in different environments, that is, at different stages of their evolution: chemical and structural evolution in the interstellar medium, from olivine to pyroxene‐type and from crystalline to amorphous silicates, porosity of cometary grains as well as the formation of metallic inclusions in silicates.