Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

Variable stars,photoelectric photometry,science education,and the A.A.V.S.O.

The role of amateurs and small-scale equipment in astronomical photometry is reviewed. The value of suitably selected projects for both research and educational purposes is stressed. Recent technical developments are noted, and a brief extrapolation to possible future arrangements included.Keynote address at the conference     

Properties of star formation in the spiral arms of barred galaxies

It is assumed that the two-fold disc-wide symmetry of spirals is caused by density waves, but also the potential of a bar component may have a significant influence on structural properties. The strength of the bar component appears to be anti-correlated with the degree of symmetry of star-forming regions in the spiral arms (Rozas et al., 1998). We present new results of R and Hα surface photometry of a sample of bright barred spirals. A photometric decompositon of the galaxy components is carried out in order to make a more accurate measurement of the strength of the bar and its interrelation to gas and stars in the disc. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Proton Irradiation of Centaur,Kuiper Belt,and Oort Cloud Objects at Plasma to Cosmic Ray Energy

Times for accumulation of chemically significant dosages on icy surfaces of Centaur, Kuiper Belt, and Oort Cloud objects from plasma and energetic ions depend on irradiation position within or outside the heliosphere. Principal irradiation components include solar wind plasma ions, pickup ions from solar UV ionization of interstellar neutral gas, energetic ions accelerated by solar and interplanetary shocks, including the putative solar wind termination shock, and galactic cosmic ray ions from the Local Interstellar Medium (LISM). We present model flux spectra derived from spacecraft data and models for eV to GeV protons at 40 AU, a termination shock position at 85 AU, and in the LISM. Times in years to accumulate dosages ～100 eV per molecule are computed from the spectra as functions of sensible surface depth less than one centimeter at unit density.The collisional resurfacing model of Luu and Jewitt is reconsidered in thecontext of depth-dependent dosage rates from plasma, suprathermal,and higher energy protons, and global exposure, by micrometeoroiddust grain impacts, of moderately irradiated red material below athin crust of heavily irradiated neutral material. This material should be more visible on dynamically `cold’ objects in the ～40 AU region.     

Controls on the chemistry of runoff from an upland peat catchment

This study uses 2 years of data from a detailed weekly water sampling programme in a 11·4 km² upland peat catchment in the Northern Pennines, UK. The sampling comprised precipitation, soil‐water samples and a number of streams, including the basin outlet. Samples were analysed for: pH, conductivity, alkalinity, Na, K, Ca, Mg, Fe, Al, Total N, SO₄, Cl and colour. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify end‐members and compositional trends in order to identify controls on the development of water composition. The study showed that the direct use of PCA had several advantages over the use of end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) as it combines an analysis of mixing and evolving waters without the assumption of having to know the compositional sources of the water. In its application to an upland peat catchment, the study supports the view that shallow throughflow at the catotelm/acrotelm boundary is responsible for storm runoff generation and shows that baseflow is controlled by cation exchange in the catotelm and mixing with a base‐rich groundwater. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Kaidun meteorite: Clasts of alkaline‐rich fractionated materials

Abstract— Clasts of alkaline (the second find in meteorites) and subalkaline rocks were found in the Kaidun meteorite. One of them (#d4A) is a large crystal of albite with inclusions of fluorapatite, arfvedsonite, aenigmatite, and wilkinsonite. The two latter minerals were previously unknown in meteorites. Another clast (#d[3–5]D) has a melt crystallization texture of mainly feldspar (oligoclase) composition and contains relict grains of both high‐Ca and low‐Ca pyroxene and fluorapatite. The mineralogical characteristics of these clasts suggest a genetic relationship and an origin from the same parent body. The textural and mineralogical characteristics of the clasts indicate origin by extensive igneous differentiation. Such processes most likely took place in a rather large differentiated body. The material of clast #d(3–5)D is similar in some mineralogical respects to basaltic shergottites.     

Cepheid Limb Darkening Models for the VLTI

We present a new method to compute wavelength- and phase-dependent limb darkening corrections for classical Cepheids. These corrections are derived from hydrodynamic simulations and radiative transfer modeling with a full set of atomic and molecular opacities. Comparison with hydrostatic models having the same stellar parameters show a larger limb darkening for most phases in our models, and temporal variations related to the hydrodynamics of the stellar pulsation. Weassess the implications of our results with respect to the geometric Baade-Wesselink method, which uses interferometric measurements of Cepheid angular diameters to determine their distances and radii. The relevance of the hydrodynamic effects predicted by our model on the limb darkening of pulsating Cepheids is finally discussed in terms of the predicted capabilities of the VLTI. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Isobaric cooling and anti-clockwise P–T paths in the Variscan Odenwald Crystalline Complex, Germany

Mineral assemblages in Al₂O₃‐rich, SiO₂‐ and K₂O‐poor metapelitic rocks from the western Odenwald Crystalline Complex (Variscan Mid‐German Crystalline Rise, southern Germany) include corundum, spinel, cordierite, sillimanite, garnet and staurolite. Quartz is absent from almost all samples. Therefore, the applicability of conventional geothermobarometry is very limited or even impossible. Detailed petrographic investigation on selected samples permits inference of the sequence of appearance and disappearance of several mineral assemblages. The recognition of such partial re‐equilibration stages and their associated mineral assemblages, together with mineral stabilities predicted from KFMASH pseudosections, enables the determination of the pressure‐temperature (P–T) trajectories experienced by these rocks during the Variscan metamorphism. The rocks were metamorphosed under low‐P/high‐T conditions and underwent an anti‐clockwise P–T evolution. A pressure increase from about 2 kbar to 4 ± 0.5 kbar was accompanied by heating. Peak metamorphic conditions were reached at pressures of 4 ± 0.5 kbar and temperatures of at least 640 °C, probably even higher. The retrograde evolution is characterised by near‐isobaric cooling from ≥ 640 °C to approximately 550 °C. The rocks underwent the anti‐clockwise evolution in a subduction‐related magmatic arc setting. The close spatial association of the low‐P/high‐T rocks with recently discovered metabasic eclogites in the eastern part of the Odenwald Crystalline Complex may indicate a fossil paired metamorphic belt in the Central European Variscides.