Economics- and physical-based metrics for comparing greenhouse gases

A range of alternatives to the Global Warming Potential (GWP) have been suggested in the scientific literature. One of the alternative metrics that has received attention is the cost-effective relative valuation of greenhouse gases, recently denoted Global Cost Potential (GCP). However, this metric is based on complex optimising integrated assessment models that are far from transparent to the general scientist or policymaker. Here we present a new analytic metric, the Cost-Effective Temperature Potential (CETP) which is based on an approximation of the GCP. This new metric is constructed in order to enhance general understanding of the GCP and elucidate the links between physical metrics and metrics that take economics into account. We show that this metric has got similarities with the purely physical metric, Global Temperature change Potential (GTP). However, in contrast with the GTP, the CETP takes the long-term temperature response into account.     

Early MIS 3 glacial lake evolution, ice-marginal retreat pattern and climate at Sokli (northeastern Fennoscandia)

Lake development at Sokli, northern Finland, is traced through the analysis of diatoms and other siliceous micro-fossils in a 2-meter thick minerogenic, laminated clay-silt deposit dated to the early part of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3. Fluctuating water levels and changes in lake extent depicted by the siliceous micro-fossil record, together with lithology, suggest that an important part of the sediment sequence was deposited in a glacial lake. The proxy-based glacial lake evolution is tested using a Digital Elevation Model and geomorphologic evidence including eskers dated to the early MIS 3 Tulppio Interstadial at Sokli. Despite the apparent ice-dammed nature of the lake, the sediment is relatively rich in fossils and there are limited signs of re-deposition of older fossil material. The siliceous micro-fossil record together with data from other proxies previously analysed in the same sediment samples provides a coherent picture of past environmental changes around the Sokli site. This is most probably due to the sheltered position of the coring-site in a lake embayment. Quantitative climate reconstructions based on the diatom record show mean July air temperatures as high as present-day values at Sokli, and the temperature ranges indicated by the diatom record are in agreement with temperature reconstructions based on chironomids. The position of Sokli in the northeastern portion of the central area of the Scandinavian glaciations and the northern retreat pattern implies that an important part of eastern Fennoscandia was deglaciated during the early MIS 3 warming event.     

Mesozoic rift magmatism in the North Sea region: <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar geochronology of Scanian basalts and geochemical constraints

More than 100 volcanic necks composed of basanites and melanephelinites occur in Scania, southern Sweden, at the junction of two major tectonic lineaments, the Phanerozoic Sorgenfrei-Tornquist Zone (STZ) and the Proterozoic Protogine Zone. New ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar isotope analyses of whole rock fragments of nine selected basalt necks suggest that the Mesozoic alkaline volcanism in the Scanian province commenced earlier than previously reported and comprised three separate volcanic episodes that span a total period of ca. 80 Myr: a first Jurassic (191–178 Ma), a second at the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary (ca. 145 Ma), and a final middle Cretaceous episode (ca. 110 Ma). The new results allow for precise time correlations between eruption events in the Scanian and those in the North Sea volcanic provinces. The older, early Jurassic event in Scania is largely synchronous with that in the Egersund Basin and the Forties field whereas the event at ca. 145 Ma is correlated with activity in the Central Graben. These volcanic episodes also correlate in age with Kimmerian tectonic activity. Volcanic activity in the middle Cretaceous period has also been dated in the triple junction in the North Sea and offshore in the Netherland Sector. The correlation of basalt volcanism in Scania with the Egersund nephelinites strongly suggest that volcanism was triggered by repeated tectonic activity along the STZ. Geochemical data of alkaline mafic rocks in the Scanian and the North Sea volcanic provinces imply that different provinces have largely unique geochemical signatures in favour of a heterogeneous mantle in the North Sea volcanic region. However, basalts of different generations in one and the same province cannot be readily separated on the basis of geochemistry, suggesting that the same lithospheric mantle was the source of repeated volcanism over time in each province. The data suggest a low degree of melting of a volatile-bearing mantle lherzolite enriched in incompatible elements with the exception of the Forties basalts in the rift centre, produced by larger degree of melting and evolved by fractional crystallization.     

The 1995–2002 Long-Term Monitoring of Comet C/1995 O1 (HALE–BOPP) at Radio Wavelength

The bright comet Hale–Bopp provided the first opportunity to follow the outgassing rates of a number of molecular species over a large range of heliocentric distances. We present the results of our observing campaign at radio wavelengths which began in August 1995 and ended in January 2002. The observations were carried out with the telescopes of Nançay, IRAM, JCMT, CSO and, since September 1997, SEST. The lines of nine molecules (OH, CO, HCN, CH₃OH, H₂CO, H₂S, CS, CH₃CN and HNC) were monitored. CS, H₂S, H₂CO, CH₃CN were detected up to r_h= 3–4 AU from the Sun, while HCN and CH₃OH were detected up to 6 AU. CO, which is the main driver of cometary activity at heliocentric distances larger than 3–4 AU, was last detected in August 2001, at r_h= 14 AU. The gas production rates obtained from this programme contain important information on the nature of cometary ices, their thermal properties and sublimation mechanisms.Line shapes allow to measure gas expansion velocities, which, at large heliocentric distances, might be directly connected to the temperature of the nucleus surface. Inferred expansion velocity of the gas varied as r_h ^-0.4 within 7 AU from the Sun, but remained close to 0.4 km s^-1 further away. The CO spectra obtained at large r_hare strongly blueshifted and indicative of an important day-to-night asymmetry in outgassing and expansion velocity. The kinetic temperature of the coma, estimated from the relative intensities of the CH₃OH and CO lines, increased with decreasing r_h, from about 10 K at 7 AU to 110 K around perihelion.     

A numerical comparison of theories of violent relaxation

Using N -body simulations with a large set of massless test particles, we compare the predictions of two theories of violent relaxation, the well-known Lynden-Bell theory and the more recent theory by Nakamura. We derive 'weakened' versions of both the theories in which we use the whole equilibrium coarse-grained distribution function     as a constraint instead of the total energy constraint. We use these weakened theories to construct expressions for the conditional probability   K_i (τ)  that a test particle initially at the phase-space coordinate τ would end-up in the i th macro-cell at equilibrium. We show that the logarithm of the ratio   R_ij (τ) ≡ K_i (τ)/ K_j (τ)  is directly proportional to the initial phase-space density   f ₀(τ)  for the Lynden-Bell theory and inversely proportional to   f ₀(τ)  for the Nakamura theory. We then measure   R_ij (τ)  using a set of N -body simulations of a system undergoing a gravitational collapse to check the validity of the two theories of violent relaxation. We find that both the theories are at odds with the numerical results, both qualitatively and quantitatively.     

Determination of molecular gas properties using methyl cyanide lines

A survey has been made of 27 Galactic star-forming regions in the (CH₃CN) 6_K–5_K, 5_K–4_K, and 8_K–7_K lines of methyl cyanide (CH₃CN) at 110, 92, and 147 GHz. Twenty-five sources were detected at 110 GHz, nineteen at 92 GHz, and three at 147 GHz. The strongest CH₃CN emission arises in hot cores in regions of massive star formation. The abundance of CH₃CN in these objects exceeds 10^?9 as a consequence of grain mantle evaporation. Weaker CH₃CN lines were found in a number of sources. These can arise in either warm (30–50 K), dense (>10⁴ cm^?3) clouds or in hot regions with cooler gas.     

Accurate laboratory wavelengths of some ultraviolet lines of Cr, Zn and Ni relevant to time variations of the fine structure constant

The quality of astronomical spectroscopic data now available is so high that interpretation and analysis are often limited by the uncertainties of the laboratory data base. In particular, the limit with which space–time variations in the fine structure constant α can be constrained using quasar spectra depends on the availability of more accurate laboratory rest wavelengths. We recently measured some transitions in magnesium by high-resolution Fourier transform spectroscopy for this purpose, and we now report measurements on some ultraviolet resonance lines of Zn  ii (2062 and 2026 Å), Cr  ii (2066, 2062 and 2056 Å) and Ni  ii (1751, 1741, 1709 and 1703 Å). Apart from the last line, which is very weak, the uncertainty of these measurements is 0.002 cm⁻¹ (0.08 må) for the lines around 2000 Å and 0.004 cm⁻¹ (0.12 må) for the lines around 1700 Å.     

Estimation of weathering rates for critical load calculations in Finland

 The formation of base cations through mineral weathering in forest soils is one of the key parameters in calculating critical loads. Weathering rates in Finland have been estimated using a variety of methods. In the first approach, three weathering rate categories were assigned to soils according to the bedrock type. The second approach was based on an empirical relationship obtained from Swedish field studies. Changes in zirconium content through the soil profile were used to estimate element losses in soil after deglaciation. These calculated losses correlated well with the total calcium and magnesium concentrations in till C-horizons and the effective temperature sum (ETS). Comprehensive geochemical data for the parent till fine fraction (<0.06 mm) was available through the reconnaissance scale till geochemical mapping program of the Geological Survey of Finland (GSF). The equations obtained from Swedish studies were based on the use of the coarse (<2.0 mm) till fraction, and the differences in element concentrations between the fine and coarse size fractions remained a potential source of uncertainty estimating overall weathering rates. In the third approach, new geochemical data from the <2.0 mm till fraction from southern Finland were used to make new weathering rate estimates. The use of soil geochemistry instead of bedrock map classification clearly led to an improvement in the estimates of soil weathering rates in glacied terrains. The use of the fine till fraction (<0.06 mm) in the zirconium approach generally resulted in overestimations of the weathering rate. The new geochemical data for the coarse till fraction (<2 mm) are now consistent with the input requirements of the zirconium method, although the results still require further evaluation. Finnish soil profiles have a shorter weathering history than most of the Swedish ones and the uppermost layer in Finnish podsols has in some cases developed in a different till layer than the C-horizon. Received: 15 October 1995 · Accepted: 8 March 1996