New major element analyses of proximal tephras from the Azores and suggested correlations with cryptotephras in North-West Europe

The Azores Archipelago is one of the most active volcanic areas in the North Atlantic region. Approximately 30 eruptions have been reported over the last 600 years with some major VEI 5 (Volcanic Explosivity Index) eruptions further back in time. The geochemical composition of associated tephra-derived glass, however, is not well characterized. An Azorean origin of cryptotephras found in distal areas such as North Africa, the British Isles and Greenland has been suggested, but proximal data from the Azores are scarce and the correlations have only been tentative. These tephras have a traychtic composition, which excludes an Icelandic origin. In a previous study, we presented major element analyses of proximal tephra-derived glass from five Holocene eruptions on the Azores Islands. There is a striking geochemical similarity between tephras from volcanoes on São Miguel and Irish cryptotephras, and especially with eruptives from the Furnas volcano. Here we present new analyses of proximal tephras that confirm and strengthen a link between Furnas and cryptotephras found in south-west Ireland. We also suggest a correlation between a previously unsourced tephra found in a Swedish bog with an eruption of the Sete Cidades volcano c. 3880 a cal BP.     

Tomographic reconstruction of gas plumes using scanning DOAS

This paper presents a method to reconstruct the gas distribution inside a vertical cross section of a gas plume by combining data from two or more scanning DOAS instruments using a tomographic algorithm. The method can be applied to gas plumes from any single, elevated point source, such as a volcano or industrial chimney. Such two-dimensional concentration distributions may prove to be useful for example in plume chemistry, dispersion and environmental impact studies. Here we show the case with one scanning DOAS instrument located on each side of the plume, which is the easiest and most economic setup as well as the most useful in routine monitoring of e.g. volcanic gas emissions. The paper investigates the conditions under which tomographic reconstructions can be performed and discusses limitations of this setup. The proposed method has been studied theoretically by numerical simulations and has been experimentally tested during two field campaigns, with measurements of SO₂ emissions from a volcano and a power plant. The simulations show that, under good measurement conditions, the algorithm presented performs well, which is further confirmed by the experimental results.     

Emission of nitric oxide from soils and termite nests in a Trachypogon savanna of the Orinoco basin

Nitric oxide fluxes from soils in the Trachypogon savanna of the Orinoco basin were determined during the dry season using the static chamber method. The emission from dry soils fluctuated from 0.4 to 3 ng N m^–2 s^–1 and increased up to 25 ng N m^–2 s^–1 after moderate watering or light rain-falls (1 to 5 mm). The mean emission values are up to 6 times lower than one observed earlier at the Chaguaramas site, but up to 10 times higher than one recorded at the Guri site, indicating an important spatial variability in NO fluxes of the Venezuelan savanna region. The changes observed after the addition of nitrogen to the soil, in the form of ammonium and/or nitrate, indicate a high denitrification potential in this acidic soil. Burning of the surface vegetation produced an increase by a factor of 10 in the emission rate of NO, but the effect was relatively short in time, about 5 days. It was estimated for the savanna region that burning increases the total NO soil emission during the dry season by 15% compared to the unburnt case. Soils with termite nests emit 10 times more NO than soil without nests, but the contribution from this source is less than 2% of the total savanna soil flux.     

Fault induced permanent ground deformations: Experimental verification of wet and dry soil, numerical findings’ relation to field observations of tunnel damage and implications for design

Few building codes contains provisions fault surface ruptures and accompanying soil deformations which constitutes a great risk to human lives, buildings and infrastructure. A numerical and experimental comparison show a fair agreement of result. Analysis of “real” scale show the how water increases the incompressibility of wet soil causing shear deformations to become larger and conjugate ruptures to appear for reverse faults. Field observations and numerical analysis indicates that horizontal compression of soil surrounding underground structures should be taken into account in design.     

Using resistivity measurements for dam safety evaluation at Enemossen tailings dam in southern Sweden

Internal erosion is a major reason for embankment dam failures. Resistivity measurements is an essentially non-destructive technique, which may have the possibility of detecting internal erosion processes and anomalous seepage at an early stage before the safety of the dam is at stake. This paper presents results from part of a dam safety investigation conducted at the Enemossen tailings dam in southern Sweden. Longitudinal resistivity sections, 2D measurements along the dam crest, provided an overview of the whole dam and served to detect anomalous zones. In selected areas, additional cross-sectional 2D surveys gave detailed information about the geo-electrical situations in the embankments. This information is valuable for similar investigations as information about resistivity in embankment construction material is scarce. Known problem areas were associated with low resistivities, even though the resistivity measurements alone did not provide enough information to confidently come to a decision about the status of the dams.

Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks

The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems’ growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid ‘oil boom’-development—i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events—their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.     

Analysis of digital elevation data for palaeosurfaces in south-western Sweden

A 3873-km² large rectangular area of the Precambrian basement in south-western Sweden has been investigated regarding gross morphology of palaeosurfaces. GIS and digital elevation data were used to construct maps of relative and absolute relief and E–W trending height profiles. Three different palaeosurfaces were recognised and delimited; the very even sub-Cambrian peneplain in the east at an intermediate altitudinal position, an uplifted and broken part of the sub-Cambrian peneplain in the centre at the highest present elevation, and in the western coastal areas a joint-aligned valley landscape with high relative relief, probably an exhumed Mesozoic etch-surface. Phanerozoic faulting has dissected the different palaeosurfaces into tectonic blocks, which are shown from trend surface analysis to be tilted in different directions and to different degrees, characteristic and decisive for the morphological development.     

The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets

For agriculture, there are three major options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: 1) productivity improvements, particularly in the livestock sector; 2) dedicated technical mitigation measures; and 3) human dietary changes. The aim of the paper is to estimate long-term agricultural GHG emissions, under different mitigation scenarios, and to relate them to the emissions space compatible with the 2 °C temperature target. Our estimates include emissions up to 2070 from agricultural soils, manure management, enteric fermentation and paddy rice fields, and are based on IPCC Tier 2 methodology. We find that baseline agricultural CO₂-equivalent emissions (using Global Warming Potentials with a 100 year time horizon) will be approximately 13 Gton CO₂eq/year in 2070, compared to 7.1 Gton CO₂eq/year 2000. However, if faster growth in livestock productivity is combined with dedicated technical mitigation measures, emissions may be kept to 7.7 Gton CO₂eq/year in 2070. If structural changes in human diets are included, emissions may be reduced further, to 3–5 Gton CO₂eq/year in 2070. The total annual emissions for meeting the 2 °C target with a chance above 50 % is in the order of 13 Gton CO₂eq/year or less in 2070, for all sectors combined. We conclude that reduced ruminant meat and dairy consumption will be indispensable for reaching the 2 °C target with a high probability, unless unprecedented advances in technology take place.     

Valuing the non-CO2 climate impacts of aviation

The non-CO₂ climate impact of aviation (NO_x and contrails) is assessed and emissions weighting factors (EWFs) i.e., the factor by which aviation CO₂ emissions should be multiplied to get the CO₂-equivalent emissions for annual fleet average conditions are estimated. The EWFs are estimated using two economic metrics. One is based on the relative damage cost between non-CO₂ forcers and CO₂. The other is based on the cost-effective valuation between the non-CO₂ forcers and CO₂ given an upper ceiling on the global annual average surface temperature (set at 2?K above pre-industrial levels). We also estimate EWFs using three physical metrics, Global Warming Potential (GWP), Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) and Sustained GTP (SGTP) and compare our results with the economics based metrics. Given best estimates on the forcing contributions from CO₂, contrails and NO_x from aviation and by using a discount rate of 3%/year, the RDC based metric gives an EWF equal to 1.4 (slightly higher than EWFs based on GWP and SGTP using a 100?year time horizon). EWF using the cost-effective approach depends on the time that remains before stabilization occurs. It is roughly equal to unity until a few years before the temperature reaches its ceiling, and approximately 2 when stabilization has taken place. EWFs based on GTP resemble those based on CETO when the time left to when stabilization occurs is sufficiently large. Once stabilization has occurred CETO values resemble RDC based values. If aviation-induced cirrus clouds are included, uncertainties increase and the EWFs for GWP, SGTP and RDC based metrics end up in the range 1.3–2.9, while EWFs for GTP and CETO remain close to unity in the near term.     

An examination of in situ rock stress estimation using the Kaiser effect

When rock cores are loaded in uniaxial compression, acoustic emission occurs when the stress reaches a level greater than that which the rock has previously experienced. This phenomenon, known as the Kaiser Effect, has been used as an indirect method of estimating the in situ stress field in rock masses. If the procedure is valid, then the Kaiser Effect method has the advantage that the stress field can be estimated through laboratory tests on rock cores, rather than the field drillhole methods of overcoring and hydraulic fracturing. However, the Kaiser Effect method is an enigma: on the one hand, there are good reasons why the method cannot be valid; on the other hand, there are reports in the literature of it being successfully applied. In this paper, we explore the variety of geological and mechanical factors involved and report on a case example for the Olkiluoto crystalline rock site in western Finland. We conclude that the Kaiser Effect method for stress measurement is only likely to be successful if it is supported by key geological and other stress measurement information and if certain procedures are followed as explained in the paper.