Refined discrete and empirical horizontal gradients in VLBI analysis

Missing or incorrect consideration of azimuthal asymmetry of troposphere delays is a considerable error source in space geodetic techniques such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) or Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). So-called horizontal troposphere gradients are generally utilized for modeling such azimuthal variations and are particularly required for observations at low elevation angles. Apart from estimating the gradients within the data analysis, which has become common practice in space geodetic techniques, there is also the possibility to determine the gradients beforehand from different data sources than the actual observations. Using ray-tracing through Numerical Weather Models (NWMs), we determined discrete gradient values referred to as GRAD for VLBI observations, based on the standard gradient model by Chen and Herring (J Geophys Res 102(B9):20489–20502, 1997.  https://doi.org/10.1029/97JB01739) and also for new, higher-order gradient models. These gradients are produced on the same data basis as the Vienna Mapping Functions 3 (VMF3) (Landskron and Böhm in J Geod, 2017.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-017-1066-2), so they can also be regarded as the VMF3 gradients as they are fully consistent with each other. From VLBI analyses of the Vienna VLBI and Satellite Software (VieVS), it becomes evident that baseline length repeatabilities (BLRs) are improved on average by 5% when using a priori gradients GRAD instead of estimating the gradients. The reason for this improvement is that the gradient estimation yields poor results for VLBI sessions with a small number of observations, while the GRAD a priori gradients are unaffected from this. We also developed a new empirical gradient model applicable for any time and location on Earth, which is included in the Global Pressure and Temperature 3 (GPT3) model. Although being able to describe only the systematic component of azimuthal asymmetry and no short-term variations at all, even these empirical a priori gradients slightly reduce (improve) the BLRs with respect to the estimation of gradients. In general, this paper addresses that a priori horizontal gradients are actually more important for VLBI analysis than previously assumed, as particularly the discrete model GRAD as well as the empirical model GPT3 are indeed able to refine and improve the results.     

Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine

Abstract

The runoff regime of glacierized headwater catchments in the Alps is essentially characterized by snow and ice melt. High Alpine drainage basins influence distant downstream catchments of the Rhine River basin. In particular, during the summer months, low-flow conditions are probable with strongly reduced snow and ice melt under climate change conditions. This study attempts to quantify present and future contributions from snow and ice melt to summer runoff at different spatial scales. For the small Silvretta catchment (103 km²) in the Swiss Alps, with a glacierization of 7%, the HBV model and the glacio-hydrological model GERM are applied for calculating future runoff based on different regional climate scenarios. We evaluate the importance of snow and ice melt in the runoff regime. Comparison of the models indicates that the HBV model strongly overestimates the future contribution of glacier melt to runoff, as glaciers are considered as static components. Furthermore, we provide estimates of the current meltwater contribution of glaciers for several catchments downstream on the River Rhine during the month of August. Snow and ice melt processes have a significant direct impact on summer runoff, not only for high mountain catchments, but also for large transboundary basins. A future shift in the hydrological regime and the disappearance of glaciers might favour low-flow conditions during summer along the Rhine.

Citation Junghans, N., Cullmann, J. & Huss, M. (2011) Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 981–993.     

Correcting surface winds by assimilating high-frequency radar surface currents in the German Bight

Surface winds are crucial for accurately modeling the surface circulation in the coastal ocean. In the present work, high-frequency radar surface currents are assimilated using an ensemble scheme which aims to obtain improved surface winds taking into account European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts winds as a first guess and surface current measurements. The objective of this study is to show that wind forcing can be improved using an approach similar to parameter estimation in ensemble data assimilation. Like variational assimilation schemes, the method provides an improved wind field based on surface current measurements. However, the technique does not require an adjoint, and it is thus easier to implement. In addition, it does not rely on a linearization of the model dynamics. The method is validated directly by comparing the analyzed wind speed to independent in situ measurements and indirectly by assessing the impact of the corrected winds on model sea surface temperature (SST) relative to satellite SST.     

The high-pressure stability of chlorite and other hydrates in subduction mélanges: experiments in the system Cr<Subscript>2</Subscript>O<Subscript>3</Subscript>–MgO–Al<Subscript>2</Subscript>O<Subscript>3</Subscript>–SiO<Subscript>2</Subscript>–H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O

The solubility of chromium in chlorite as a function of pressure, temperature, and bulk composition was investigated in the system Cr₂O₃–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O, and its effect on phase relations evaluated. Three different compositions with X _Cr = Cr/(Cr + Al) = 0.075, 0.25, and 0.5 respectively, were investigated at 1.5–6.5 GPa, 650–900 °C. Cr-chlorite only occurs in the bulk composition with X _Cr = 0.075; otherwise, spinel and garnet are the major aluminous phases. In the experiments, Cr-chlorite coexists with enstatite up to 3.5 GPa, 800–850 °C, and with forsterite, pyrope, and spinel at higher pressure. At P > 5 GPa other hydrates occur: a Cr-bearing phase-HAPY (Mg_2.2Al_1.5Cr_0.1Si_1.1O₆(OH)₂) is stable in assemblage with pyrope, forsterite, and spinel; Mg-sursassite coexists at 6.0 GPa, 650 °C with forsterite and spinel and a new Cr-bearing phase, named 11.5 Å phase (Mg:Al:Si = 6.3:1.2:2.4) after the first diffraction peak observed in high-resolution X-ray diffraction pattern. Cr affects the stability of chlorite by shifting its breakdown reactions toward higher temperature, but Cr solubility at high pressure is reduced compared with the solubility observed in low-pressure occurrences in hydrothermal environments. Chromium partitions generally according to \(X_{\text{Cr}}^{\text{spinel}}\) ? \(X_{\text{Cr}}^{\text{opx}}\) > \(X_{\text{Cr}}^{\text{chlorite}}\) ≥ \(X_{\text{Cr}}^{\text{HAPY}}\) > \(X_{\text{Cr}}^{\text{garnet}}\). At 5 GPa, 750 °C (bulk with X _Cr = 0.075) equilibrium values are \(X_{\text{Cr}}^{\text{spinel}}\) = 0.27, \(X_{\text{Cr}}^{\text{chlorite}}\) = 0.08, \(X_{\text{Cr}}^{\text{garnet}}\) = 0.05; at 5.4 GPa, 720 °C \(X_{\text{Cr}}^{\text{spinel}}\) = 0.33, \(X_{\text{Cr}}^{\text{HAPY}}\) = 0.06, and \(X_{\text{Cr}}^{\text{garnet}}\) = 0.04; and at 3.5 GPa, 850 °C \(X_{\text{Cr}}^{\text{opx}}\) = 0.12 and \(X_{\text{Cr}}^{\text{chlorite}}\) = 0.07. Results on Cr–Al partitioning between spinel and garnet suggest that at low temperature the spinel- to garnet-peridotite transition has a negative slope of 0.5 GPa/100 °C. The formation of phase-HAPY, in assemblage with garnet and spinel, at pressures above chlorite breakdown, provides a viable mechanism to promote H₂O transport in metasomatized ultramafic mélanges of subduction channels.     

Hydraulic fracturing in unconventional gas reservoirs: risks in the geological system, part 2

Hydraulic fracturing is a method used for the production of unconventional gas resources. Huge amounts of so-called fracturing fluid (10,000–20,000 m³) are injected into a gas reservoir to create fractures in solid rock formations, upon which mobilised methane fills the pore space and the fracturing fluid is withdrawn. Hydraulic fracturing may pose a threat to groundwater resources if fracturing fluid or brine can migrate through fault zones into shallow aquifers. Diffuse methane emissions from the gas reservoir may not only contaminate shallow groundwater aquifers, but also escape into the atmosphere where methane acts as a greenhouse gas. The working group “Risks in the Geological System” as part of ExxonMobil’s hydrofracking dialogue and information dissemination processes was tasked with the assessment of possible hazards posed by migrating fluids as a result of hydraulic fracturing activities. In this work, several flow paths for fracturing fluid, brine and methane are identified and scenarios are set up to qualitatively estimate under what circumstances these fluids would leak into shallower layers. The parametrisation for potential hydraulic fracturing sites in North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony (both in Germany) is derived from literature using upper and lower bounds of hydraulic parameters. The results show that a significant fluid migration is only possible if a combination of several conservative assumptions is met by a scenario.     

The 2010 European Venus Explorer (EVE) mission proposal

The European Venus Explorer (EVE) mission described in this paper was proposed in December 2010 to ESA as an ‘M-class’ mission under the Cosmic Vision programme. It consists of a single balloon platform floating in the middle of the main convective cloud layer of Venus at an altitude of 55?km, where temperatures and pressures are benign (～25°C and ～0.5 bar). The balloon float lifetime would be at least 10 Earth days, long enough to guarantee at least one full circumnavigation of the planet. This offers an ideal platform for the two main science goals of the mission: study of the current climate through detailed characterization of cloud-level atmosphere, and investigation of the formation and evolution of Venus, through careful measurement of noble gas isotopic abundances. These investigations would provide key data for comparative planetology of terrestrial planets in our solar system and beyond.     

Troposphere delays from space geodetic techniques, water vapor radiometers, and numerical weather models over a series of continuous VLBI campaigns

Continuous, very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) campaigns over 2 weeks have been carried out repeatedly, i.e., CONT02 in October 2002, CONT05 in September 2005, CONT08 in August 2008, and CONT11 in September 2011, to demonstrate the highest accuracy the current VLBI was capable at that time. In this study, we have compared zenith total delays (ZTD) and troposphere gradients as consistently estimated from the observations of VLBI, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) at VLBI sites participating in the CONT campaigns. We analyzed the CONT campaigns using the state-of-the-art software following common processing strategies as closely as possible. In parallel, ZTD and gradients were derived from numerical weather models, i.e., from the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis fields, the High Resolution Limited Area Model (European sites), the Japan Meteorological Agency-Operational Meso-Analysis Field (MANAL, over Japan), and the Cloud Resolving Storm Simulator (Tsukuba, Japan). Finally, zenith wet delays were estimated from the observations of water vapor radiometers (WVR) at sites where the WVR observables are available during the CONT sessions. The best ZTD agreement, interpreted as the smallest standard deviation, was found between GNSS and VLBI techniques to be about 5–6 mm at most of the co-located sites and CONT campaigns. We did not detect any significant improvement in the ZTD agreement between various techniques over time, except for DORIS and MANAL. On the other hand, the agreement and thus the accuracy of the troposphere parameters mainly depend on the amount of humidity in the atmosphere.     

Improving age estimates for late Holocene glacial landforms using dendrochronology – Some examples from Garibaldi Provincial Park,British Columbia

Dating of late Holocene landforms below treeline in high mountains is commonly done using dendrochronology. Four factors can reduce the accuracy of ages obtained by dendrochronology: (1) locating the oldest living tree on a surface; (2) the method of counting the rings; (3) the age-height correction factor; and (4) ecesis, which is the time it takes trees to successfully germinate on a bare surface. A review of published studies from the western Cordillera of the Americas shows that some of these issues have not been fully addressed. Research in Garibaldi Provincial Park in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia shows that the accuracy of tree-ring ages can be improved if (1) crossdating and chronology construction, rather than simple ring counts, are done; (2) individual age-height correction factors are applied; and (3) site-specific ecesis estimates are made. While these suggestions are not always necessary to their fullest extent, researchers should at least report their methods in more detail and provide uncertainties in their age estimates that take into account age-height and ecesis corrections.