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111.
Dating of late Holocene landforms below treeline in high mountains is commonly done using dendrochronology. Four factors can reduce the accuracy of ages obtained by dendrochronology: (1) locating the oldest living tree on a surface; (2) the method of counting the rings; (3) the age-height correction factor; and (4) ecesis, which is the time it takes trees to successfully germinate on a bare surface. A review of published studies from the western Cordillera of the Americas shows that some of these issues have not been fully addressed. Research in Garibaldi Provincial Park in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia shows that the accuracy of tree-ring ages can be improved if (1) crossdating and chronology construction, rather than simple ring counts, are done; (2) individual age-height correction factors are applied; and (3) site-specific ecesis estimates are made. While these suggestions are not always necessary to their fullest extent, researchers should at least report their methods in more detail and provide uncertainties in their age estimates that take into account age-height and ecesis corrections.  相似文献   
112.
    
The outcome from the December 2012 climate negotiations in Doha has clarified the rules regarding surplus units for the Kyoto Protocol. We summarize these new rules and estimate the resulting effective emissions during the second commitment period using our unit trade model. Other options to deal with surplus emission allowances are employed as benchmarks to assess the Doha outcome. The effective emissions for developed countries as a group under the Doha outcome could be 10–11 % below 1990 levels or 4–5 % points below business-as-usual levels for the second commitment period if we assume that non-Kyoto Protocol countries domestically achieve their targets. However, if mechanisms exist where non-Kyoto Protocol countries can trade units, their emissions could increase and effective emissions for developed countries could be 7–8 % below 1990 levels. In this low-ambition situation we find the main impact of the Doha surplus rules to be the introduction of the historical cap on emissions allowances. Without the effect of the cap, the Doha outcome allows the Parties to the second commitment period to emit at business-as-usual levels until 2020, while still leaving surplus units at the end of the second commitment period.  相似文献   
113.
Society’s needs for a network of in situ ocean observing systems cross many areas of earth and marine science. Here we review the science themes that benefit from data supplied from ocean observatories. Understanding from existing studies is fragmented to the extent that it lacks the coherent long-term monitoring needed to address questions at the scales essential to understand climate change and improve geo-hazard early warning. Data sets from the deep sea are particularly rare with long-term data available from only a few locations worldwide. These science areas have impacts on societal health and well-being and our awareness of ocean function in a shifting climate.Substantial efforts are underway to realise a network of open-ocean observatories around European Seas that will operate over multiple decades. Some systems are already collecting high-resolution data from surface, water column, seafloor, and sub-seafloor sensors linked to shore by satellite or cable connection in real or near-real time, along with samples and other data collected in a delayed mode. We expect that such observatories will contribute to answering major ocean science questions including: How can monitoring of factors such as seismic activity, pore fluid chemistry and pressure, and gas hydrate stability improve seismic, slope failure, and tsunami warning? What aspects of physical oceanography, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems will be most sensitive to climatic and anthropogenic change? What are natural versus anthropogenic changes? Most fundamentally, how are marine processes that occur at differing scales related?The development of ocean observatories provides a substantial opportunity for ocean science to evolve in Europe. Here we also describe some basic attributes of network design. Observatory networks provide the means to coordinate and integrate the collection of standardised data capable of bridging measurement scales across a dispersed area in European Seas adding needed certainty to estimates of future oceanic conditions. Observatory data can be analysed along with other data such as those from satellites, drifting floats, autonomous underwater vehicles, model analysis, and the known distribution and abundances of marine fauna in order to address some of the questions posed above. Standardised methods for information management are also becoming established to ensure better accessibility and traceability of these data sets and ultimately to increase their use for societal benefit. The connection of ocean observatory effort into larger frameworks including the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the Global Monitoring of Environment and Security (GMES) is integral to its success. It is in a greater integrated framework that the full potential of the component systems will be realised.  相似文献   
114.
Nitrogen isotope values (δ15N) of surface sediments in the German Bight of the North Sea exhibit a significant gradient from values of 5–6‰ of the open shelf sea to values above 11‰ in the German Bight. This signal has been attributed to high reactive N (Nr) loading enriched in 15N from rivers and the atmosphere. To better understand the processes that determine the intensity and spatial distribution of δ15N anomalies in surface sediments, and to explore their usefulness for reconstructions of pristine N-input from rivers, we modeled the cycling of the stable isotopes 14N and 15N in reactive nitrogen through the ecosystem of the central and southern North Sea (50.9–57.3°N, 3.4°W−9.2°E) for the year 1995. The 3D-ecosystem model ECOHAM amended with an isotope-tracking module was validated by δ15N data of surface sediments within the model domain. A typical marine value (δ15Nnitrate=5‰) was prescribed for nitrate advected into the model domain at the seaside boundaries, whereas δ15Nnitrate of river inputs were those measured bi-monthly over 1 year; δ15N values of atmospheric deposition were set to 6‰ and 7‰ for NOx and NHy, respectively. The simulated δ15N values of different nitrogen compounds in the German Bight strongly depend on the mass transfers in the ecosystem. These fluxes, summarized in a nitrogen budget for 1995, give an estimate of the impacts of hydrodynamical and hydrological boundary conditions, and internal biogeochemical transformations on the nitrogen budget of the bight.  相似文献   
115.
    
Simulations of subtropical marine low clouds and their radiative properties by nine coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models participating in the fourth assesment report (AR4) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) are analyzed. Satellite observations of cloudiness and radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) are utilized for comparison. The analysis is confined to the marine subtropics in an attempt to isolate low cloudiness from tropical convective systems. All analyzed models have a negative bias in the low cloud fraction (model mean bias of −15%). On the other hand, the models show an excess of cloud radiative cooling in the region (model mean excess of 13 W m−2). The latter bias is shown to mainly originate from too much shortwave reflection by the models clouds rather than biases in the clear-sky fluxes. These results confirm earlier studies, thus no major progress in simulating the marine subtropical clouds is noted. As a consequence of the combination of these two biases, this study suggests that all investigated models are likely to overestimate the radiative response to changes in low level subtropical cloudiness.  相似文献   
116.
117.
    
Food-insecure households in many countries depend on international aid to alleviate acute shocks and chronic shortages. Some food security programmes (including Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program–PSNP – which provides a case study for this article) have integrated aid in exchange for labour on public works to reduce long-term dependence by investing in the productive capacity and resilience of communities. Using this approach, Ethiopia has embarked upon an ambitious national programme of land restoration and sustainable land management. Although the intent was to reduce poverty, here we show that an unintended co-benefit is the climate-change mitigation from reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increased landscape carbon stocks. The article first shows that the total reduction in net GHG emissions from PSNP’s land management at the national scale is estimated at 3.4 million?Mg?CO2e?y?1 – approximately 1.5% of the emissions reductions in Ethiopia’s Nationally Determined Contribution for the Paris Agreement. The article then explores some of the opportunities and constraints to scaling up of this impact.

Key policy insights
  • Food security programmes (FSPs) can contribute to climate change mitigation by creating a vehicle for investment in land and ecosystem restoration.

  • Maximizing mitigation, while enhancing but not compromising food security, requires that climate projections, and mitigation and adaptation responses should be mainstreamed into planning and implementation of FSPs at all levels.

  • Cross-cutting oversight is required to integrate land restoration, climate policy, food security and disaster risk management into a coherent policy framework.

  • Institutional barriers to optimal implementation should be addressed, such as incentive mechanisms that reward effort rather than results, and lack of centralized monitoring and evaluation of impacts on the physical environment.

  • Project implementation can often be improved by adopting best management practices, such as using productive living livestock barriers where possible, and increasing the integration of agroforestry and non-timber forest products into landscape regeneration.

  相似文献   
118.
For planets with strong intrinsic magnetic fields such as Earth and Jupiter, an external magnetic field is unlikely to affect the internal dynamo, but for bodies with weak intrinsic fields in appropriate environments, such as Mercury and Ganymede, the interaction with nearby field sources may determine the internal dynamics and overall behavior of their liquid iron cores. On the basis of simulations of such interactions using numerical models for fluid flow and dynamo generation, the parameter regimes for stable dipolar and multipolar reversing dynamo magnetic fields established for isolated systems can be substantially changed by the action of external sources. Relatively weak external background fields (as low as 2% of the averaged undisturbed field at the core-mantle boundary) may change the energy balance and alter the regime over which natural isolated dynamos operate.  相似文献   
119.
    
The European Venus Explorer (EVE) mission described in this paper was proposed in December 2010 to ESA as an ‘M-class’ mission under the Cosmic Vision programme. It consists of a single balloon platform floating in the middle of the main convective cloud layer of Venus at an altitude of 55?km, where temperatures and pressures are benign (~25°C and ~0.5 bar). The balloon float lifetime would be at least 10 Earth days, long enough to guarantee at least one full circumnavigation of the planet. This offers an ideal platform for the two main science goals of the mission: study of the current climate through detailed characterization of cloud-level atmosphere, and investigation of the formation and evolution of Venus, through careful measurement of noble gas isotopic abundances. These investigations would provide key data for comparative planetology of terrestrial planets in our solar system and beyond.  相似文献   
120.
    
A substantial part of Mercury's iron core may be stably stratified because the temperature gradient is subadiabatic. A dynamo would operate only in a deep sublayer. We show that such a situation arises for a wide range of values for the heat flow and the sulfur content in the core. In Saturn the upper part of the metallic hydrogen core could be stably stratified because of helium depletion. The magnetic field is unusually weak in the case of Mercury and unusually axisymmetric at Saturn. We study numerical dynamo models in rotating spherical shells with a stable outer region. The control parameters are chosen such that the magnetic Reynolds number is in the range of expected Mercury values. Because of its slow rotation, Mercury may be in a regime where the dipole contribution to the internal magnetic field is weak. Most of our models are in this regime, where the dynamo field consists mainly of rapidly varying higher multipole components. They can hardly pass the stable conducting layer because of the skin effect. The weak low-degree components vary more slowly and control the structure of the field outside the core, whose strength matches the observed field strength at Mercury. In some models the axial dipole dominates at the planet's surface and in others the axial quadrupole is dominant. Differential rotation in the stable layer, representing a thermal wind, is important for attenuating non-axisymmetric components in the exterior field. In some models that we relate to Saturn the axial dipole is intrinsically strong inside the dynamo. The surface field strength is much larger than in the other cases, but the stable layer eliminates non-axisymmetric modes. The Messenger and Bepi Colombo space missions can test our predictions that Mercury's field is large-scaled, fairly axisymmetric, and shows no secular variations on the decadal time scale.  相似文献   
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