Parameter sensitivity of three Kalman filter schemes for assimilation of water levels in shelf sea models

In applications of data assimilation algorithms, a number of poorly known assimilation parameters usually need to be specified. Hence, the documented success of data assimilation methodologies must rely on a moderate sensitivity to these parameters. This contribution presents a parameter sensitivity study of three well known Kalman filter approaches for the assimilation of water levels in a three dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system. The filters considered are the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the reduced rank square root Kalman filter (RRSQRT) and the steady Kalman filter. A sensitivity analysis of key parameters in the schemes is undertaken for a setup in an idealised bay. The sensitivity of the resulting root mean square error (RMSE) is shown to be low to moderate. Hence the schemes are robust within an acceptable range and their application even with misspecified parameters is to be encouraged in this perspective. However, the predicted uncertainty of the assimilation results are sensitive to the parameters and hence must be applied with care. The sensitivity study further demonstrates the effectiveness of the steady Kalman filter in the given system as well as the great impact of assimilating even very few measurements.     

Electronic atlas of the Russian Arctic coastal zone

A set of digital maps including geology, Quaternary sediments, landscapes, engineering-geological, vegetation, geocryological and the series of regional sources have been selected to characterize the Russian Arctic coast. Based on this data, new maps of engineering geocryological zoning and zoning of the coast with respect to the intensity of exogenous geological processes and risk of technogenic impacts have been generated at the scales of 1:4,000,000–1:8,000,000. These maps are a tool to assess the impact of industry on the Arctic coast of the country.     

Seasonal dynamics in pelagic fish abundance in a Baltic Sea coastal area

The spring-spawning Baltic Sea herring spawn in coastal areas that also serve as nursery areas for the young fish during their first summer. In a bay known as a herring spawning and nursery area, the pelagic fish abundance was quantified using hydroacoustics every second week from late spring to autumn in 2000 and 2001. A dense system of survey transects allowed determination of the acoustic index (the nautical area scattering coefficient) for fish abundance with high precision. The variation, expressed as the geostatistical coefficient of variation, was on average 5% both years and ranged from 3–11% (2000) and 3–8% (2001). Through the hydroacoustic data intra-annual dynamics in acoustic fish abundance, densities and size composition could be followed, which showed similar trends in both years. In spring and early summer acoustic fish densities were low, followed by a drastic, 20-fold increase in late summer. Hydroacoustic data and biological samples suggest that the increase was caused mainly by the recruitment of young-of-the-year herring to the acoustically assessable pelagic fish community. This age class is commonly not well represented in catches when using traditional sampling gears such as gill nets and trawls, and hydroacoustics may help to improve quantitative estimates of small juvenile fish in order to increase the understanding of biological processes in coastal nursery areas.     

Vertical distribution of the macrobenthic community and its relationships to trace metals and natural sediment characteristics in the lower Douro estuary, Portugal

Vertical distribution (0–15 cm) of the macrobenthic community and its relationships to natural sediment characteristics and trace metal contents and bioavailability were studied at five locations in the lower Douro estuary, Portugal. An analysis of vertical metal distribution, for the interpretation of anthropogenic impact on the estuarine sediments, was also investigated. Sediment characterisation included organic matter, grain size, metals (Al, Fe, Cu, Pb, Cr, Ni, Cd, Zn and Mn), acid volatile sulphide (AVS) and simultaneously extracted metals (SEM). The macrobenthic community had low diversity (14 species), was dominated by small size opportunists and seemed to be controlled mainly by natural factors such as grain size distribution, Al and Fe contents and sediment depth. The vertically heterogeneous distribution of macrobenthic community appears to affect redox status of the sediments and consequently metal bioavailability. Despite anthropogenic contamination in terms of Zn, Cu, Pb, Cr and Ni having already been detected in the north bank, the analysis of vertical distribution was essential for the identification of current anthropogenic contamination in terms of Zn, Pb and Cd in the south bank.     

Assessment of the impact of the planetary scale on the decay of blocking and the use of phase diagrams and enstrophy as a diagnostic

It was shown that abrupt changes in the large-scale structure of atmospheric flows may lead to the rapid decay of blocking. Analysis of phase diagrams made it possible to identify when sharp changes occurred in the dynamics of the system. The connection of these changes to the decay of blocking was estimated for three blocking events in the Southern Hemisphere. In addition to phase diagrams, enstrophy was used as a diagnostic tool for the analysis of blocking events. From the results of this analysis, four scenarios for the decay mechanisms were determined: (i) decay with a lack of synoptic-scale support, (ii) decay with an active role for synoptic processes, and (iii–iv) either of these mechanisms in the interaction with an abrupt change in the character of the planetary-scale flow.     

Method and results of assimilation of climatic data on temperature,salinity, and sea level into a numerical model of the Black Sea

A method for combined assimilation of climatic hydrologic fields of temperature, salinity, and the climatic dynamic level of the Black Sea into a model of sea dynamics is proposed. The monthly mean fields of the dynamic sea level were obtained from the results of assimilation of satellite altimetry data into the model. The statistical characteristics of errors in the forecasts of the level, salinity, and temperature were assumed to be proportional to the statistical characteristics of the differences between monthly mean climatic fields of temperature, salinity, and sea level calculated by means of assimilating altimetry observations of the sea level and analogous climatic hydrologic fields. The climatic fields of currents are reconstructed and analyzed. The assimilation of the climatic altimetry level allows the reproduction (in current fields) of quasi-stationary synoptic anticyclonic eddies located along the periphery of the Black Sea Rim Current.     

Analysis of seabed instability using element free Galerkin method

Wave-induced seabed instability, either momentary liquefaction or shear failure, is an important topic in ocean and coastal engineering. Many factors, such as seabed properties and wave parameters, affect the seabed instability. A non-dimensional parameter is proposed in this paper to evaluate the occurrence of momentary liquefaction. This parameter includes the properties of the soil and the wave. The determination of the wave-induced liquefaction depth is also suggested based on this non-dimensional parameter. As an example, a two-dimensional seabed with finite thickness is numerically treated with the EFGM meshless method developed early for wave-induced seabed responses. Parametric study is carried out to investigate the effect of wavelength, compressibility of pore fluid, permeability and stiffness of porous media, and variable stiffness with depth on the seabed response with three criteria for liquefaction. It is found that this non-dimensional parameter is a good index for identifying the momentary liquefaction qualitatively, and the criterion of liquefaction with seepage force can be used to predict the deepest liquefaction depth.