Sources of CAM3 temperature bias during northern winter from diagnostic study of the temperature bias equation

The Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) temperature simulation bias is examined in this paper. We compare CAM3 output with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40 year reanalysis (ERA-40) data. We formulate a time mean temperature bias equation then evaluate each term in the equation. Our focus is on the Northern Hemisphere winter time. We group the temperature equation terms into these categories: linear advection terms, nonlinear advection terms, transient eddy terms and diabatic heating, and find that linear advection and diabatic bias are the largest. The nonlinear terms (velocity bias advection of temperature bias) are much smaller than each of the other groups of terms at all levels except near the surface. Linear advection terms have dipolar pattern in the Atlantic (negative NW of positive) which reflects the shift of the CAM3 model North Atlantic storm track (NAST) into Europe, especially in the upper troposphere; opposite sign dipolar structure occurs over Alaska (positive) and the north Pacific storm track (negative). The transient advection terms in middle latitudes are larger in the upper troposphere and generally positive along the Atlantic storm track. Along the north Pacific storm track (NPST), the transient terms are negative in the mid and lower troposphere over much of the NPST (positive in upper troposphere). The diabatic heating bias has large values in the tropics along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ICZ) and along the midlatitude storm tracks. During this time of year the ICZ is mainly in the Southern Hemisphere, but CAM3 emphasizes an ICZ-like heating in the northern hemisphere of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. CAM3 tends to have a weaker ICZ, especially in the Atlantic. In midlatitudes, we find large bias in heating by precipitation and vertically averaged net radiation over the NAST, Europe, and the Middle East.     

Entanglements of marine mammals and seabirds in central California and the north-west coast of the United States 2001-2005

Entanglement records for seabirds and marine mammals were investigated for the period 2001-2005. The entanglement records were extracted from databases maintained by seven organizations operating along the west coast of the United States of America. Their programmes included beach monitoring surveys, rescue and rehabilitation and regional pinniped censuses. Records of 454 entanglements were documented in live animals and in carcasses for 31 bird species and nine marine mammal species. The most frequently entangled species were Common Murres, Western Gulls and California sea lions. The entanglement materials identified were primarily fishing related. Entanglements were recorded every year suggesting that although the incidence level differs annually, entanglement is a persistent problem. It is recommended that each programme records details in standardized categories to determine entanglement material sources. Numbers of entanglements observed during these surveys are likely to be a conservative view of the actual entanglement rate taking place at sea.     

Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project

A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0–6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.     

Instantaneous dynamic pressure effects on the behaviour of lithic boulders in pyroclastic flows: the Abrigo Ignimbrite,Tenerife, Canary Islands

A method for estimating the instantaneous dynamic pressure near the base of ancient pyroclastic flows, using large lithic boulders from the late Pleistocene Abrigo Ignimbrite, is proposed here. The minimum instantaneous dynamic pressure is obtained by determining the minimum aerodynamic drag force exerted by a pyroclastic flow onto a stationary boulder that will allow the boulder to overcome static friction with the underlying substrate, and move within the flow. Consideration is given to the properties of the boulder (shape, roughness, size, density and orientation relative to the flow), substrate (type and hill slope angle), boulder-substrate interface (looseness of boulder, coefficient of static friction) and flow (coefficient of aerodynamic drag). Nineteen boulders from massive, lithic-rich ignimbrite deposits at two localities on Tenerife were assessed in this study. Minimum dynamic pressures required for Abrigo pyroclastic flows to move these boulders ranged from 5 to 38 kPa, which are comparable to dynamic pressures previously calculated from observations of the damage caused by recent pyroclastic flows. Considering the maximum possible range in flow density, the derived minimum velocity range for the Abrigo pyroclastic flows is 1.3 to 87 m s⁻¹.     

Remnant riparian vegetation,sediment and nutrient loads,and river rehabilitation in subtropical Australia

A decline in the ecosystem health of Australia's Moreton Bay, a Ramsar wetland of international significance, has been attributed to sediments and nutrients derived from catchment sources. To address this decline the regional management plan has set the target of reducing the loads by 50%. Reforestation of the channel network has been proposed as the means to achieve this reduction, but the extent of revegetation required is uncertain. Here we test the hypothesis that sediment and nutrient loads from catchments decrease proportionally with the increasing proportion of the stream length draining remnant vegetation. As part of a routine regional water quality monitoring program sediment and nutrient loads were measured in 186 flow events across 22 sub‐catchments with different proportions of remnant woodland. Using multiple linear regression analysis we develop a predictive model for pollutant loads. Of the attributes examined a combination of runoff and the proportion of the stream length draining remnant vegetation was the best predictor. The sediment yield per unit area from a catchment containing no remnant vegetation is predicted to be between 50 and 200 times that of a fully vegetated channel network; total phosphorus between 25 and 60 times; total nitrogen between 1.6 and 4.1 times. There are ~48 000 km of streams in the region of which 32% drain areas of remnant vegetation. Of these 17 095 km are above the region's water storage dams. We estimate that decreasing the sediment and phosphorus loads to Moreton Bay by 50% would involve rehabilitating ~6350 km of the channel network below the dams; halving the total nitrogen load would require almost complete restoration of the channel network. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the upper bounding approach to thermal convection at moderate rayleigh numbers

Abstract

Two upper bounding problems for thermal convection in a layer of fluid contained between perfectly conducting stress-free boundaries are treated numerically. Since the Euler equations resulting from this variational approach are simpler than the Navier-Stokes equations, they allow numerical calculations to be carried out economically to fairly large values of the Rayleigh number. The upper bounding problem formulated by Howard (1963), which yields a Nusselt number independent of Prandtl number, diverges from the correct behavior as the Rayleigh number increases. In hopes of coming closer to results of previous investigations of the Boussinesq equations of motion, a more restrictive upper bounding problem is formulated. For large Prandtl numbers the momentum equation is linearized and is used as an explicit side constraint on the variational problem, thereby forcing the solutions to more closely resemble the solutions of the Boussinesq equations. Numerical calculations at values of the Rayleigh number up to 1.5 × 10⁵ indicate that the additional constraint decreases the upper bound on the Nusselt number; it appears that this upper bound differs by only a multiplicative factor from that calculated from solutions of the full equations of motion and may be a reasonable approximation for large Rayleigh numbers.     

Influence of Hydraulic Fracturing on Overlying Aquifers in the Presence of Leaky Abandoned Wells

The association between hydrocarbon‐rich reservoirs and organic‐rich source rocks means unconventional oil and gas plays usually occur in mature sedimentary basins—where large‐scale conventional development has already taken place. Abandoned wells in proximity to hydraulic fracturing could be affected by increased fluid pressures and corresponding newly generated fractures that directly connect (frac hit) to an abandoned well or to existing fractures intersecting an abandoned well. If contaminants migrate to a pathway hydraulically connected to an abandoned well, upward leakage may occur. Potential effects of hydraulic fracturing on upward flow through a particular type of leaky abandoned well—abandoned oil and gas wells converted into water wells were investigated using numerical modeling. Several factors that affect flow to leaky wells were considered including proximity of a leaky well to hydraulic fracturing, flowback, production, and leaky well abandonment methods. The numerical model used historical records and available industry data for the Eagle Ford Shale play in south Texas. Numerical simulations indicate that upward contaminant migration could occur through leaky converted wells if certain spatial and hydraulic conditions exist. Upward flow through leaky converted wells increased with proximity to hydraulic fracturing, but decreased when flowback and production occurred. Volumetric flow rates ranged between 0 and 0.086 m³/d for hydraulic‐fracturing scenarios. Potential groundwater impacts should be paired with plausible transport mechanisms, and upward flow through leaky abandoned wells could be unrelated to hydraulic fracturing. The results also underscore the need to evaluate historical activities.     

Sea-level data for parts of the Bering-Chukchi shelves of Beringia from 19,000 to 10,000 14C yr B.P.

Sea-level changes in Beringia are especially significant because they affect the migration of land plants and animals between Asia and North America, and marine plants and animals between the Pacific and Arctic oceans. Previous studies of cores from the Bering and Chukchi shelves produced sea-level curves. Evaluation of these data suggests that nine of the radiocarbon-dated estimates of sea-level position are most reliable for the time period 19,000 to 10,000 yr B.P. The trend of these nine points is proposed as the basis for a regional sea-level curve for central Beringia. Constraints on the data must be noted, however, by anyone using them.     

Interacting effects of vegetation, soils and management on the sensitivity of Australian savanna rangelands to climate change

There is an increasing need to understand what makes vegetation at some locations more sensitive to climate change than others. For savanna rangelands, this requires building knowledge of how forage production in different land types will respond to climate change, and identifying how location-specific land type characteristics, climate and land management control the magnitude and direction of its responses to change. Here, a simulation analysis is used to explore how forage production in 14 land types of the north-eastern Australian rangelands responds to three climate change scenarios of +3°C, +17% rainfall; +2°C, ?7% rainfall; and +3°C, ?46% rainfall. Our results demonstrate that the controls on forage production responses are complex, with functional characteristics of land types interacting to determine the magnitude and direction of change. Forage production may increase by up to 60% or decrease by up to 90% in response to the extreme scenarios of change. The magnitude of these responses is dependent on whether forage production is water or nitrogen (N) limited, and how climate changes influence these limiting conditions. Forage production responds most to changes in temperature and moisture availability in land types that are water-limited, and shows the least amount of change when growth is restricted by N availability. The fertilisation effects of doubled atmospheric CO₂ were found to offset declines in forage production under 2°C warming and a 7% reduction in rainfall. However, rising tree densities and declining land condition are shown to reduce potential opportunities from increases in forage production and raise the sensitivity of pastures to climate-induced water stress. Knowledge of these interactions can be applied in engaging with stakeholders to identify adaptation options.