Global comparison of the regional rainfall results of enhanced greenhouse coupled and mixed layer ocean experiments: Implications for climate change scenario development

The extent of agreement amongst current global climate models (GCMs) on the global pattern of rainfall change simulated under enhanced greenhouse conditions is assessed. We consider the results of five experiments which use a simple mixed layer ocean formulation and five which use a fully dynamic ocean model (coupled experiments). For many regions of the northern hemisphere there is strong agreement amongst both mixed layer and coupled experiments on the sign of simulated rainfall change. However, in the southern hemisphere there are large, and apparently systematic, differences between the coupled and mixed layer experiments. In particular, whereas the mixed layer experiments agree on simulated rainfall increase in summer in the tropics and subtropics of the Australian sector, the coupled experiments agree (although more weakly) on rainfall decreases. These differences appear to relate to the much reduced warming simulated by the coupled experiments in the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere. However, recent oceanographie evidence suggests that this suppressed warming may be considerably overestimated. We conclude therefore that despite the in-principle advantages of coupled models, it may be too soon to base some regionally specific climate change scenarios solely on the results of coupled experiments.     

Reliability analysis of drilled shaft behavior using finite difference method and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Monte Carlo</Emphasis> simulation

Load displacement analysis of drilled shafts can be accomplished by utilizing the “t-z” method, which models soil resistance along the length and tip of the drilled shaft as a series of springs. For non-linear soil springs, the governing differential equation that describes the soil-structure interaction may be discretized into a set of algebraic equations based upon finite difference methods. This system of algebraic equations may be solved to determine the load–displacement behavior of the drilled shaft when subjected to compression or pullout. By combining the finite difference method with Monte Carlo simulation techniques, a probabilistic load–displacement analysis can be conducted. The probabilistic analysis is advantageous compared to standard factor of safety design because uncertainties with the shaft–soil interface and tip properties can be independently quantified. This paper presents a reliability analysis of drilled shaft behavior by combining the finite difference technique for analyzing non-linear load–displacement behavior with Monte Carlo simulation method. As a result we develop probabilistic relationships for drilled shaft design for both total stress (undrained) and effective stress (drained) parameters. The results are presented in the form of factor of safety or resistance factors suitable for serviceability design of drilled shafts.     

Using a Thermal Proxy to Examine Sediment–Water Exchange in Mid-Continental Shelf Sandy Sediments

Fluid exchange across the sediment–water interface in a sandy open continental shelf setting was studied using heat as a tracer. Summertime tidal oscillation of cross-shelf thermal fronts on the South Atlantic Bight provided a sufficient signal at the sediment–water interface to trace the advective and conductive transport of heat into and out of the seabed, indicating rapid flushing of ocean water through the upper 10–40 cm of the sandy seafloor. A newly developed transport model was applied to the in situ temperature data set to estimate the extent to which heat was transported by advection rather than conduction. Heat transported by shallow 3-D porewater flow processes was accounted for in the model by using a dispersion term, the depth and intensity of which reflected the depth and intensity of shallow flushing. Similar to the results of past studies in shallower and more energetic nearshore settings, transport of heat was greater when higher near-bed velocities and shear stresses occurred over a rippled bed. However, boundary layer processes by themselves were insufficient to promote non-conductive heat transport. Advective heat transport only occurred when both larger boundary layer stresses and thermal instabilities within the porespace were present. The latter process is dependent on shelf-scale heating and cooling of bottom water associated with upwelling events that are not coupled to local-scale boundary layer processes.     

Impact of adsorbed petroleum hydrocarbons on marine organisms

Adsorptions of south Louisiana crude oil from seawater by clays, non-clay minerals and sediments were conducted in the laboratory. Effect of sediment-adsorbed and water dispersed crude oil on adult oysters were investigated in aquaria. Hydrocarbons in oyster tissues and surrounding water were identified by gas chromatography. Field specimens from an area of a new oil spill and an area five months after an oil spill were also analysed. Evidence of secondary chemical effect of aged oil in sediments on oyster mortality is presented. Oil coated asbestos surfaces severely reduced recruitment of sedentary larval organisms.     

Dynamical evolution properties of debris flows controlled by different mesh-sized flexible net barriers

Because the flexible net barrier is a gradually developed open-type debris-flow counter-measure, there are still uncertainties in its design criterion. By using several small-scale experimental flume model tests, the dynamical evolution properties of debris flows controlled by large and small mesh-sized (equal to D₉₀ and D₅₀, respectively) flexible net barriers are studied, including the debris flow behaviors, segregation, and permeability of sediments, as well as the energy absorption rates and potential overtopping occurring when debris flows impact the small mesh-sized one. Experimental results reveal that (a) two sediment deposition patterns are observed depending on variations in debris flow textures and mesh sizes; (b) the aggregation against flexible net barriers is dominated by flow dynamics; (c) the segregation and permeable functions of the barrier are determined by the mesh size, concentration, and flow dynamics; and (d) the smaller mesh-sized flexible net barrier tends to be more efficient in restraining more turbulent debris flows and can absorb greater rate of kinematic energy, and finally, the great kinematic energy dissipation that occurs when secondary debris flows interact with the post-deposits in front of the small mesh-sized flexible net barrier is believed to cause the failure of overtopping phenomenon. The mesh size is concluded to be the decisive parameter that should be associated with debris flow textures to design the control functions of flexible net barriers.     

Thin accretion disc with a corona in a central magnetic field

We study the steady-state structure of an accretion disc with a corona surrounding a central, rotating, magnetized star. We assume that the magneto-rotational instability is the dominant mechanism of angular momentum transport inside the disc and is responsible for producing magnetic tubes above the disc. In our model, a fraction of the dissipated energy inside the disc is transported to the corona via these magnetic tubes. This energy exchange from the disc to the corona which depends on the disc physical properties is modified because of the magnetic interaction between the stellar magnetic field and the accretion disc. According to our fully analytical solutions for such a system, the existence of a corona not only increases the surface density but reduces the temperature of the accretion disc. Also, the presence of a corona enhances the ratio of gas pressure to the total pressure. Our solutions show that when the strength of the magnetic field of the central neutron star is large or the star is rotating fast enough, profiles of the physical variables of the disc significantly modify due to the existence of a corona.     

Precursor times of abnormal <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-values prior to mainshocks

Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T _p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T _p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T _p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T _p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.     

New CCRMP Reference Uranium ore BL-5 And Sulphide Concentrates CCU-I, CPB-1 and CZN-1

Under the Canadian Certified Reference Mate-vials Project (CCRMP), four new ore reference materials, one uranium ore BL-5 and three sulphide concentrates (CCV-1, CPB-1 and CZN-1) have been recently issued. The preparation, characterization and certification of these samples are briefly presented.     

Structural Setting of Strong Earthquakes in the Huabei Area of China

— Using P and S arrival times, which occurred within the Huabei seismic network, we carried out a tomographic inversion and compared results with the earthquake catalogue of the last 1000?years in the area. The results are as follows:¶1) The hypocenters of most of the strong shocks are distributed in the transitional zones between high- and low-velocity areas in the crust, especially at edges of high-velocity blocks.¶2) Strong shocks predominantly lie above low-velocity blocks, or in transitional zones between low- and high-velocity areas, in the lower crust.¶3) The tectonic settings for the Tangshan and the Sanhe-Pingu earthquakes are similar. Both are not known near large fault belts, and in zones with a sharp lateral velocity gradient.¶4) The Ninghe, Tangshan and Luanxia earthquakes are located in high-velocity blocks that differ in size and depth. This difference can explain the focal depth distribution of the Tangshan earthquake sequence, i.e., earthquakes are shallower in the northeastern Luanxian area but deeper in the southwestern Ninghe area.