A new data assimilation procedure to develop a debris flow run-out model

Parameter calibration is one of the most problematic phases of numerical modeling since the choice of parameters affects the model’s reliability as far as the physical problems being studied are concerned. In some cases, laboratory tests or physical models evaluating model parameters cannot be completed and other strategies must be adopted; numerical models reproducing debris flow propagation are one of these. Since scale problems affect the reproduction of real debris flows in the laboratory or specific tests used to determine rheological parameters, calibration is usually carried out by comparing in a subjective way only a few parameters, such as the heights of soil deposits calculated for some sections of the debris flows or the distance traveled by the debris flows using the values detected in situ after an event has occurred. Since no automatic or objective procedure has as yet been produced, this paper presents a numerical procedure based on the application of a statistical algorithm, which makes it possible to define, without ambiguities, the best parameter set. The procedure has been applied to a study case for which digital elevation models of both before and after an important event exist, implicating that a good database for applying the method was available. Its application has uncovered insights to better understand debris flows and related phenomena.     

Present-day oxidative subsidence of organic soils and mitigation in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta,California, USA

Subsidence of organic soils in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta threatens sustainability of the California (USA) water supply system and agriculture. Land-surface elevation data were collected to assess present-day subsidence rates and evaluate rice as a land use for subsidence mitigation. To depict Delta-wide present-day rates of subsidence, the previously developed SUBCALC model was refined and calibrated using recent data for CO₂ emissions and land-surface elevation changes measured at extensometers. Land-surface elevation change data were evaluated relative to indirect estimates of subsidence and accretion using carbon and nitrogen flux data for rice cultivation. Extensometer and leveling data demonstrate seasonal variations in land-surface elevations associated with groundwater-level fluctuations and inelastic subsidence rates of 0.5–0.8 cm yr^–1. Calibration of the SUBCALC model indicated accuracy of ±0.10 cm yr^–1 where depth to groundwater, soil organic matter content and temperature are known. Regional estimates of subsidence range from <0.3 to >1.8 cm yr^–1. The primary uncertainty is the distribution of soil organic matter content which results in spatial averaging in the mapping of subsidence rates. Analysis of leveling and extensometer data in rice fields resulted in an estimated accretion rate of 0.02–0.8 cm yr^–1. These values generally agreed with indirect estimates based on carbon fluxes and nitrogen mineralization, thus preliminarily demonstrating that rice will stop or greatly reduce subsidence. Areas below elevations of –2 m are candidate areas for implementation of mitigation measures such as rice because there is active subsidence occurring at rates greater than 0.4 cm yr^–1.     

Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.     

Engineering geomorphological characterisation of the Vajont Slide,Italy, and a new interpretation of the chronology and evolution of the landslide

Although the 1963 Vajont Slide in Italy has been extensively studied for over 50 years, its regional geological and geomorphological context has been neglected. In this paper, we use field observations and remote sensing data to elucidate the interaction between endogenic and exogenic processes that brought the north slope of Monte Toc to failure. We present the first detailed pre- and post-failure engineering geomorphology maps of the slide area. The maps delineate two main landslide blocks, several sub-blocks, compressional and extensional zones, and secondary failures in the deposit. The maps provide new insights into the kinematics, dynamics and evolution of the slide. Finally, we discuss the origin of Vajont Gorge and a prehistoric failure that occurred at the same location as the 1963 slide. We propose, as part of a newly developed multi-stage landscape evolution sequence, that the prehistoric failure was a deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (sackung) that initiated during deglaciation and continued to slowly move until the catastrophic failure in 1963. We argue that the gorge was created by these deep-seated slow movements.     

Dynamics of land use (2007–2014) and future prospects for development of Russkii Island (Gulf of Peter the Great)

The dynamics of land use in Russkii Island is considered for the period from 2007 to 2014, and some issues of its future development are analyzed. The areas of lands of different categories and the maps of land use on the Sapernyi Peninsula are provided for different time spans. It is established that the implementation of the program of the preparation of Vladivostok for APEC Summit 2012 led to a substantial change in the land use pattern in Russkii Island: the area not involved in the economic turnover decreased by 5.09%, the zone of production, engineering and transport infrastructure increased by a factor of 21.5, and the share of lands for recreational purposes increased more than twice. It is shown that recreational activities implying a decrease in the share of lands not drawn into the economic turnover by more than a factor of 5 must become the dominant kind of land use (according to the program of development of Vladivostok). Attention is focused on the issue related to the creation of the territory of priority socioeconomic development in Russkii Island through the use of private-state partnership mechanisms. It is pointed out that the implementation of the development plans for the island is delayed, in spite of the legislative and financial support from federal and regional authorities. Emphasis is placed on the need to develop the program of comprehensive substantiation, modeling and forecasting of the development of Russkii Island in the interests of the sustainable functioning of the natural-economic system.     

Field observations of debris-flow initiation processes on sediment deposits in a previous deep-seated landslide site

Although information regarding the initiation processes of debris flows is important for the development of mitigation measures,field data regarding these processes are scarce.We conducted field observations of debris-flow initiation processes in the upper Ichinosawa catchment of the Ohya landslide,central Japan.On 19 June 2012,our videocamera monitoring systems recorded the moment of debris-flow initiation on channel deposits(nine surges) and talus slopes(eight surges).The initiation mechanisms of these surges were classified into three types by analyzing the video images: erosion by the surface flow,movement of deposits as a mass,and upward development of the fluid area.The first type was associated with the progress of surface flow from the upper stream on unsaturated channel deposits.The second type was likely caused by an increase in the pore water pressure associated with the rising in the groundwater level in channel deposits;a continuous water supply from the upper stream by the surface flow might have induced this saturation.The third type was associated with changes in the downstream topography caused by erosion.The flow velocity of most surges was less than 3 m s~(-1) and they usually stopped within 100 m from the initiation point.Surges with abundant pore fluid had a higher flow velocity(about 3- 5 m s~(-1)) and could travel for alonger duration.Our observations indicate that the surface flow plays an important role in the initiation of debris flows on channel deposits and talus slopes.     

Livelihood changes and evolution of upland ethnic communities driven by tourism: a case study in Guizhou Province,southwest China

As an effective livelihood approach to alleviate poverty without rural population migration, ethnic tourism has become the primary choice of economic development in ethnic areas worldwide in addition to traditional livelihood approaches. This article applies the theories of livelihood to study the community evolution driven by tourism livelihood and examine three mountainous tourism communities in different stages of tourist area life cycle. Drawing on the methods of GIS spatial analysis, semi-structured interviews and questionnaires, this article proposes a sustainable livelihood framework for ethnic tourism to explore the evolution of ethnic tourism communities by identifying changes in livelihood assets (natural, financial, social, cultural and human capitals) in the process of tourism development. The results show that the development of ethnic tourism has led to changes in the increase of building land, and the diversification of land use functions with a trend of shifting from meeting local villagers' living needs to satisfying tourists, income composition and uneven distribution of tourism income spatially. Ethnic tourism also led to the deterioration of traditional social management structure, collapse of neighboring relationship, the over- commercialization and staged authenticity of ethnic culture, as well as the gradual vanish of agricultural knowledge with a trend of increasing modern business knowledge and higher education. In addition, these changes, involving livelihood assets from natural, economic, human, social and cultural aspects are interrelated and interactive, which form new evolution characters of ethnic community. This study reveals the conflicts over livelihood approaches which have formed new vulnerabilities to impact on sustainable evolution of ethnic communities. This research provides implications for achieving the sustainable development of ethnic communities with the driving force of tourism livelihood.     

A public Cloud-based China’s Landslide Inventory Database (CsLID): development,zone, and spatiotemporal analysis for significant historical events, 1949-2011

Landslide inventory plays an important role in recording landslide events and showing their temporal-spatial distribution. This paper describes the development, visualization, and analysis of a China's Landslide Inventory Database (CsLID) by utilizing Google’s public cloud computing platform. Firstly, CsLID (Landslide Inventory Database) compiles a total of 1221 historical landslide events spanning the years 1949-2011 from relevant data sources. Secondly, the CsLID is further broken down into six zones for characterizing landslide cause-effect, spatiotemporal distribution, fatalities, and socioeconomic impacts based on the geological environment and terrain. The results show that among all the six zones, zone V, located in Qinba and Southwest Mountainous Area is the most active landslide hotspot with the highest landslide hazard in China. Additionally, the Google public cloud computing platform enables the CsLID to be easily accessible, visually interactive, and with the capability of allowing new data input to dynamically augment the database. This work developed a cyber-landslide inventory and used it to analyze the landslide temporal-spatial distribution in China.