Low-grade metamorphic rocks from the Pulur complex,NE Turkey: implications for the pre-Liassic evolution of the Eastern Pontides

In the Pulur complex (Sakarya Zone, Eastern Pontides, Turkey) a low-grade tectonometamorphic unit (Doankavak) is exposed in three tectonic windows beneath a complex medium-pressure high-temperature metamorphic unit of late Carboniferous age. The thrust plane between both units is transgressively covered by Liassic conglomerates. The Doankavak unit comprises a sequence of metabasites with MORB-type chemical compositions and phyllites, with subordinate calcareous phyllites, marbles, quarzofeldspathic schists and metacherts. This sequence is interpreted as a former accretionary complex related to the consumption of the Palaeotethys. Mineral parageneses in the metabasites allow for the distinction of two domains with slightly different peak metamorphic conditions, i.e. 375–425 °C/0.5–0.8 GPa (greenschist facies) and 400–470 °C/0.6–1.1 GPa (albite-epidote amphibolite facies). The age of metamorphism is constrained at ~ 260 Ma (early Late Permian) by two Rb-Sr mineral-whole rock ages (hornblende, phengite) and one ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar single step total fusion age (phengite). In conjunction with previous data on other accretionary complexes in the Sakarya zone in Northern Turkey, the data presented in this study suggest a continuous subduction of the Palaeotethys at least from Early/Late Permian to Late Triassic and a discontinuous preservation of accretion complexes in both space and time.     

Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score

Proper scoring rules provide a useful means to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Independent from scoring rules, it has been argued that reliability and resolution are desirable forecast attributes. The mathematical expectation value of the score allows for a decomposition into reliability and resolution related terms, demonstrating a relationship between scoring rules and reliability/resolution. A similar decomposition holds for the empirical (i.e. sample average) score over an archive of forecast–observation pairs. This empirical decomposition though provides a too optimistic estimate of the potential score (i.e. the optimum score which could be obtained through recalibration), showing that a forecast assessment based solely on the empirical resolution and reliability terms will be misleading. The differences between the theoretical and empirical decomposition are investigated, and specific recommendations are given how to obtain better estimators of reliability and resolution in the case of the Brier and Ignorance scoring rule.     

The coating hypothesis for ammonia ice particles in Jupiter: Laboratory experiments and optical modeling

We report laboratory experiments and modeling calculations investigating the effect of a hydrocarbon coating on ammonia ice spectral signatures. Observational evidence and thermochemical models indicate an abundance of ammonia ice clouds in Jupiter's atmosphere. However, spectrally identifiable ammonia ice clouds are found covering less than 1% of Jupiter's atmosphere, notably in areas of strong vertical transport, indicating a short lifetime for the signature of ammonia absorption on condensed ammonia particles [Baines, K.H., Carlson, R.W., Kamp, L.W., 2002. Icarus 159, 74-94]. Current literature has suggested coating of ammonia ice particles by a hydrocarbon haze as a possible explanation for this paradox. The work presented here supports the inference of a coating effect that can alter or suppress ammonia absorption features. In the experiments, thin films of ammonia ices are deposited in a cryogenic apparatus, coated with hydrocarbons, and characterized by reflection-absorption infrared spectroscopy. We have observed the effects on the ammonia ice absorption features near 3 and 9 μm with coverage by thin layers of hydrocarbons. Modeling calculations of these multilayer thin films assist in the interpretation of the experimental results and reveal the important role of optical interference in altering the aforementioned ammonia spectral features. Mie and T-matrix scattering calculations demonstrate analogous effects for ammonia ice particles and investigate the relative effects of ammonia ice particle size, shape, and coating layer thickness on the ice particle spectral signatures.     

Die F-Ionisation in den Morgenstunden

Zusammenfassung Die Elektronenkonzentration in derF-Schicht der Ionosphäre wächst in den Morgenstunden nicht einfach proportional dem Cosinus des Einfallswinkels der Sonnenstrahlung, sondern sie folgt einem linearen Gesetz von der Formn=a. cos +b. Diese Gestzmässigkeit kann erklärt werden, wenn man die Schichtbildung nach denChapman'schen Ansätzen für eine gekrümmte Erde berechnet und einen Ionenvernichtungsprozess voraussetzt, demzufolge die Vernichtung der Ionen ihrer jewwiligen Konzentration linear proportional ist.Die genannten Grössena andb sind zeitlich und örtlich variabel, aus ihren Veränderungen schliessen wir auf Temperaturverhältnisse in der Ionosphäre, die dadurch ausgezeichnet sind, dass sie in ähnlicher Weise auch in der viel tiefer liegenden Stratosphäre wiedergefunden werden: In polaren Gegenden herrschen darnach im Polarsommer höhere, im Polarwinter dagegen tiefere Temperaturen als in den gemässigten Breiten.

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Summary In the ionospheric F-layer the electron densityn increases with the formulan=a. cos+b in the morning ( is meaning the zenithangle of the sun). This experimental result may be explained by consideration of earth-curvature and by assumption of a linear recombination-law equally an attachment process. The constantsa andb vary with season and location. We conclude the temperature from these variations and we find for polar locations a greater temperature in the summer and on the other hand a smaller temperature in the winter as for temperate latitudes.

     

Stellenangebote und Stellengesuche

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Regionalisation of population growth projections in coastal exposure analysis

Large-area coastal exposure and impact analysis has focussed on using sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and has placed little emphasis on socioeconomic scenarios, while neglecting spatial variations of population dynamics. We use the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) Framework to assess the population exposed to 1 in 100-year coastal flood events under different population scenarios, that are consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); and different SLR scenarios, derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs); and analyse the effect of accounting for regionalised population dynamics on population exposure until 2100. In a reference approach, we use homogeneous population growth on national level. In the regionalisation approaches, we test existing spatially explicit projections that also account for urbanisation, coastal migration and urban sprawl. Our results show that projected global exposure in 2100 ranges from 100 million to 260 million, depending on the combination of SLR and population scenarios and method used for regionalising the population projections. The assessed exposure based on the regionalised approaches is higher than that derived from the reference approach by up to 60 million people (39%). Accounting for urbanisation and coastal migration leads to an increase in exposure, whereas considering urban sprawl leads to lower exposure. Differences between the reference and the regionalised approaches increase with higher SLR. The regionalised approaches show highest exposure under SSP5 over most of the twenty-first century, although total population in SSP5 is the second lowest overall. All methods project the largest absolute growth in exposure for Asia and relative growth for Africa.     

Differentiation for High-Precision GPS Velocity and Acceleration Determination

Accurate estimates of the velocity and acceleration of a platform are often needed in high dynamic positioning, airborne gravimetry, and geophysics. In turn, differentiation of GPS signals is a crucial process for obtaining these estimates. It is important in the measurement domain where, for example, the phase measurements are used along with their instantaneous derivative (Doppler) to estimate position and velocity. It is also important in postprocessing, where acceleration is usually estimated by differentiating estimates of position and velocity. Various methods of differentiating a signal can have very different effects on the resulting derivative, and their suitability varies from situation to situation. These comments set the stage for the investigations in this article. The objective is twofold: (1) to carry out a comprehensive study of possible differentiation methods, characterizing each in the frequency domain; and (2) to use real data to demonstrate each of these methods in both of the measurement and position domains, in conditions of variable, high, or unknown dynamics. Examples are given using real GPS data in both the measurement domain and in the position and velocity domain. The appropriate differentiator is used in several cases of varying dynamics to derive a Doppler signal from carrier phase measurements (rather than using the raw Doppler generated by the receiver). In the statistic case, it is seen that the accuracy of velocity estimates can be improved from 4.0 mm/s to 0.7 mm/s by using the correct filter. In conditions of medium dynamics experienced in an airborne gravity survey, it is demonstrated that accelerations as the 2–4 mGal level (1 mGal = 0.00001 m/s²) can be obtained at the required filtering periods. Finally, a precision motion table is used to show that when using the correct filter, velocity estimates under high dynamics can be improved by an order of magnitude to 27.0 mm/s. ? 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Late Quaternary growth and decay of the Svalbard/Barents Sea ice sheet and paleoceanographic evolution in the adjacent Arctic Ocean

 The paleoceanography in the Nordic seas was characterized by apparently repeated switching on and off of Atlantic water advection. In contrast, a continous influx of Atlantic waters probably occurred along the northern Barents Sea margin during the last 150 ka. Temporary ice-free conditions enhanced by subsurface Atlantic water advection and coastal polynyas accelerated the final ice sheet build-up during glacial times. The virtually complete dissolution of biogenic calcite during interglacial intervals was controlled mainly by CO₂-rich bottom waters and oxidation of higher levels of marine organic carbon and indicates intensive Atlantic water inflow and a stable ice margin. Received: 25 February 1997 / Revision received: 4 March 1998