Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.     

Organizational Dynamics of the U.S. Logistics Industry: An Economic Geography Perspective*

Although the logistics industry provides critical services to all sectors of the economy, few studies exist in economic geography that examine and explain the organizational dynamics of this industry. This article highlights the significance of the logistics industry in contemporary industrialization and argues that an enriched understanding of the interaction between technology and space can be achieved by examining the evolution of an industry that plays a central role in the contemporary economy. We focus on dimensions that are identified as particularly important: organizational, geographic, and risk and security.     

A reconstruction of Archean biological diversity based on molecular fossils from the 2.78 to 2.45 billion-year-old Mount Bruce Supergroup, Hamersley Basin, Western Australia

Bitumens extracted from 2.7 to 2.5 billion-year-old (Ga) shales of the Fortescue and Hamersley Groups in the Pilbara Craton, Western Australia, contain traces of molecular fossils. Based on a combination of molecular characteristics typical of many Precambrian bitumens, their consistently and unusually high thermal maturities, and their widespread distribution throughout the Hamersley Basin, the bitumens can be characterized as ‘probably of Archean age’. Accepting this interpretation, the biomarkers open a new window on Archean biodiversity. The presence of hopanes in the Archean rocks confirms the antiquity of the domain Bacteria, and high relative concentrations of 2α-methylhopanes indicate that cyanobacteria were important primary producers. Oxygenic photosynthesis therefore evolved > 2.7 Ga ago, and well before independent evidence suggests significant levels of oxygen accumulated in the atmosphere. Moreover, the abundance of cyanobacterial biomarkers in shales interbedded with oxide-facies banded iron formations (BIF) indicates that although some Archean BIF might have been formed by abiotic photochemical processes or anoxygenic phototrophic bacteria, those in the Hamersley Group formed as a direct consequence of biological oxygen production. Biomarkers of the 3β-methylhopane series suggest that microaerophilic heterotrophic bacteria, probably methanotrophs or methylotrophs, were active in late Archean environments. The presence of steranes in a wide range of structures with relative abundances like those from late Paleoproterozoic to Phanerozoic sediments is convincing evidence for the existence of eukaryotes in the late Archean, 900 Ma before visible fossil evidence indicates that the lineage arose. Sterol biosynthesis in extant eukaryotes requires molecular oxygen. The presence of steranes together with biomarkers of oxygenic photosynthetic cyanobacteria suggests that the concentration of dissolved oxygen in some regions of the upper water column was equivalent to at least ∼1% of the present atmospheric level (PAL) and may have been sufficient to support aerobic respiration.     

Relative timing of deformation and two-stage gold mineralization at the Hutti Mine, Dharwar Craton, India

Gold mineralization at Hutti is confined to a series of nine parallel, N–S to NNW–SSE trending, steeply dipping shear zones. The host rocks are amphibolites and meta-rhyolites metamorphosed at peak conditions of 660±40°C and 4±1 kbar. They are weakly foliated (S₁) and contain barren quartz extension veins. The auriferous shear zones (reefs) are typically characterized by four alteration assemblages and laminated quartz veins, which, in places, occupy the entire reef width of 2–10 m, and contain the bulk of gold mineralization. A <1.5 m wide distal chlorite-sericite (+biotite, calcite, plagioclase) alteration zone can be distinguished from a 3–5 m wide proximal biotite-plagioclase (+quartz, muscovite, calcite) alteration zone. Gold is both spatially and temporally associated with disseminated arsenopyrite and pyrite mineralization. An inner chlorite-K-feldspar (+quartz, calcite, scheelite, tourmaline, sphene, epidote, sericite) alteration halo, which rims the laminated quartz veins, is characterized by a pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite, sphalerite, ilmenite, rutile, and gold paragenesis. The distal chlorite-sericite and proximal biotite-plagioclase alteration assemblages are developed in microlithons of the S₂–S₃ crenulation cleavage and are replaced along S₃ by the inner chlorite-K-feldspar alteration, indicating a two-stage evolution for gold mineralization. Ductile D₂ shearing, alteration, and gold mineralization formed the reefs during retrograde evolution and fluid infiltration under upper greenschist to lower amphibolite facies conditions (560±60°C, 2±1 kbar). The reefs were reactivated in the D₃ dextral strike-slip to oblique-slip environment by fault-valve behavior at lower greenschist facies conditions (ca. 300–350°C), which formed the auriferous laminated quartz veins. Later D₄ crosscutting veins and D₅ faults overprint the gold mineralization. The alteration mineralogy and the structural control of the deposit clearly points to an orogenic style of gold mineralization, which took place either during isobaric cooling or at different levels of the Archean crust. From overlaps in the tectono-metamorphic history, it is concluded that gold mineralization occurred during two tectonic events, affecting the eastern Dharwar craton in south India between ca. 2550 – 2530 Ma: (1) The assemblage of various terranes of the eastern block, and (2) a tectono-magmatic event, which caused late- to posttectonic plutonism and a thermal perturbation. It differs, however, from the pre-peak metamorphic gold mineralization at Kolar and the single-stage mineralization at Ramagiri. Notably, greenschist facies gold mineralization occurred at Hutti 35–90 million years later than in the western Dharwar craton. Editorial handling: G. Beaudoin     

The role of baseflow in dissolved solids delivery to streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Salinity has a major effect on water users in the Colorado River Basin, estimated to cause almost $300 million per year in economic damages. The Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Program implements and manages projects to reduce salinity loads, investing millions of dollars per year in irrigation upgrades, canal projects, and other mitigation strategies. To inform and improve mitigation efforts, there is a need to better understand sources of salinity to streams and how salinity has changed over time. This study explores salinity in the baseflow fraction of streamflow, assessing whether groundwater is a significant contributor of dissolved solids to streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Chemical hydrograph separation was used to estimate baseflow discharge and baseflow dissolved solids loads at stream gages (n = 69) across the UCRB. On average, it is estimated that 89% of dissolved solids loads originate from the baseflow fraction of streamflow, indicating that subsurface transport processes play a dominant role in delivering dissolved solids to streams in the UCRB. A statistical trend analysis using weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season was used to evaluate changes in baseflow dissolved solids loads in streams (n = 27) from 1986 to 2011. Decreasing trends in baseflow dissolved solids loads were observed at 63% of streams. At the three most downstream sites, Green River at Green River, UT, Colorado River at Cisco, UT, and the San Juan River near Bluff, UT, baseflow dissolved solids loads decreased by a combined 823,000 metric tons (mT), which is approximately 69% of projected basin‐scale decreases in total dissolved solids loads as a result of salinity control efforts. Decreasing trends in baseflow dissolved solids loads suggest that salinity mitigation projects, landscape changes, and/or climate are reducing dissolved solids transported to streams through the subsurface. Notably, the pace and extent of decreases in baseflow dissolved solids loads declined during the most recent decade; average decreasing loads during the 2000s (28,200 mT) were only 54% of average decreasing loads in the 1990s (51,700 mT).     

Geochronological and petrological constraints from the evolution in the Saxon Granulite Massif,Germany, on the Variscan continental collision orogeny

Controversy over the plate tectonic affinity and evolution of the Saxon granulites in a two‐ or multi‐plate setting during inter‐ or intracontinental collision makes the Saxon Granulite Massif a key area for the understanding of the Palaeozoic Variscan orogeny. The massif is a large dome structure in which tectonic slivers of metapelite and metaophiolite units occur along a shear zone separating a diapir‐like body of high‐P granulite below from low‐P metasedimentary rocks above. Each of the upper structural units records a different metamorphic evolution until its assembly with the exhuming granulite body. New age and petrologic data suggest that the metaophiolites developed from early Cambrian protoliths during high‐P amphibolite facies metamorphism in the mid‐ to late‐Devonian and thermal overprinting by the exhuming hot granulite body in the early Carboniferous. A correlation of new Ar–Ar biotite ages with published P–T–t data for the granulites implies that exhumation and cooling of the granulite body occurred at average rates of ~8 mm/year and ~80°C/Ma, with a drop in exhumation rate from ~20 to ~2.5 mm/year and a slight rise in cooling rate between early and late stages of exhumation. A time lag of c. 2 Ma between cooling through the closure temperatures for argon diffusion in hornblende and biotite indicates a cooling rate of 90°C/Ma when all units had assembled into the massif. A two‐plate model of the Variscan orogeny in which the above evolution is related to a short‐lived intra‐Gondwana subduction zone conflicts with the oceanic affinity of the metaophiolites and the timescale of c. 50 Ma for the metamorphism. Alternative models focusing on the internal Variscan belt assume distinctly different material paths through the lower or upper crust for strikingly similar granulite massifs. An earlier proposed model of bilateral subduction below the internal Variscan belt may solve this problem.     

Contribution of Mangroves and Salt Marshes to Nature-Based Mitigation of Coastal Flood Risks in Major Deltas of the World

Nature-based solutions are rapidly gaining interest in the face of global change and increasing flood risks. While assessments of flood risk mitigation by coastal ecosystems are mainly restricted to local scales, our study assesses the contribution of salt marshes and mangroves to nature-based storm surge mitigation in 11 large deltas around the world. We present a relatively simple GIS model that, based on globally available input data, provides an estimation of the tidal wetland’s capacity of risk mitigation at a regional scale. It shows the high potential of nature-based solutions, as tidal wetlands, to provide storm surge mitigation to more than 80% of the flood-exposed land area for 4 of the 11 deltas and to more than 70% of the flood-exposed population for 3 deltas. The magnitude of the nature-based mitigation, estimated as the length of the storm surge pathway crossing through tidal wetlands, was found to be significantly correlated to the total wetland area within a delta. This highlights the importance of conserving extensive continuous tidal wetlands as a nature-based approach to mitigate flood risks. Our analysis further reveals that deltas with limited historical wetland reclamation and therefore large remaining wetlands, such as the Mississippi, the Niger, and part of the Ganges-Brahmaputra deltas, benefit from investing in the conservation of their vast wetlands, while deltas with extensive historical wetland reclamation, such as the Yangtze and Rhine deltas, may improve the sustainability of flood protection programs by combining existing hard engineering with new nature-based solutions through restoration of former wetlands.     

Advances in the numerical solution of the linear molodensky problem

The solution of the linear Molodensky problem by analytical continuation to point level is numerically the most convenient of all the theoretically equivalent solutions. It is obtained by successively applying the same integral operator and it does not depend explicitly on the terrain inclination. However, its dependence on the computation point restricts somehow the computational efficiency. The use of the Fourier transform for the evaluation of the integral operator in planar approximation lessens significantly the burden of computations. Using this spectral approach, the problem has been reformulated and solved in the frequency domain. Moreover, it is shown that the solution can be easily split into two steps: (a) “downward” continuation to sea level, which is independent of the computation point, and (b) “upward” continuation from sea to point level, using the values computed at sea level. Such a treatment not only simplifies the formulas and increases the numerical efficiency but also clarifies the physical interpretation and the theoretical equivalence of the continuation solution with respect to the other solution types. Numerical tests have been performed to investigate which terms in the Molodensky series are of significance for geoid and deflection computations. The practical difficulty of differences in the grid spacings of gravity and height data has been overcome by frequency domain interpolation. Presented at theXIX IUGG General Assembly, Vancouver, B.C., August 9–22, 1987.     

A unified approach to post-mission processing of intertial data

The outpout of inertial survey systems is available to the user in two basic forms: as Kalman filtered information at updates or as integrated velocity and position information at regular time intervals. In case of the second data type, the post-mission processing starts with the approximation of the velocity error curve. This approximation is either based on a system error model as in Kalman filtering or uses curve fitting techniques. From there on, smoothing or adjustment procedures are used as further steps in the post-mission treatment of both data types. A unified treatment of the various post-mission approaches starts with the formulation of appropriate error models of the system outputs. It is then possible to present all existing methods as intermediate steps of a rigorous adjustment procedure. This unified approach gives insight into the limitations of individual methods and provides a means to detect inconsistencies in post-mission processing strategies. An analysis of existing approaches is made and a new method, spectral decomposition, is treated in detail. Compared to the existing procedures, it has advantages with respect to a rigorous covariance propagation and blunder detection.