Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe

The Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project, which began in June 2009, aims at establishing new standards for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this context, a logic tree for ground-motion prediction in Europe has been constructed. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and weights have been determined so that the logic tree captures epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction for six different tectonic regimes in Europe. Here we present the strategy that we adopted to build such a logic tree. This strategy has the particularity of combining two complementary and independent approaches: expert judgment and data testing. A set of six experts was asked to weight pre-selected GMPEs while the ability of these GMPEs to predict available data was evaluated with the method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234?C3247, 2009). Results of both approaches were taken into account to commonly select the smallest set of GMPEs to capture the uncertainty in ground-motion prediction in Europe. For stable continental regions, two models, both from eastern North America, have been selected for shields, and three GMPEs from active shallow crustal regions have been added for continental crust. For subduction zones, four models, all non-European, have been chosen. Finally, for active shallow crustal regions, we selected four models, each of them from a different host region but only two of them were kept for long periods. In most cases, a common agreement has been also reached for the weights. In case of divergence, a sensitivity analysis of the weights on the seismic hazard has been conducted, showing that once the GMPEs have been selected, the associated set of weights has a smaller influence on the hazard.     

An Observational Study of Wind Profiles in the Baroclinic Convective Mixed Layer

A comprehensive planetary boundary-layer (PBL) and synoptic data set is used to isolate the mechanisms that determine the vertical shear of the horizontal wind in the convective mixed layer. To do this, we compare a fair-weather convective PBL with no vertical shear through the mixed layer (10 March 1992), with a day with substantial vertical shear in the north-south wind component (27 February). The approach involves evaluating the terms of the budget equations for the two components of the vertical shear of the horizontal wind; namely: the time-rate-of-change or time-tendency term, differential advection, the Coriolis terms (a thermal wind term and a shear term), and the second derivative of the vertical transport of horizontal momentum with respect to height (turbulent-transport term). The data, gathered during the 1992 STorm-scale Operational and Research Meteorology (STORM) Fronts Experiments Systems Test (FEST) field experiment, are from gust-probe aircraft horizontal legs and soundings, 915-MHz wind profilers, a 5-cm Doppler radar, radiosondes, and surface Portable Automated Mesonet (PAM) stations in a roughly 50 × 50 km boundary-layer array in north-eastern Kansas, nested in a mesoscale-to-synoptic array of radiosondes and surface data.We present evidence that the shear on 27 February is related to the rapid growth of the convective boundary layer. Computing the shear budget over a fixed depth (the final depth of the mixed layer), we find that the time-tendency term dominates, reflecting entrainment of high-shear air from above the boundary layer. We suggest that shear within the mixed layer occurs when the time-tendency term is sufficiently large that the shear-reduction terms – namely the turbulent-transport term and differential advection terms – cannot compensate. In contrast, the tendency term is small for the slowly-growing PBL of 10 March, resulting in a balance between the Coriolis terms and the turbulent-transport term. Thus, the thermal wind appears to influence mixed-layer shear only indirectly, through its role in determining the entrained shear.     

Water quality, nutrients and the water framework directive in an agricultural region: The lower Humber Rivers, northern England

The water quality of rivers in the eastern part of the Humber Basin, north-eastern England is described from a baseflow survey (11–13 August 2006) of a wide range of water quality determinants, and long-term nutrient records of the Environment Agency of England and Wales (EA). The baseflow survey shows that the rivers are oversaturated with respect to dissolved CO₂ and calcite. They are sodium, potassium, lithium, boron, chloride, sulphate and fluoride bearing from a combination of atmospheric, within-catchment, agricultural and sewage effluent sources. Nitrate concentrations are uniform for rivers draining permeable bedrock but decrease for clay drainage areas. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations are variable across the catchments reflecting the importance and variability of point sources and within-river processing. The EA data show annual oscillations for both NO₃ and SRP concentrations. Average NO₃ concentrations vary between 3.3 and 18.8 mgN/l and concentrations are low during the summer months. Average SRP concentrations vary between 23 and 1959 μg/l. Highest SRP concentrations generally occur when there is effluent input from sewage treatment works and agricultural point sources (e.g. overflow from slurry tanks, farmyard washings). Despite many of the rivers being nutrient rich, they are generally of good biological quality when point source inputs are not important.     

Organochlorine contaminants in endangered Hawaiian monk seals from four subpopulations in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

We analyzed blubber and blood samples for organochlorines (OCs) from 158 Hawaiian monk seals (Monachus schauinslandi) at four of their six primary breeding colonies in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Levels of OCs in blubber were lower in adult females compared to juveniles or adult males, evidently owing to the transfer of these lipophilic compounds to pups by pregnant and lactating females. Concentrations of SigmaPCBs and p,p'-DDE in blubber generally increased with age until seals were sexually mature and then continued to increase with age in males after puberty. Average levels of PCBs and PCB toxic equivalents (TEQs) in blubber were significantly higher in adult male and juvenile seals at Midway Atoll than the same age class of seals at the other colonies. Unlike concentrations of OCs in blubber, circulating levels of OCs in blood did not vary consistently among age classes of seals or among breeding colonies. Though the concentrations of OCs measured in Hawaiian monk seals were generally equal to or lower than those reported for other pinniped species in the North Pacific Ocean, they were high enough in a few seals to potentially affect their health.     

On board short-time high temperature heat treatment of ballast water: a field trial under operational conditions

A ballast water short-time high temperature heat treatment technique was applied on board a car-carrier during a voyage from Egypt to Belgium. Ballast water from three tanks was subjected for a few seconds to temperatures ranging from 55 degrees C to 80 degrees C. The water was heated using the vessel's heat exchanger steam and a second heat exchanger was used to pre-heat and cool down the water. The treatment was effective at causing mortality of bacteria, phytoplankton and zooplankton. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) standard was not agreed before this study was carried out, but comparing our results gives a broad indication that the IMO standard would have been met in some of the tests for the zooplankton, in all the tests for the phytoplankton; and probably on most occasions for the bacteria. Passing the water through the pump increased the kill rate but increasing the temperature above 55 degrees C did not improve the heat treatment's efficacy.     

Midden formation and intrasite chemical patterning in Kalinga,Philippines

Middens are surprisingly fluid entities in occupied communities, as shown by ethnoarchaeological research in Dalupa, Kalinga Province, northern Luzon, the Philippines. This study combines ethnoarchaeological observations of midden formation and disturbance in Dalupa with data from soils and sediments in natural, habitation, and midden contexts, including elemental data for 80 samples collected using inductively coupled plasma‐atomic emission spectroscopy. Most surface samples from habitation areas cluster with midden samples, although samples from the lower parts of theses profiles resemble samples from natural contexts around Dalupa. One explanation is a changing spatial distribution of active middens due to changes in house placement and occupation in Dalupa's history. Some habitation areas that chemically resemble middens may once have held middens, as suggested by the periodic changes in midden location from the cleaning and management of extramural space. Surface scatters of human and animal refuse throughout the habitation area may also contribute to this pattern. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Landscape metrics as predictors of hydrologic connectivity between Coastal Plain forested wetlands and streams

Geographically isolated wetlands, those entirely surrounded by uplands, provide numerous landscape‐scale ecological functions, many of which are dependent on the degree to which they are hydrologically connected to nearby waters. There is a growing need for field‐validated, landscape‐scale approaches for classifying wetlands on the basis of their expected degree of hydrologic connectivity with stream networks. This study quantified seasonal variability in surface hydrologic connectivity (SHC) patterns between forested Delmarva bay wetland complexes and perennial/intermittent streams at 23 sites over a full‐water year (2014–2015). Field data were used to develop metrics to predict SHC using hypothesized landscape drivers of connectivity duration and timing. Connection duration was most strongly related to the number and area of wetlands within wetland complexes as well as the channel width of the temporary stream connecting the wetland complex to a perennial/intermittent stream. Timing of SHC onset was related to the topographic wetness index and drainage density within the catchment. Stepwise regression modelling found that landscape metrics could be used to predict SHC duration as a function of wetland complex catchment area, wetland area, wetland number, and soil available water storage (adj‐R² = 0.74, p < .0001). Results may be applicable to assessments of forested depressional wetlands elsewhere in the U.S. Mid‐Atlantic and Southeastern Coastal Plain, where climate, landscapes, and hydrological inputs and losses are expected to be similar to the study area.     

Factors influencing landscape pattern of the seagrass Halophila decipiens in an oceanic setting

The scale of landscape pattern formation of an ecological community may provide clues as to the processes influencing its spatial and temporal dynamics. We conducted an examination of the spatial organization of an annual seagrass (Halophila decipiens) in an open ocean setting at two spatial scales and growing seasons to identify the relative influence of external (hurricanes) versus internal (clonal growth) factors. Visual surveys of seagrass cover were conducted over 2 years within three replicate 1 km² study areas each separated by ∼25 km in an inshore–offshore transect along the southwest coast of Florida at depths between ∼10 and 30 m. A towed video sled allowed observations of seagrass cover of 1 m² areas approximately every 6 m over thousands of meters of evenly spaced transects within the study areas (coarse scale). The towed video revealed that 17.5% of the seafloor was disturbed irrespective of location or sample time. Randomly selected 10 × 10 m quadrats within the larger, 1 km² study areas were completely surveyed for seagrass cover by divers at 0.625 m² resolution (fine scale). The coarse-scale observations were tested using both conventional geostatistics and an application of a time-series technique (Runs test) for scale of seagrass cover contiguity. Fine-scale observations were examined using conventional geostatistics and a least squares approach (cumulative logistic).     

The Wasatch Environmental Observatory: A mountain to urban research network in the semi-arid western US

The 2085 km² Jordan River Basin, and its seven sub-catchments draining the Central Wasatch Range immediately east of Salt Lake City, UT, are home to an array of hydrologic, atmospheric, climatic and chemical research infrastructure that collectively forms the Wasatch Environmental Observatory (WEO). WEO is geographically nested within a wildland to urban land-use gradient and built upon a strong foundation of over a century of discharge and climate records. A 2200 m gradient in elevation results in variable precipitation, temperature and vegetation patterns. Soil and subsurface structure reflect systematic variation in geology from granitic, intrusive to mixed sedimentary clastic across headwater catchments, all draining to the alluvial or colluvial sediments of the former Lake Bonneville. Winter snowfall and spring snowmelt control annual hydroclimate, rapid population growth dominates geographic change in lower elevations and urban gas and particle emissions contribute to episodes of severe air pollution in this closed-basin. Long-term hydroclimate observations across this diverse landscape provide the foundation for an expanding network of infrastructure in both montane and urban landscapes. Current infrastructure supports both basic and applied research in atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemistry, climate, ecology, hydrology, meteorology, resource management and urban redesign that is augmented through strong partnerships with cooperating agencies. These features allow WEO to serve as a unique natural laboratory for addressing research questions facing seasonally snow-covered, semi-arid regions in a rapidly changing world and an excellent facility for providing student education and research training.