Facilitating adaptation of biodiversity to climate change: a conceptual framework applied to the world’s largest Mediterranean-climate woodland

The importance of ecological management for reducing the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change is increasingly recognized, yet frameworks to facilitate a structured approach to climate adaptation management are lacking. We developed a conceptual framework that can guide identification of climate change impacts and adaptive management options in a given region or biome. The framework focuses on potential points of early climate change impact, and organizes these along two main axes. First, it recognizes that climate change can act at a range of ecological scales. Secondly, it emphasizes that outcomes are dependent on two potentially interacting and countervailing forces: (1) changes to environmental parameters and ecological processes brought about by climate change, and (2) responses of component systems as determined by attributes of resistance and resilience. Through this structure, the framework draws together a broad range of ecological concepts, with a novel emphasis on attributes of resistance and resilience that can temper the response of species, ecosystems and landscapes to climate change. We applied the framework to the world’s largest remaining Mediterranean-climate woodland, the ‘Great Western Woodlands’ of south-western Australia. In this relatively intact region, maintaining inherent resistance and resilience by preventing anthropogenic degradation is of highest priority and lowest risk. Limited, higher risk options such as fire management, protection of refugia and translocation of adaptive genes may be justifiable under more extreme change, hence our capacity to predict the extent of change strongly impinges on such management decisions. These conclusions may contrast with similar analyses in degraded landscapes, where natural integrity is already compromised, and existing investment in restoration may facilitate experimentation with higher risk?options.     

Changes in atmospheric circulation and the Arctic Oscillation preserved within a millennial length reconstruction of summer cloud cover from northern Fennoscandia

Cloud cover currently represents the single greatest source of uncertainty in General Circulation Models. Stable carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C) from tree-rings, in areas of low moisture stress, are likely to be primarily controlled by photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and therefore should provide a proxy record for cloud cover or sunshine; indeed this association has previously been demonstrated experimentally for Scots pine in Fennoscandia, with sunlight explaining ca 90% of the variance in photosynthesis and temperature only ca 4%. We present a statistically verifiable 1011-year reconstruction of cloud cover from a well replicated, annually-resolved δ¹³C record from Forfjord in coastal northwestern Norway. This reconstruction exhibits considerable variability in cloud cover over the past millennium, including extended sunny periods during the cool seventeenth and eighteenth centuries and warm cloudy periods during the eleventh, early fifteenth and twentieth centuries. We find that while a generally positive relationship persists between sunshine and temperature at high-frequency, at lower (multi-decadal) frequencies the relationship is more often a negative one, with cool periods being sunny (most notably the Little Ice Age period from 1600 to 1750 CE) and warm periods more cloudy (e.g. the mediaeval and the twentieth century). We conclude that these long-term changes may be caused by changes in the dominant circulation mode, likely to be associated with the Arctic Oscillation. There is also strong circumstantial evidence that prolonged periods of high summer cloud cover, with low PAR and probably high precipitation, may be in part responsible for major European famines caused by crop failures.     

Newly recognized hosts for uranium in the Hanford Site vadose zone

Uranium contaminated sediments from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site have been investigated using electron microscopy. Six classes of solid hosts for uranium were identified. Preliminary sediment characterization was carried out using optical petrography, and electron microprobe analysis (EMPA) was used to locate materials that host uranium. All of the hosts are fine-grained and intergrown with other materials at spatial scales smaller than the analytical volume of the electron microprobe. A focused ion beam (FIB) was used to prepare electron-transparent specimens of each host for the transmission electron microscope (TEM). The hosts were identified as: (1) metatorbernite [Cu(UO₂)₂(PO₄)₂·8H₂O]; (2) coatings on sediment clasts comprised mainly of phyllosilicates; (3) an amorphous zirconium (oxyhydr)oxide found in clast coatings; (4) amorphous and poorly crystalline materials that line voids within basalt lithic fragments; (5) amorphous palagonite surrounding fragments of basaltic glass; and (6) Fe- and Mn-oxides. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of combining EMPA, FIB, and TEM to identify solid-phase contaminant hosts. Furthermore, they highlight the complexity of U geochemistry in the Hanford vadose zone, and illustrate the importance of microscopic transport in controlling the fate of contaminant metals in the environment.     

From contesting to conversing about resilience: kickstarting measurement in complex research environments

Natural Hazards - Landslides are one of the most damaging disastrous phenomena that frequently lead to serious problems in hilly areas. The Namchi region of South Sikkim district as a part of...     

Heterogeneously entrapped,vapor-rich melt inclusions record pre-eruptive magmatic volatile contents

Silicate melt inclusions (MI) commonly provide the best record of pre-eruptive H₂O and CO₂ contents of subvolcanic melts, but the concentrations of CO₂ and H₂O in the melt (glass) phase within MI can be modified by partitioning into a vapor bubble after trapping. Melt inclusions may also enclose vapor bubbles together with the melt (i.e., heterogeneous entrapment), affecting the bulk volatile composition of the MI, and its post-entrapment evolution. In this study, we use numerical modeling to examine the systematics of post-entrapment volatile evolution within MI containing various proportions of trapped vapor from zero to 95 volume percent. Modeling indicates that inclusions that trap only a vapor-saturated melt exhibit significant decrease in CO₂ and moderate increase in H₂O concentrations in the melt upon nucleation and growth of a vapor bubble. In contrast, inclusions that trap melt plus vapor exhibit subdued CO₂ depletion at equivalent conditions. In the extreme case of inclusions that trap mostly the vapor phase (i.e., CO₂–H₂O fluid inclusions containing trapped melt), degassing of CO₂ from the melt is negligible. In the latter scenario, the large fraction of vapor enclosed in the MI during trapping essentially serves as a buffer, preventing post-entrapment modification of volatile concentrations in the melt. Hence, the glass phase within such heterogeneously entrapped, vapor-rich MI records the volatile concentrations of the melt at the time of trapping. These numerical modeling results suggest that heterogeneously entrapped MI containing large vapor bubbles represent amenable samples for constraining pre-eruptive volatile concentrations of subvolcanic melts.     

Using basic metrics to analyze high-resolution temperature data in the subsurface

Time-series temperature data can be summarized to provide valuable information on spatial variation in subsurface flow, using simple metrics. Such computationally light analysis is often discounted in favor of more complex models. However, this study demonstrates the merits of summarizing high-resolution temperature data, obtained from a fiber optic cable installation at several depths within a water delivery channel, into daily amplitudes and mean temperatures. These results are compared to fluid flux estimates from a one-dimensional (1D) advection-conduction model and to the results of a previous study that used a full three-dimensional (3D) model. At a depth of 0.1 m below the channel, plots of amplitude suggested areas of advective water movement (as confirmed by the 1D and 3D models). Due to lack of diurnal signal at depths below 0.1 m, mean temperature was better able to identify probable areas of water movement at depths of 0.25–0.5 m below the channel. The high density of measurements provided a 3D picture of temperature change over time within the study reach, and would be suitable for long-term monitoring in man-made environments such as constructed wetlands, recharge basins, and water-delivery channels, where a firm understanding of spatial and temporal variation in infiltration is imperative for optimal functioning.     

A Comparison of Hyporheic Transport at a Cross‐Vane Structure and Natural Riffle

While restoring hyporheic flowpaths has been cited as a benefit to stream restoration structures, little documentation exists confirming that constructed restoration structures induce comparable hyporheic exchange to natural stream features. This study compares a stream restoration structure (cross‐vane) to a natural feature (riffle) concurrently in the same stream reach using time‐lapsed electrical resistivity (ER) tomography. Using this hydrogeophysical approach, we were able to quantify hyporheic extent and transport beneath the cross‐vane structure and the riffle. We interpret from the geophysical data that the cross‐vane and the natural riffle induced spatially and temporally unique hyporheic extent and transport, and the cross‐vane created both spatially larger and temporally longer hyporheic flowpaths than the natural riffle. Tracer from the 4.67‐h injection was detected along flowpaths for 4.6 h at the cross‐vane and 4.2 h at the riffle. The spatial extent of the hyporheic zone at the cross‐vane was 12% larger than that at the riffle. We compare ER results of this study to vertical fluxes calculated from temperature profiles and conclude significant differences in the interpretation of hyporheic transport from these different field techniques. Results of this study demonstrate a high degree of heterogeneity in transport metrics at both the cross‐vane and the riffle and differences between the hyporheic flowpath networks at the two different features. Our results suggest that restoration structures may be capable of creating sufficient exchange flux and timescales of transport to achieve the same ecological functions as natural features, but engineering of the physical and biogeochemical environment may be necessary to realize these benefits.     

Methane emission measurements in urban areas in Eastern Germany

We have investigated methane emissions from urban sources in the former East Germany using innovative measurement techniques including a mobile real-time methane instrument and tracer release experiments. Anthropogenic and biogenic sources were studied with the emphasis on methane emissions from gas system sources, including urban distribution facilities and a production plant. Methane fluxes from pressure regulating stations ranged from 0.006 to 24. l/min. Emissions from diffuse sources in urban areas were also measured with concentration maps and whole city flux experiments. The area fluxes of the two towns studied were 0.37 and 1.9 g/m²/s. The emissions from individual gas system stations and total town emissions of this study are comparable to results of similar sites examined in the United States.     

Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO₂ emissions indicate that by the end of the 21^st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO₂ concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6 m, and 2–6 °C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associated with changes in annual streamflow, though it is likely that winter and spring flows will increase. Climate change alone will cause the Bay to function very differently in the future. Likely changes include: (1) an increase in coastal flooding and submergence of estuarine wetlands; (2) an increase in salinity variability on many time scales; (3) an increase in harmful algae; (4) an increase in hypoxia; (5) a reduction of eelgrass, the dominant submerged aquatic vegetation in the Bay; and (6) altered interactions among trophic levels, with subtropical fish and shellfish species ultimately being favored in the Bay. The magnitude of these changes is sensitive to the CO₂ emission trajectory, so that actions taken now to reduce CO₂ emissions will reduce climate impacts on the Bay. Research needs include improved precipitation and streamflow projections for the Bay watershed and whole-system monitoring, modeling, and process studies that can capture the likely non-linear responses of the Chesapeake Bay system to climate variability, climate change, and their interaction with other anthropogenic stressors.