Topographical controls on small‐volume pyroclastic flows

Emplacement of small‐volume (<0·1 km³) pyroclastic flows is significantly influenced by topography. The Arico ignimbrite on Tenerife (Canary Islands) is a characteristic small‐volume pyroclastic flow deposit emplaced on high relief topography. The pyroclastic flow flowed down pre‐existing valleys on the southern slopes of the island. In proximal areas deep (up to 100 m) valleys acted as efficient conduits for the pyroclastic flow, which was mostly channelled; in this particular area the ignimbrite corresponds to a homogeneous, moderately welded deposit, consisting of flattened pumices in an abundant ashy matrix with a relatively low lithic fragment content. In intermediate zones significant changes occur in the steepness of the slope and, although still channelled, here the pyroclastic flow was influenced by hydraulic jumps. In this area, two different units can be clearly distinguished in the ignimbrite: the lower unit is composed of a lithic‐rich ground‐layer deposit that formed at the turbulent, highly concentrated head of the flow; the upper unit consists of a well welded pumice‐rich deposit that occasionally reveals a basal layer formed by shearing with the lower part. This division into two units is maintained as far as distal areas near the present‐day coastline, where the slope is very gentle or null and the ignimbrite is not channelled. The ground layer is not found in distal areas. The ignimbrite here only consists of the upper unit, which is occasionally repeated due to a surging process provoked by the lower flow speed, as the pyroclastic flow spread out of the channelled zone. A theoretical model on how topography controlled the deposition of the Arico ignimbrite is derived by interpreting the observed lithological and sedimentological variations in terms of changes in topography and bedrock morphology. This new model is of general applicability and will help to explain other deposits of similar characteristics.     

Tree growth response to the 1913 eruption of Volcán de Fuego de Colima, Mexico

The impact of volcanic eruptions on forest ecosystems can be investigated using dendrochronological records. While long-range effects are usually mediated by decreased air temperatures, resulting in frost rings or reduced maximum latewood density, local effects include abrupt suppression of radial growth, occasionally followed by greater than normal growth rates. Annual rings in Mexican mountain pine (Pinus hartwegii Lindl.) on Nevado de Colima, at the western end of the Mexican Neovolcanic Belt, indicate extremely low growth in 1913 and 1914, following the January 1913 Plinian eruption of Volcán de Fuego, 7.7 km to the south. That event, which is listed among the largest explosive eruptions since A.D. 1500, produced ashflow deposits up to 40 m thick and blanketed our study area on Nevado de Colima with a tephra fallout 15–30 cm deep. Radial growth reduction in 1913–14 was ≥30% in 73% of the sampled trees. We geostatistically investigated the ecological impact of the eruption by mapping the decrease in xylem increment and found no evidence of a spatial structure in growth reduction. Little information has been available to date on forest species as biological archives of past environments in the North American tropics, yet this historical case study suggests that treeline tropical sites hold valuable records of prehistoric phenomena, including volcanic eruptions.     

A comparison of sediment microbial communities associated with<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phragmites australis</Emphasis> and<Emphasis Type="Italic">Spartina alterniflora</Emphasis> in two brackish wetlands of New Jersey

The extensive spread ofPhragmites australis throughout brackish marshes on the East Coast of the United States is a major factor governing management and restoration decisions because it is assumed that biogeochemical functions are altered by the invasion. Microbial activity is important in providing wetland biogeochemical functions such as carbon and nitrogen cycling, but there is little known about sediment microbial communities inPhragmites marshes. Microbial populations associated with invasivePhragmites vegetation and with native salt marsh cordgrass,Spartina alterniflora, may differ in the relative abundance of microbial taxa (community structure) and in the ability of this biota to decompose organic substrates (community biogeochemical function). This study compares sediment microbial communities associated withPhragmites andSpartina vegetation in an undisturbed brackish marsh near Tuckerton, New Jersey (MUL), and in a brackish marsh in the anthropogenically affected Hackensack meadowlands (SMC). We use phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis and enzymataic activity to profile sediment microbial communities associated with both plants in each site. Sediment analyses include bulk density, total organic matter, and root biomass. PLFA profiles indicate that the microbial communities differ between sites with the undisturbed site exhibiting greater fatty acid richness (62 PLFA recovered from MUL versus 38 from SMC). Activity of the 5 enzymes analyzed (β-glucosidase, acid phosphatase, chitobiase, and 2 oxidases) was higher in the undisturbed site. Differences between vegetation species as measured by Principal Components Analysis were significantly greater at the undisturbed MUL site than at SMC, and patterns of enzyme activity and PLFAs did not correspond to patterns of root biomass. We suggest that in natural wetland sediments, macrophyte rhizosphere effects influence the community composition of sediment microbial populations. Physical and chemical site disturbances may impose limits on these rhizosphere effects, decreasing sediment microbial diversity and potentially, microbial biogeochemical functions.     

Objective probabilities about future climate are a matter of opinion

In this paper, the unfeasibility of producing “objective” probabilistic climate change scenarios is discussed. Realizing that the knowledge of “true” probabilities of the different scenarios and temperature changes is unachievable, the objective must be to find the probabilities that are the most consistent with what our state of knowledge and expert judgment are. Therefore, subjective information plays, and should play, a crucial role. A new methodology, based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy, is proposed for constructing probabilistic climate change scenarios when only partial information is available. The objective is to produce relevant information for decision-making according to different agents’ judgment and subjective beliefs. These estimates have desirable properties such as: they are the least biased estimate possible on the available information; maximize the uncertainty (entropy) subject to the partial information that is given; The maximum entropy distribution assigns a positive probability to every event that is not excluded by the given information; no possibility is ignored. The probabilities obtained in this manner are the best predictions possible with the state of knowledge and subjective information that is available. This methodology allows distinguishing between reckless and cautious positions regarding the climate change threat.     

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries: revisiting the assumptions

The United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), at its thirteenth meeting in 2005 (COP-11), agreed to start a work program to explore a range of policy approaches and positive incentives for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). This process was further encouraged in the 2007 COP-13 with the explicit consideration of REDD activities as a means to enhance mitigation action by developing countries in the future. This paper outlines the context of this ongoing political process by reviewing the science indicating that land-use change is a key contributor of greenhouse emissions globally and the assumptions that REDD activities may be competitive—in terms of cost effectiveness—in comparison to other mitigation options. The paper then examines REDD proposals submitted by Parties before COP-13 and identifies key economic, technological, methodological and institutional challenges associated with their implementation. These proposals are discussed in the light of major drivers of deforestation and ongoing efforts to address deforestation. This reveals another set of challenges which, if not taken into account, may undermine REDD effectiveness. The paper aims to aid the policy process and contribute to the best possible design of a REDD framework under the future climate regime.     

Formic and acetic acids in atmospheric condensate in Wilmington,North Carolina

Formic and acetic acids occurred in atmospheric condensate with concentrations similar to rainwater collected in Wilmington, North Carolina, during the sampling period from June to October of 1990. Atmospheric concentrations of these acids (calculated from the condensate concentrations) were higher in continental versus maritime air masses. Concentrations of formic and acetic acids were correlated with each other in both condensate and air. Traffic was a source of acetic acid and of bisulfite to atmospheric condensate in this study.     

Combining climate with other influential factors for modelling the impact of climate change on species distribution

We tested two approaches to forecast species distributions while balancing the impact of climate change against the inertia promoted by other influential factors that have been forecast as not changing. Given that mountain species are presumed to be more at risk due to climate warming, we selected an amphibian, a reptile, a bird, and a mammal species present in the Spanish mountains, to model their distributional response to climate change during this century. The climatic forecasts were made according to the general circulation models CGCM2 and ECHAM4 and to the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. We modelled the response of the species to spatial, topographic, human, and climatic variables separately. In our first approach, we compared each of these single-factor models using the Akaike Information Criterion, and produced a combined model weighting each factor (spatial, topographic, human, and climatic) according to Akaike weights. This procedure overestimated the best model, and the other factors were neglected in the combined model output. In our second approach, we produced a combined model using stepwise selection of the variables previously selected within each factor. In this way every factor was effectively represented in the combined explanatory model of the distributional response of the species to environmental conditions. This enabled the construction of models that combined climate with the other explanatory factors, to be later extrapolated to the future by replacing current climatic and human values with those expected from each emission and socio-economic scenario, while preserving spatial and topographic variables in the model.     

Climate stability and the development of agricultural societies

Although Modern Man had developed long before the migration from Africa began ～ 55,000 years ago no agricultural societies developed until about ～ 10,000 years ago. In the next 5,000 years agricultures developed independently in at least six regions of the world. It is virtually certain that it was not a chance occurrence that so many new agricultures appeared in the same 5,000 years. What inhibited agriculture world wide for 44,000 years and what changed ～ 10,000 years ago? Here we suggest that a major factor influencing the development of agricultural societies was climate stability. From the experience of four cultures we estimate that the development of agriculture needed ～ 2,000 years of climate free from significant climate variations on time scales of a few centuries. Using the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique specifically designed to exhibit the time history of the amplitude of variations in non-stationary time series such as climate proxy records, we find that between 50,000 years ago and the termination of the Younger Dryas ～ 11,600 years ago there was probably no time span as long as 2,000 years that was free of relatively large century scale variations. Furthermore variations on these time scales appear to have been relatively small since the Younger Dryas (YD) ended, supporting our proposition concerning the importance of climate stability in the history of human culture.     

Photobleaching of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in rainwater

Significant photodegradation of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in rainwater was observed after exposure to simulated sunlight. Fluorescence excitation emission spectra (EEMS) of precipitation revealed the presence of four major peaks all of which degraded upon photolysis with the greatest loss in the region characteristic of marine CDOM. Photobleaching of absorbance also occurred in the wavelength region between 250 and 375 nm with the greatest loss of absorbance in the upper end of the UV-A region near 275 nm. There was a strong positive correlation between absorbance loss and total integrated fluorescence loss suggesting these optical properties and the degree to which they are photobleached in rainwater are directly related. The quantum yield of CDOM photodegradation in rainwater decreased dramatically with increasing wavelength and decreasing energy of incoming radiation with the average quantum yield at 325 nm approximately an order of magnitude greater than at 460 nm. The similarity of photolytic response between rainwater and Cape Fear estuarine CDOM indicates that some fraction of the compounds that make up rainwater CDOM may be derived from surface sources and/or that the processes that produce or modify humic-like substances in the atmosphere result in similar types of compounds as non-atmospheric processes.     

An Intercomparison of Large-Eddy Simulations of the Stable Boundary Layer

Results are presented from the first intercomparison of large-eddy simulation (LES) models for the stable boundary layer (SBL), as part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study initiative. A moderately stable case is used, based on Arctic observations. All models produce successful simulations, in as much as they generate resolved turbulence and reflect many of the results from local scaling theory and observations. Simulations performed at 1-m and 2-m resolution show only small changes in the mean profiles compared to coarser resolutions. Also, sensitivity to subgrid models for individual models highlights their importance in SBL simulation at moderate resolution (6.25 m). Stability functions are derived from the LES using typical mixing lengths used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models. The functions have smaller values than those used in NWP. There is also support for the use of K-profile similarity in parametrizations. Thus, the results provide improved understanding and motivate future developments of the parametrization of the SBL.