Targeting European R&D for accidental marine pollution

Accidental marine pollution can have major ecological and economic consequences at national and trans-national levels, and there is a need to achieve a better integration of science into actual decision-making systems to support prevention measures, response systems and management activities.. Effective linking mechanisms between R&D and end-users/policy stakeholders are required to ensure the relevance of R&D, effective uptake of R&D outputs, and suitable policy development. Different issues and barriers to effectively link accidental marine pollution R&D effort to end-users concerns and needs and to develop a trans-national strategic approach are identified, analysed, and further developed into recommendations.     

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Case of Study of Coffee Production in Veracruz, Mexico

This paper explores the relation between coffee production and climatic and economic variables in Veracruz in order to estimate the potential impacts of climate change. For this purpose, an econometric model is developed in terms of those variables. The model is validated by means of statistical analysis, and then used to project coffee production under different climatic conditions. Climate change scenarios are produced considering that the observed trends of climate variables will continue to prevail until the year 2020. An approach for constructing simple probability scenarios for future climate variability is presented and used to assess possible impacts of climate change beyond what is expected from changes in mean values. The model shows that temperature is the most relevant climatic factor for coffee production, since production responds significantly to seasonal temperature patterns. The results for the projected climate change conditions for year 2020 indicate that coffee production might not be economically viable for producers, since the model indicates a reduction of 34% of the current production. Although different economic variables (the state and international coffee prices, a producer price index for raw materials for coffee benefit, the national and the USA coffee stocks) were considered as potentially relevant, our model suggests that the state real minimum wage could be regarded as the most important economic variable. Real minimum wage is interpreted here as a proxy for the price of labor employed for coffee production. This activity in Mexico is very labor intensive representing up to 80% of coffee production costs. As expected, increments in the price of such an important production factor increase production costs and have strong negative effects on production. Different assumptions on how real minimum wage could evolve for the year 2020 are considered for developing future production scenarios.     

Changes in European temperature extremes can be predicted from changes in PDF central statistics

Although uncertainties are still large, many potentially dangerous effects have already been identified concerning the impacts of global warming on human societies. For example, the record-breaking 2003 summer heat wave in Europe has given a glimpse of possible future European climate conditions. Here we use an ensemble of regional climate simulations for the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries over Europe to show that frequency, length and intensity changes in warm and cold temperature extremes can be derived to a close approximation from the knowledge of changes in three central statistics, the mean, standard deviation and skewness of the Probability Distribution Function, for which current climate models are better suited. In particular, the effect of the skewness parameter appears to be crucial, especially in the case of cold extremes, since it mostly explains the relative warming of these events compared to the whole distribution. An application of this finding is that the future impacts of extreme heat waves and cold spells on non-climatological variables (e.g., mortality) can be estimated to a first-order approximation from observed time series of daily temperature transformed in order to account for simulated changes in these three statistics.     

A multisource scheme based on NWP and MSG data to correct non-precipitating weather radar echoes

Weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) are one of the usual tools to monitor rainfall intensity remotely by forecasters on duty or by automatic systems such as hydrological models. Derivation of radar QPE requires a set of robust quality control procedures to address a number of different factors. In particular, significant departures from the standard temperature and moisture atmospheric vertical profiles may increase dramatically the refraction of the radar beam. This anomalous propagation (AP or anaprop) of the microwave radar energy may therefore increase the number of spurious echoes due to ground clutter and contribute, with non-realistic rainfall, to the estimated precipitation field. Based on previous experience of geostationary satellite imagery usage to depict cloud-free areas in precipitation analysis systems, a methodology to incorporate Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) observations and NWP data in the quality control of weather radar QPE was implemented considering two different algorithms. They were validated with two different verification data sets, built with manually edited radar data and rain gauge observations using HKS, PC and FAR scores. The evaluation of the scores was performed for weak (<15 dBZ), stronger and all echoes and for day, night and day and night conditions. One of the methods dealing with weak echoes at night improved PC from 80 to 97% and decreased FAR from 0.32 to 0.19. The results obtained indicate that the technique shows potential for operational application complementing other existing methodologies designed to improve the quality of weather radar precipitation estimates.     

A rediscovered 114-foot Lepidodendron from Bolton,Lancashire

Sixteen specimens of known heights from a Lepidodendron trunk, about 34·5 m long, are described in detail. The surface features show upward change from fissured bark to well defined leaf cushions. These features are discussed in relation to growth patterns in arborescent lycopods.     

Using hyperspectral imagery to predict post-wildfire soil water repellency

A principal task of evaluating large wildfires is to assess fire's effect on the soil in order to predict the potential watershed response. Two types of soil water repellency tests, the water drop penetration time (WDPT) test and the mini-disk infiltrometer (MDI) test, were performed after the Hayman Fire in Colorado, in the summer of 2002 to assess the infiltration potential of the soil. Remotely sensed hyperspectral imagery was also collected to map post-wildfire ground cover and soil condition. Detailed ground cover measurements were collected to validate the remotely sensed imagery and to examine the relationship between ground cover and soil water repellency. Percent ash cover measured on the ground was significantly correlated to WDPT (r = 0.42; p-value < 0.0001), and the MDI test (r = − 0.37; p-value < 0.0001). A Mixture Tuned Matched Filter (MTMF) spectral unmixing algorithm was applied to the hyperspectral imagery, which produced fractional cover maps of ash, soil, and scorched and green vegetation. The remotely sensed ash image had significant correlations to the water repellency tests, WDPT (r = 0.24; p-value = 0.001), and the MDI test (r = − 0.21; p-value = 0.005). An iterative threshold analysis was also applied to the ash and water repellency data to evaluate the relationship at increasingly higher levels of ash cover. Regression analysis between the means of grouped data: MDI time vs. ash cover data (R² =0.75) and vs. Ash MTMF scores (R² = 0.63) yielded significantly stronger relationships. From these results we found on-the-ground ash cover greater than 49% and remotely sensed ash cover greater than 33% to be indicative of strongly water repellent soils. Combining these results with geostatistical analyses indicated a spatial autocorrelation range of 15 to 40 m. Image pixels with high ash cover (> 33%), including pixels within 15 m of these pixel patches, were used to create a likelihood map of soil water repellency. This map is a good indicator of areas where soil experienced severe fire effects—areas that likely have strong water repellent soil conditions and higher potential for post-fire erosion.     

Exploring suspended sediment delivery dynamics of two Mediterranean nested catchments

This paper investigates suspended sediment transport and dynamics of two nested agricultural lowland Mediterranean catchments with a difference of two orders of magnitude in the surface area (i.e., 1 and 264 km²). The effects of the drainage catchment area over the specific suspended sediment yield are assessed by using the nested approach over various timeframes. A detailed analysis of the rainfall–runoff–sediment transport relationships during the 2‐year study period shows that the hydrological and sedimentological responses were extremely variable for both catchments. Very low or no correlations were observed between the rainfall intensity and the selected hydrological variables and sediment loads. However, remarkable or high correlations were obtained between the rainfall intensity and the maximum and average suspended sediment concentrations, indicating that rainfall per unit time has little control on the hydrological response, but that, simultaneously, its high‐erosive power triggers sediment production, increasing the sedimentary response of the catchments. This study also illustrates how sediment is mainly transported during floods, producing predominantly clockwise hysteretic loops. Moreover, the small headwater catchment exerts a reduced (or even negligible) effect over the hydro‐sedimentary response of the larger downstream catchment, caused by the reduced sediment availability in a landscape with an inherent disconnection of the sediment pathways.     

Remarkable variability in dyke features at the Vicuña Pampa Volcanic Complex,Southern Central Andes

Dykes at the Vicuña Pampa Volcanic Complex, which are mostly basaltic (trachy)‐andesite and (trachy)‐andesite, are exposed at the base and along the walls of a large depression resulting from intense degradation. Dykes intruding stiff layers (lavas, plugs and necks) are thin, mostly dip >60° and have coherent textures, whereas dykes intruding more compliant materials (breccias and conglomerates) tend to be thicker, have lower dips and have coherent, brecciated or mixed textures (coherent and brecciated textural domains in a single or compound dyke). Single dykes with brecciated and mixed textures are only found intruding near‐surface units. Dykes with mixed textures always have sharp contacts between domains. Dykes with sinuous domain contacts and enclaves of one domain inside the other are interpreted as resulting from dyke arrest, partial cooling and reinjection of new magma. Dykes with straight domain contacts are considered to be compound dykes, with a new dyke intruding along the margins of an older, solidified one.     

Seasonal changes in the daily emission rates of terpenes by Quercus ilex and the atmospheric concentrations of terpenes in the natural park of Montseny, NE Spain

We studied the daily patterns in the rates of terpene emissions by the montane holm oak, Quercus ilex, in three typical days of winter and three typical days of summer in Montseny, a natural park near Barcelona, and related them to the air concentrations of terpenes, ozone and NO₂. Terpene emission rates were about 10 times higher in summer than in winter. Emissions virtually stopped in the dark. In both seasons, rates of terpene emissions were well correlated with light, air temperature and relative humidity. Rates of emissions were also correlated with stomatal conductance and the rates of transpiration and photosynthesis. Almost all the individual terpenes identified followed the same pattern as total terpenes. The most abundant terpene was ??-pinene, followed by sabinene + ??-pinene, limonene, myrcene, camphene and ??-phellandrene. Atmospheric terpene concentrations were also about 10 times higher in summer than in winter. A significant diurnal pattern with maxima at midday was observed, especially in summer. The increase by one order of magnitude in the concentrations of these volatile isoprenoids highlights the importance of local biogenic summer emissions in these Mediterranean forested areas which also receive polluted air masses from nearby or distant anthropic sources. Atmospheric concentrations of O₃ and NO₂ were also significantly higher in summer and at midday hours. In both seasons, concentrations of O₃ were significantly correlated with concentrations of terpenes and NO₂ in the air and with rates of terpene emission.