Cycles in the scaling properties of length-of-day variations

Variations in the length-of-day (LOD) reflect the effects of several mechanisms in the Earth's rotation dynamics, including Earth–Sun and Earth–Moon line-up, geomagnetic effects and gravitational changes. Several studies showed that signatures of cycles occurring over a wide range of time scales are present in the LOD variations. The present work uses a fractal scaling study based on detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to study persistence of LOD variations and to provide insights in the different cycling mechanisms. The results showed that that the LOD variations are persistent over a wide range of time scales, meaning that an increment (resp., decrement) is more likely to be followed by an increment (resp., decrement). The temporal variation of the scaling exponent obtained from the DFA showed that several cycles already reported from the direct LOD variations analysis are inherited by the scaling properties. Inter-annual cycles, including 4.3 and 18.6 years cycles, are linked to the variations of the stochastic dynamics of LOD fluctuations. In this way, the 18.6 years cycle attains a period where variations are mostly affected by white noise effects, reducing the predictability of the LOD anomalies. The results are discussed in terms of the different lunar tidal and core–mantle mechanisms and related to recent results in the literature.     

Realisation of a fully‐deterministic microlensing observing strategy for inferring planet populations

Within less than 15 years, the count of known planets orbiting stars other than the Sun has risen from none to more than 400 with detections arising from four successfully applied techniques: Doppler‐wobbles, planetary transits, gravitational microlensing, and direct imaging. While the hunt for twin Earths is on, a statistically well‐defined sample of the population of planets in all their variety is required for probing models of planet formation and orbital evolution so that the origin of planets that harbour life, like and including ours, can be understood. Given the different characteristics of the detection techniques, a complete picture can only arise from a combination of their respective results. Microlensing observations are well‐suited to reveal statistical properties of the population of planets orbiting stars in either the Galactic disk or bulge from microlensing observations, but a mandatory requirement is the adoption of strictly‐deterministic criteria for selecting targets and identifying signals. Here, we describe a fully‐deterministic strategy realised by means of the ARTEMiS (Automated Robotic Terrestrial Exoplanet Microlensing Search) system at the Danish 1.54‐m telescope at ESO La Silla between June and August 2008 as part of the MiNDSTEp (Microlensing Network for the Detection of Small Terrestrial Exoplanets) campaign, making use of immediate feedback on suspected anomalies recognized by the SIGNALMEN anomaly detector. We demonstrate for the first time the feasibility of such an approach, and thereby the readiness for studying planet populations down to Earth mass and even below, with ground‐based observations. While the quality of the real‐time photometry is a crucial factor on the efficiency of the campaign, an impairment of the target selection by data of bad quality can be successfully avoided. With a smaller slew time, smaller dead time, and higher through‐put, modern robotic telescopes could significantly outperform the 1.54‐m Danish, whereas lucky‐imaging cameras could set new standards for high‐precision follow‐up monitoring of microlensing events (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Long-term Field Observations on Seasonality in Chlorophyll-<Emphasis Type="Italic">a</Emphasis> Concentrations in a Shallow Coastal Marine Ecosystem,the Wadden Sea

Analyses of long-term field observations (1974–2007) on chlorophyll-a concentrations in the western Wadden Sea showed no long-term trends in the timing of the wax and wane of phytoplankton spring blooms. There is weak evidence, however, that the height of the autumn bloom has decreased since the early 1990s. This fading of the autumn bloom may have had consequences for the carbon transfer to higher trophic levels, currently hampering primary consumer species that mostly rely on food supply during late summer. Current and other findings suggest a shortening of the growing season due to the fading of the autumn bloom in the Wadden Sea and a lengthening of the growing season due to an advancement of the spring bloom in the North Sea. These regionally different changes in seasonality may have contributed to the coinciding decrease in bivalve filtering capacity in the western Wadden Sea and the large-scale offshore shift of juvenile plaice from the Wadden Sea to the adjacent North Sea.     

Geodynamic and climate controls in the formation of Mio–Pliocene world-class oxidized cobalt and manganese ores in the Katanga province, DR Congo

The Katanga province, Democratic Republic of Congo, hosts world-class cobalt deposits accounting for ~50% of the world reserves. They originated from sediment-hosted stratiform copper and cobalt sulfide deposits within Neoproterozoic metasedimentary rocks. Heterogenite, the main oxidized cobalt mineral, is concentrated as “cobalt caps” along the top of silicified dolomite inselbergs. The supergene cobalt enrichment process is part of a regional process of residual ore formation that also forms world-class “manganese cap” deposits in western Katanga, i.e., the “black earths” that are exploited by both industrial and artisanal mining. Here, we provide constraints on the genesis and the timing of these deposits. Ar–Ar analyses of oxidized Mn ore and in situ U–Pb SIMS measurements of heterogenite yield Mio–Pliocene ages. The Ar–Ar ages suggest a multi-phase process, starting in the Late Miocene (10–5 Ma), when the metal-rich substratum was exposed to the action of meteoric fluids, due to major regional uplift. Further oxidation took place in the Pliocene (3.7–2.3 Ma) and formed most of the observed deposits under humid conditions: Co- and Mn-caps on metal-rich substrata, and coeval Fe laterites on barren areas. These deposits formed prior to the regional shift toward more arid conditions in Central Africa. Arid conditions still prevailed during the Quaternary and resulted in erosion and valley incision, which dismantled the metal-bearing caps and led to ore accumulation in valleys and along foot slopes.     

Validation and evaluation of two multivariate statistical models for predictive shallow landslide susceptibility mapping of the Eastern Pyrenees (Spain)

This paper deals with the quality of two multivariate statistical models based on the Geographical Information System for shallow landslide susceptibility assessment in a test area at La Pobla de Lillet (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain). The quality, which was guaranteed by a rigorous methodology based on a suitable diagnosis, validation, and evaluation of the models, ensured a reliable contrast of the final susceptibility maps. This enables us to transfer the best results to the end user. Landslide susceptibility models were carried out by logistic regression and discriminant analysis of the significant conditioning factors related to the characteristics of the slope and the upslope contributing area captured from the digital elevation model and landslide distribution. The explanatory variables were tested (KS test, principal components and one-way and T-test) to select the most statistically significant ones before being introduced into the logistic and discriminant analyses. Accuracy statistics and the receiver operating characteristic curve used for diagnosis and validation showed similar prediction skills and a good fit to the data with more than 85% of unfailed cells properly classified for the two models. The evaluation of the study area and the correlation function (R ² = 0.83) between the models revealed that the discriminant model overestimated the susceptibility of the most stable zones with respect to the logistic model. Different methods of producing susceptibility maps showed marked differences in matching the models. Substantial spatial agreement (Kappa = 0.741) between binary maps produced by the standard cut-off value descended moderately (Kappa = 0.540) as a result of superimposing maps with five susceptibility levels defined by landslide percentage. Despite the fact that the two statistical models are similar in assessing susceptibility in the study area, the implications for hazard and risk management can be different because of the conservative nature of the discriminant model.     

Absolute magnitude calibration for red clump stars

We combined the (K _s , J?K _s ) data in Laney et al. (Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 419:1637, 2012) with the V apparent magnitudes and trigonometric parallaxes taken from the Hipparcos catalogue and used them to fit the $M_{K_{s}}$ absolute magnitude to a linear polynomial in terms of V?K _s colour. The mean and standard deviation of the absolute magnitude residuals, ?0.001 and 0.195 mag, respectively, estimated for 224 red clump stars in Laney et al. (2012) are (absolutely) smaller than the corresponding ones estimated by the procedure which adopts a mean $M_{K_{s}}=-1.613~\mbox{mag}$ absolute magnitude for all red clump stars, ?0.053 and 0.218 mag, respectively. The statistics estimated by applying the linear equation to the data of 282 red clump stars in Alves (Astrophys. J. 539:732, 2000) are larger, $\Delta M_{K_{s}}=0.209$ and σ=0.524 mag, which can be explained by a different absolute magnitude trend, i.e. condensation along a horizontal distribution.     

Socio-climatic hotspots in Brazil

Brazil suffers yearly from extreme weather and climate events, which can be exacerbated in a warmer climate. Although several studies have analyzed the projections of climate change in Brazil, little attention has been paid to defining the locations that can be most affected, and consequently have a more vulnerable population, in a spatially-explicit form. This study presents a spatial analysis of summarized climate change data and a joint investigation combining these possible climate changes and social vulnerability indicators in Brazil. The Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), which can synthesize a large number of climate model projections, is used for the climate analysis, and the Socio-Climatic Vulnerability Index (SCVI) is proposed to aggregate local population vulnerabilities to the climate change information. The RCCI results show climatic hotspots emerging in Brazil, covering the western portion of the Northeast (NE), northwestern Minas Gerais state and center-western (CW) and northern regions (N), except northeast Pará and Amapá states. The SCVI analysis reveals major socio-climatic hotspots in the NE and several localized hotspots in some of the major Brazilian metropolitan regions, namely Manaus, Belo Horizonte, Brasília, Salvador, Rio de Janeiro and S?o Paulo. The two novelties of this study are a spatially detailed analysis of the RCCI in Brazil and the development of an index that can summarize the large amount of climate model information available today with social vulnerability indicators. Both indices may be important tools for improving the dialogue between climate and social scientists and for communicating climate change to policymakers in a more synthetic and socially relevant form.     

Shift changes and monotonic trends in autocorrelated temperature series over Iran

Temperature data from 29 synoptic stations in Iran for a period of 40?years (1966–2005) were analyzed to test for the existence of monotonic trends and shift changes in the annual, seasonal, and monthly mean air temperature series using the Mann–Kendall and Mann–Whitney tests. The influences of significant lag-1 serial correlation were eliminated from data by the trend-free pre-whitening method prior to the trend analysis. The magnitude of the temperature trends was derived from the Theil–Sen’s slope estimator. It was found that annual mean air temperature increased at 25 out of the 29 stations, of which 17 stations showed significant monotonic trends. The magnitude of the annual mean air temperature trends averagely was (+)0.224°C per decade. Most of the stations with the significant positive monotonic trends had a significant upward shift change. The analysis indicated that the change point year of the significant upward shift changes was 1972 for the whole stations except the coastal ones. Moreover, the strongest monotonic increasing trends and upward shift changes were observed in summer especially in August and September. The spatial analysis of the mean air temperature trends revealed the highest numbers of significant monotonic trends in the big cities of Iran. These findings provide more insights for better understanding of regional temperature behavior in the study area.     

Effects of riparian manipulation on stream communities in small streams: Two case studies

The effects of riparian manipulation in New Zealand are described for two case studies, one a short‐term study of the effects of the removal of riparian vegetation on fish, and the second, a long‐term study of the effect of re‐establishment of riparian vegetation on fish and benthic macro invertebrates. The first case study was an experiment carried out between November 2001 and May 2002. Overhanging bank vegetation and in‐stream wood were removed from short reaches of a small pastoral stream that had intact riparian margins, resulting in a change in stream structure with the formation of shallow uniform runs rather than pool and riffle structures as in unmodified reaches. The removal of bank cover and consequential instream habitat changes reduced inanga (Galaxias maculatus) densities by a factor of four within months of vegetation removal, showing the importance of instream cover and habitat to inanga. Adult longfin eel (Anguilla dieffenbachii) also became less abundant in the cleared reaches, but elvers (Anguilla spp.) became more abundant. In the second case study, pastoral sections in two small streams draining from native forest catchments were restored in 1995/96 by planting riparian vegetation and preventing stock access. After 10 years, the restoration efforts had more than doubled the numbers of giant kokopu (G. argenteus) and redfin bullies (Gobiomorphus huttoni), slightly increased numbers of banded kokopu (G. fasciatus), and decreased shortfin eel (A. australis) numbers by about 40%. The macroinvertebrate communities changed so that they became more similar to those at upstream native forest reference sites. These two case studies show that riparian margins can influence the composition of the fish and macroinvertebrate communities in small streams through the effects on cover, instream habitat and probably water temperature. Riparian restoration was most effective for the fish species that use cover and pool habitat.     

Comparison of Boundary-Layer Profiles and Layer Detection by AMDAR and WTR/RASS at Frankfurt Airport

At Frankfurt airport (EDDF) vertical soundings of the lower atmosphere from two independent sources are available. One of them is a wind and temperature profiler (wind temperature radar and radio acoustic sounding system, WTR/RASS) located at the western end of the main pair of runways. The second source is aircraft meteorological data relay (AMDAR), i.e. measurements operationally collected by approaching and departing aircraft. Together, both offer a rare opportunity to compare the performance of these widely used systems. We use 1 year of continuous data to calculate systematic temperature and wind vector differences between both measurement systems. The differences show a clear season-dependent structure in conjunction with typical inversion heights. Possible causes for this behaviour are discussed. Second, we compare the ability of both systems to identify inversion and wind-shear layers above the airport. AMDAR-detected layers are typically higher than wind profiler detections. The layer base is usually detected with more agreement than the top. The mutual probability of detection of inversions is found to be mostly between 40 and 60%.