European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little Ice Age’

The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe winter of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden warming coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783–early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February–March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The winter of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe.     

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961–1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071–2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N–15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6–8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.     

Climate change,weather variability and corn yield at a higher latitude locale: Southwestern Quebec

Climate change has led to increased temperatures, and simulation models suggest that this should affect crop production in important agricultural regions of the world. Nations at higher latitudes, such as Canada, will be most affected. We studied the relationship between climate variability (temperature and precipitation) and corn yield trends over a period of 33 years for the Monteregie region of south-western Quebec using historical yield and climate records and statistical models. Growing season mean temperature has increased in Monterregie, mainly due to increased September temperature. Precipitation did not show any clear trend over the 33 year period. Yield increased about 118 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ from 1973 to 2005 (under normal weather conditions) due mainly to changes in technology (genetics and management). Two climate variables were strongly associated with corn yield variability: July temperature and May precipitation. These two variables explain more than a half of yield variability associated with climate. In conclusion, July temperatures below normal and May precipitation above normal have negative effects on corn yield, and the growing seasons have warmed, largely due to increases in the September temperature.     

2019年四川长宁MS6.0地震前破裂区内视应力和b值的变化

视应力和b值都可以反映地壳应力变化。当应力增加时,视应力会增加,而b值降低。因此,应力变化将导致视应力和b值之间呈负相关关系,即,根据视应力和b值之间的负相关关系可以研究地壳构造应力的变化。本文利用2000年1月—2019年12月长宁M_S6.0地震破裂区内3.0≤M_L≤3.6地震的视应力和2.0≤M_L≤4.3地震目录,研究了视应力和b值随时间的变化,发现:2013年2月—2017年3月间,视应力呈趋势上升变化,历时约4年,在震前两年时间内,视应力仍维持在较高水平。在视应力呈趋势上升变化期间,b值则呈趋势下降变化。当视应力维持在较高水平时,b值则维持在较低水平。即,长宁M_S6.0地震发生前,破裂区内视应力增加,同时b值下降。这表明,2019年长宁M_S6.0地震发生前破裂区内存在明显的构造应力增加过程,对地震孕育过程的认识和地震预测研究都具有启示意义。      

Onset of scour below pipelines and self-burial

This paper summarizes the results of an experimental study on the onset of scour below and self-burial of pipelines in currents/waves. Pressure was measured on the surface of a slightly buried pipe at two points, one at the upstream side and the other at the downstream side of the pipe, both in the sand bed. The latter enabled the pressure gradient (which drives a seepage flow underneath the pipe) to be calculated. The results indicated that the excessive seepage flow and the resulting piping are the major factor to cause the onset of scour below the pipeline. The onset of scour occurred always locally (but not along the length of the pipeline as a two-dimensional process). The critical condition corresponding to the onset of scour was determined both in the case of currents and in the case of waves. Once the scour breaks out, it will propagate along the length of the pipeline, scour holes being interrupted with stretches of soil (span shoulders) supporting the pipeline. As the span shoulder gets shorter and shorter, more and more weight of the pipeline is exerted on the soil. In this process, a critical point is reached where the bearing capacity of the soil is exceeded (general shear failure). At this point, the pipe begins to sink at the span shoulder (self-burial). It was found that the self-burial depth is governed mainly by the Keulegan–Carpenter number. The time scale of the self-burial process, on the other hand, is governed by the Keulegan–Carpenter number and the Shields parameter. Diagrams are given for the self-burial depth and the time scale of the self-burial process.     

不同温度、羧酸溶液中长石溶解模拟实验

报道了在100℃、140℃下微斜长石在不同羧酸溶液中的溶解实验数据。通过实验表明1)反应温度增高,可增强溶液中阳离子的活性和迁移性,加快长石溶解的反应速率,促进长石的溶解。2)在强酸性条件下,pH值的变化可影响长石的溶解。但在中等酸性条件下,pH值对长石的溶解影响很小。3)羧酸(乙二酸)可不同程度地促进长石溶解,可通过形成乙二酸络合物的形式,增加离子在溶液中的溶解度。但乙酸络合物的作用不明显。长石溶蚀导致岩石孔隙度变大,并且改善孔喉性质。同时,由于乙二酸络合物的存在,增加了Si在溶液中的溶解度,阻止了石英加大和其它成因SiO₂的生成,有利于次生孔隙和原生孔隙的保存。4)长石溶解使溶液中Al的浓度较高,但由于铝-羧酸络合物的亲油性比亲水性强,故有一部分Al被分配到油相中,这也是目前大多数油田水中Al浓度偏低的主要原因。     

An exact solution to the relativistic advance of perihelion: correcting the Einstein approximation

New calculations of the main term of the advance of perihelion for the asteroid Icarus and planet Mercury are discussed. With the help of this author’s previously published formula for the advance, results are then compared to the values given by Einstein’s approximation.     

Bleaching of the post‐IR IRSL signal: new insights for feldspar luminescence dating

Post‐infrared (pIR) stimulated luminescence dating of sedimentary feldspar largely avoids the effects of anomalous fading that affect conventional infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dating. However, optical resetting of pIR signals is more difficult than resetting the conventional IRSL signal, which may undermine the crucial assumption that pIR signals were effectively bleached upon deposition and burial of sediment grains. In this study, we quantify the bleaching properties of several pIR signals on various samples using laboratory‐simulated bleaching in full sunlight and water‐attenuated sunlight. Our data show that bleaching is most efficient under full spectrum conditions for all pIR signals and that pIR signals measured at elevated temperature are increasingly harder to bleach than IR and pIR signals measured at low temperature (e.g. IR at 50°C). All bleaching curves exhibit a very slow and steady decrease, indicating that a fixed un‐bleachable residual level cannot be reached within the 11 days of solar simulator exposure undertaken here. We show that the magnitude of a laboratory‐determined residual dose depends on the adopted bleaching protocol and cannot be used as a proxy for the dose that remains in the sample at the time of burial (remnant dose). Our data emphasize the importance of finding a balance between sufficient signal stability and a minimized contribution of a remnant dose when using pIR procedures for feldspar luminescence dating.     

Evolution of the Kivu Rift,East Africa: interplay among tectonics,sedimentation and magmatism

The seismically and volcanically active Kivu Rift, in the western branch of the East African Rift System, is a type locale for studies of high‐elevation, humid‐climate rift basins, as well as magmatic basin development. Interpretations of offshore multi‐channel seismic (MCS) reflection data, terrestrial radar topography, lake bathymetry and seismicity data recorded on a temporary array provide new insights into the structure, stratigraphy and evolution of the Kivu rift. The Kivu rift is an asymmetric graben controlled on its west side by a ca. 110 km‐long, N‐S striking border fault. The southern basins of the lake and the upper Rusizi river basin are an accommodation zone effectively linking 1470 m‐high Lake Kivu to 770 m‐high Lake Tanganyika. MCS data in the eastern Kivu lake basin reveal a west‐dipping half graben with at least 1.5 km of sedimentary section; most of the ca. 2 km of extension in this sub‐basin is accommodated by the east‐dipping Iwawa normal fault, which bounds an intrabasinal horst. Lake Kivu experienced at least three periods of near desiccation. The two most recent of these approximately correlate to the African Megadrought and Last Glacial Maximum. There was a rapid lake level transgression of at least 400 m in the early Holocene. The line load of the Virunga volcanic chain enhances the fault‐controlled basin subsidence; simple elastic plate models suggest that the line load of the Virunga volcanic chain depresses the basin by more than 1 km, reduces flank uplift locally and broadens the depocentre. Not only do the voluminous magmatism and degassing to the lake pose a hazard to the riparian population, but our studies demonstrate that magmatism has important implications for short‐term processes such as lake levels, inflow and outlets, as well as long term modification of classic half‐graben basin morphology.