A geological record of multiple Pleistocene tsunami inundations in an oceanic island: The case of Maio,Cape Verde

In the Central Atlantic archipelagos – the Canaries, Cape Verde, Madeira and the Azores – tsunami hazard is often regarded as low, when compared with other extreme wave events such as hurricanes and storms. The geological record of many of these islands, however, suggests that tsunami hazard may be underestimated, notwithstanding being lower than in areas adjacent to subduction zones, such as the margins of the Pacific and Indian oceans. Moreover, tsunamis in oceanic islands are generally triggered by local large-scale volcanic flank collapses, for which little is known about their frequency, making it difficult to estimate the probability of a new occurrence. Part of the problem lies in the fact that tsunami deposits are usually difficult to date, and few islands in the world exhibit evidence for repeated tsunami inundation on a protracted timescale. This study reports on the presence of abundant tsunami deposits (conglomerates and sandstones) on Maio Island (Cape Verde) and discusses their stratigraphy, sedimentological characteristics, probable age and tsunamigenic source. Observations indicate that four distinct inundation events of variable magnitude took place during the Pleistocene. One of the tsunami deposits yielded a high-confidence U/Th age of 78·8 ± 0·9 ka, which overlaps within error with the 73 ± 7 ka age proposed for Fogo volcano's flank collapse, an event known to have had a significant tsunami impact on nearby Santiago Island. This shows that the Fogo tsunami also impacted Maio, resulting in runups in excess of 60 m above coeval sea-level at ca 120 km from the source. Two older deposits, possibly linked to recurrent flank collapses of the Tope de Coroa volcano in Santo Antão Island, yielded lower-confidence ages of 479 to 390 ka and 360 to 304 ka. A younger deposit (<78 ka) remains undated. In summary, the geological record of Maio exhibits well-preserved evidence of repeated tsunami inundation, reinforcing the notion that tsunami hazard is not so low at volcanic archipelagos featuring prominent and highly-active volcanoes such as in Cape Verde.     

Depositional history of the Miocene Lake Sinj (Dinaride Lake System,Croatia): a long-lived hard-water lake in a pull-apart tectonic setting

Early Miocene transpressional wrenching yielded a series of NW–SE-elongated pull-apart basins in the Dinarides of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. They accommodated a huge lake system that gave rise to spectacular endemic mollusk radiation. Lake Sinj, moderately sized at 342 km², flooded the south-westernmost basin of this system. Due to the karstic environment, the hard-water, alkaline, long-lived lake developed a sediment infill with an average thickness of 370 m, dominated by authigenic limestone. The studied section represents the upper third of the basinal infill and provides detailed insights into the critical period of the lake and of the basinal evolution during the final stages of its filling. It comprises two large-scale, shallowing-upward cycles, both starting with fossil-poor limestones, gradually passing into coal-bearing carbonate rocks and coal seams. The fossil-poor intervals are interpreted as phases of repetitive acidification events due to changing lake level, which induced periodic drying and flooding of the uppermost littoral zone inhabited by starfruit (Damasonium) meadows. The flooding of the aerated, limy mud plain introduced H+ ions from organic-matter decay reactions into the shallow lake. This decreased its pH level, with catastrophic consequences for its biota. The ecosystem then stabilized during the orbitally-forced, dry climate phases. Based on the mollusk record, streams still influenced the marginal lake environment and rich organic-matter production created swamps and mires. The onset of mollusk radiation in the section correlates with stabilized lake alkalinity, as indicated by the disappearance of starfruits, ongoing authigenic carbonate production and by coal seams representing textbook examples for coal formation in alkaline environments. The inferred basinal setting fits well with the pull-apart basin model, pointing to the presence of an extended shallow ramp in front of a steep, fault-induced hillside of the hinterland.     

Turbidity limits gas exchange in a large macrotidal estuary

In estuaries, the gas transfer velocity (k) is driven by a combination of two major physical drivers, wind and water current. The k values for CO₂ in the macrotidal Gironde Estuary were obtained from 159 simultaneous pCO₂ and floating chamber flux measurements. Values of k increased with wind speed and were significantly greater when water currents and wind were in opposing directions. At low wind speeds (<1 m s⁻¹), k increased with water current velocities (0–1.5 m s⁻¹) following an exponential trend. The latter was a good proxy for the Y-intercept in a generic equation for k versus wind speed in estuaries. We also found that, in this turbid estuary, k was significantly lower at high turbidity. The presence of suspended material in great concentrations (TSS > 0.2 g L⁻¹) had a significant role in attenuating turbulence and therefore gas exchange. This result has important consequences for modeling water oxygenation in estuarine turbidity maxima. For seven low turbidity estuaries previously described in the literature, the slope of the linear regression between k and wind speed correlates very well with the estuary surface area due to a fetch effect. In the Gironde Estuary, this slope follows the same trend at low turbidity (TSS < 0.2 g L⁻¹), but is on average significantly lower than in other large estuaries and decreases linearly with the TSS concentration. A new generic equation for estuaries is proposed that gives k as a function of water current velocity, wind speed, estuarine surface area and TSS concentration.     

Factors determining subsidence in urbanized floodplains: evidence from MT‐InSAR in Seville (southern Spain)

Major rivers have traditionally been linked with important human settlements throughout history. The growth of cities over recent river deposits makes necessary the use of multidisciplinary approaches to characterize the evolution of drainage networks in urbanized areas. Since under‐consolidated fluvial sediments are especially sensitive to compaction, their spatial distribution, thickness, and mechanical behavior must be studied. Here, we report on subsidence in the city of Seville (Southern Spain) between 2003 and 2010, through the analysis of the results obtained with the Multi‐Temporal InSAR (MT‐InSAR) technique. In addition, the temporal evolution of the subsidence is correlated with the rainfall, the river water column and the piezometric level. Finally, we characterize the geotechnical parameters of the fluvial sediments and calculate the theoretical settlement in the most representative sectors. Deformation maps clearly indicate that the spatial extent of subsidence is controlled by the distribution of under‐consolidated fine‐grained fluvial sediments at heights comprised in the range of river level variation. This is clearly evident at the western margin of the river and the surroundings of its tributaries, and differs from rainfall results as consequence of the anthropic regulation of the river. On the other hand, this influence is not detected at the eastern margin due to the shallow presence of coarse‐grain consolidated sediments of different terrace levels. The derived results prove valuable for implementing urban planning strategies, and the InSAR technique can therefore be considered as a complementary tool to help unravel the subsidence tendency of cities located over under‐consolidated fluvial deposits. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Speleothems in a north Cuban cave register sea‐level changes and Pleistocene uplift rates

A flight of marine terraces along the Cuban coast records Quaternary sea‐level highstands and a general slowly uplifting trend during the Pleistocene. U/Th dating of these limestone terraces is difficult because fossil reef corals have been affected by open system conditions. Terrace ages are thus often based on geological and geomorphological observations. In contrast, the minimum age of the terraces can be constrained by dating speleothems from coastal mixing (flank margin) caves formed during past sea‐level highstands and carving the marine limestones. Speleothems in Santa Catalina Cave have ages >360 ka and show various cycles of subaerial–subaqueous corrosion and speleothem growth. This suggests that the cave was carved during the MIS 11 sea‐level highstand or earlier. Some stalagmites grew during MIS 11 through MIS 8 and were submerged twice, once at the end of MIS 11 and then during MIS 9. Phreatic overgrowths (POS) covering the speleothems suggest anchialine conditions in the cave during MIS 5e. Their altitude at 16 m above present sea level indicates a late Pleistocene uplift rate of <0.1 mm/ka, but modelling also shows uplift to have been insignificant over a long timespan during the middle Pleistocene since the cave was carved. Our study shows that some flank margin caves in the region of Matanzas are older than commonly believed (i.e. MIS 11 rather than MIS 5). These caves not only can be preserved but are good markers of interglacial sea‐level highstands, more reliable than marine abrasion surfaces. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A hidden Markov model for earthquake prediction

Earthquake occurrence is well-known to be associated with structural changes in underground dynamics, such as stress level and strength of electromagnetic signals. While the causation between earthquake occurrence and underground dynamics remains elusive, the modeling of changes in underground dynamics can provide insights on earthquake occurrence. However, underground dynamics are usually difficult to measure accurately or even unobservable. In order to model and examine the effect of the changes in unobservable underground dynamics on earthquake occurrence, we propose a novel model for earthquake prediction by introducing a latent Markov process to describe the underground dynamics. In particular, the model is capable of predicting the change-in-state of the hidden Markov chain, and thus can predict the time and magnitude of future earthquake occurrences simultaneously. Simulation studies and applications on a real earthquake dataset indicate that the proposed model successfully predicts future earthquake occurrences. Theoretical results, including the stationarity and ergodicity of the proposed model, as well as consistency and asymptotic normality of model parameter estimation, are provided.     

Selection of the data time interval for the prediction of maximum ozone concentrations

This paper highlights the problem of step-length selection for the one-step-ahead prediction of ozone called the data time interval. This is done using a case study-based comparison of two approaches for predicting the maximum daily values of tropospheric ozone. The first approach is the 1-day-ahead prediction and the second is the prediction of the maximum values based on a multi-step-ahead iteration of 1-h predictions. Gaussian process modelling is utilised for this comparison. In particular, evolving Gaussian-process models are used that update on-line with the incoming measurement data. These sorts of models have been successfully used in the past for the prediction of ozone pollution. This paper contributes an assessment of the way that the maximum ozone values are predicted. A comparison of the daily maximum ozone values forecasted by a model based on 1-day-ahead predictions with those obtained by iterated 1-h-ahead predictions of the ozone with predictions at predetermined hours of the day is given. The forecast results are in favour of the on-line model based on hourly predictions when approaching closer to the real maximum values of ozone, and in favour of the daily predictions when they are made on a daily basis.     

The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).