末次盛冰期以来全球湿润状况的地质证据──全球古湖泊数据库及其湖水位变化的大尺度时空分析

介绍了正在建设中的全球湖泊数据库的情况，以及该数据库的水位资料所反映的晚更新世末期以来全球湿润状况的变化。通过大尺度湖水位变化的时空分析，结果显示当今湖泊水位状态较历史时期而言，位于低纬干旱或半干旱地区的湖泊水位较低，而中纬及高纬湿润地区的湖泊水位较高。自末次冰盛期以来，北美大陆中南部地区湖泊水位自高至低，反映出该地区气候条件由湿变干，至早、中全新世达最干旱。而在非洲及南亚季风地区，冷期偏干，暖期偏湿。特别是在早、中全新世的温暖时期，为历史上最湿润时期。北半球中纬度地带的气候干湿变化与北半球冰盖的存在及其消融导致的西风带的南北摆动有关；而北半球季风区在早、中全新世出现的高潮面与北半球夏季辐射的增加有密切联系。     

MODELING STUDY ON SEDIMENTATION CONFIGURATION IN FRONT OF THE DAM AND IN THE PRESSURE CONDUIT OF BOTTOM OUTLETS BY FLUME EXPERIMENT

I.INTRODUCTIONReseri,oirsonoverloadedriverswillreachthestateofrelativeequilibriumwithcontinuousdevelopmentofsedimentation.Insuchcase,thereisdePOsitinfrontofthedam.Thereforethesiltpressureonthedambodyisconsiderablylarge.Sedimentationelevationinfrontofthedamisoneofthefactorsofcalculatingthesiltpressure.Inaddition,tokeeplong-termworkingstorageinreservoif,itisnecessarytoinstallbottomoutlets.Asthereisapressureconduitinfrontoftheoperatinggateofthebottomoutlet,thesedimelltenteredtheconduitwill…     

Non-linear climate feedback analysis in an atmospheric general circulation model

 A method is described for evaluating the ‘partial derivatives’ of globally averaged top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation changes with respect to basic climate model physical parameters. This method is used to analyse feedbacks in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre general circulation model. The parameters considered are surface temperature, water vapour, lapse rate and cloud cover. The climate forcing which produces the changes is a globally uniform sea surface temperature (SST) perturbation. The first and second order differentials of model parameters with respect to the forcing (i.e. SST changes) are estimated from quadratic least square fitting. Except for total cloud cover, variables are found to be strong functions of global SST. Strongly non-linear variations of lapse rate and high cloud amount and height appear to relate to the non-linear response in penetrative convection. Globally averaged TOA radiation differentials with respect to model parameters are also evaluated. With the exception of total cloud contributions, a high correlation is generally found to exist, on the global mean level, between TOA radiation and the respective parameter perturbations. The largest non-linear terms contributing to radiative changes are those due to lapse rate and high cloud. The contributions of linear and non-linear terms to the overall radiative response from a 4 K SST perturbation are assessed. Significant non-linear responses are found to be associated with lapse rate, water vapour and cloud changes. Although the exact magnitude of these responses is likely to be a function of the particular model as well as the imposed SST perturbation pattern, the present experiments flag these as processes which cannot properly be understood from linear theory in the evaluation of climate change sensitivity. Received: 16 January 1997/Accepted: 9 May 1997     

On the Spatial Distribution and Seasonal Variation of Lower-Troposphere Ozone over Europe

Surface ozone data from 25 Europeanlow-altitude sites and mountain sites located between79°N and 28°N were studied. The analysiscovered the time period March 1989–February 1993.Average summer and winter O₃ concentrations inthe boundary layer over the continent gave rise togradients that were strongest in the north-west tosouth-east direction and west-east direction, respectively. WintertimeO₃ ranged from 19 to 27 ppbover the continent, compared to about 32 ppb at thewestern border, while for summer the continentalO₃ values ranged between 39 and 56 ppb and theoceanic mixing ratios were around 37 ppb. In the lowerfree troposphere average wintertime O₃ mixingratios were around 38 ppb, with only an 8 ppbdifference between 28°N and 79°N. For summerthe average O₃ levels decreased from about 55 ppbover Central Europe to 32 ppb at 79°N. Inaddition, O₃ and O_x(= O₃ + NO₂)in polluted and clean air were compared. Theamplitudes of the seasonal ozone variations increasedin the north-west to south-east direction, while thetime of the annual maximum was shifted from spring (atthe northerly sites) to late summer (at sites inAustria and Hungary), which reflected the contributionof photochemical ozone production in the lower partsof the troposphere.     

RECOGNISING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUANTIFICATION OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE

A widely used method of evaluating effects of climate change on flow regime is to perturb the climate inputs to a rainfall–runoff model and examine the effect on a statistic of the modelled flows. Such studies require four elements: a method of perturbing the climate, a rainfall–runoff model, a study catchment and a flow index. In practice the direction and magnitude of the estimated effects depend on each of the four elements, leading to concern over the usefulness and generality of the results. To investigate these uncertainties two climate scenarios and eight climate sensitivity tests have been applied to three UK catchments using two conceptual rainfall–runoff models in order to quantify effects of climate change on three flow indices representing mean runoff, flood magnitudes and low flows. The sensitivity tests were found to be useful to assess the suitability of the models to simulate flows outside the conditions experienced in their calibration. Both models gave internally consistent results but, on close examination, one model was found inappropriate for this application. Results show that the effect of climate change on flow varies between catchments and that different flow response indices can change in opposite directions, e.g. floods increased in magnitude while low flows reduced. Contrasting results were obtained from the two climate scenarios.     

Effects of meteorology and land use on ambient measurements of primary pollutants in Córdoba city, Argentina

Summary The atmospheric concentrations of several primary species: NO, NO₂, NO_x, CO, SO₂, reactive hydrocarbons (ROG) and other 15 atmospheric and meteorological variables have been measured at several locations in Córdoba city, Argentina since June 1995. The measurements are carried out using two mobile stations to cover several important areas of Córdoba. The objective of this work is to estimate the effects of meteorology and urban structure on the air quality levels for this city using simple statistics. We analyze the correlation between primary pollutants (CO and NO_x) and site locations of the air quality monitoring stations (AQMS) during the whole 1995 field campaign. In this study we take the measured data for primary pollutants and group them by location and time of the year. The results of this work may be useful to forecast air pollution episodes. Also we can get indirect information about emissions and maybe identify source characteristics. Once the influences of topography, meteorology, and land use will be fully characterized, the existing monitoring data will be used to do air quality modeling analysis and to select monitoring locations. The use of mobile stations instead of stationary ones at this stage is justified because of limited funding. Therefore, it is a valid option to decide in the future the additional instrumentation required to characterize completely the atmospheric urban area.With 5 Figures     

On the heat budget of the Arabian Sea

Summary The rate of oceanic heat storage of the upper 200m of the Arabian Sea is explained in terms of net air-sea heat flux (Q _F), heat change due to horizontal divergence and vertical motion (Q _V) and heat change due to lateral advection (Q _A). The analysis revealed that the heat storage of the Arabian Sea is mainly controlled byQ _V while the effect ofQ _A is much larger than expected. Parameterisation of summer cooling revealed that the depletion of energy from the mixed layer is mainly due to upwelling and horizontal advection though large amount of heat is accumulated due to net air-sea heat flux. The annual heat balance of the upper 200m of the Arabian Sea suggested large heat gain by air-sea exchange processes. About two third of this heat gain is compensated by horizontal advection and one third by vertical advection.With 4 Figures     

Measurement of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Plumes from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska Oil Fields

Large carbon dioxide plumes with concentrations up to 45 ppm aboveambient levels were measured about 15 km downwind of the Prudhoe Bay, Alaskamajor oil production facilities, located at 70° N Lat. above the ArcticCircle. The measured emissions were 1.3 × 10³ metrictons (C) hour^-1 (11.4× 10⁶ metric tons(C) year^-1), six times greater than the combustion emissionsassumed by Jaffe and coworkers in J. Atmos. Chem. 20 (1995), 213–227,based on 1989 reported Prudhoe Bay oil facility fuel consumption data, andfour times greater than the total C emissions reported by the oil facilitiesfor the same months as the measurement time periods. Variations in theemissions were estimated by extrapolating the observed emissions at a singlealtitude for all tundra research transect flights conducted downwind of theoil fields. These 30 flights yielded an average emission rate of1.02 × 10³ metric tons (C) hour^-1 with astandard deviation of 0.33 × 10³. These quantity ofemissions are roughly equivalent to the carbon dioxide emissions of7–10 million hectares of arctic tussock tundra (Oechel and Vourlitis,Trends in Ecol. Evolution 9 (1994), 324–329).     

Mechanical aspects of sedimentary basin formation: development of integrated models for lithospheric and surface processes

Different assumptions for the thermo-mechanical properties of the lithosphere strongly affect predictions inferred from quantitative sedimentary basin modeling. Examples from various basins, selected as natural laboratories, illustrate the importance of incorporating a finite strength of the extending lithosphere in forward stratigraphic modeling of large-scale basin stratigraphy. Current models can effectively couple erosion at uplifted rift shoulders of extensional basins with the basin fill architecture of the subsiding basin compartments. Modeling of the synrift strata integrates spatial scales characteristic for subbasins, such as the Oseberg field in the North Sea, with large-scale lithospheric properties characterizing the bulk strength of extending lithosphere. Modeling of compressional basins in foreland fold-and-thrust-belt settings can effectively link lithospheric flexure with surface processes. Scales pertinent to short-term spatial and temporal variations in basin fill and basin deformation can now be addressed, allowing the quantitative investigation of consequences of different modes of thrusting for basin fill geometry and facies characteristics.