Scenarios of global municipal water-use demand projections over the 21st century

Abstract

A comparison study is presented of three methods for evaluating trends in drought frequency: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and a new method for estimation of dry spells (DS), which is based on average daily temperature and precipitation, and takes into account the length of a spell. The methods were applied to climate data from 450 stations in the Elbe River basin for the period 1951–2003, as well as data from several stations with longer observed time series. Statistical methods were used to calculate trend lines and evaluate the significance of detected trends. The dry spells estimated with the new method show significant trends in the whole lowland part of the Elbe basin during the last 53 years, and at the 10% level almost everywhere in the German part of the basin excluding mountains and the area around the river mouth. The SPI and PDSI methods also revealed significant trends, but for smaller areas in the lowland. The new DS method provides a useful supplement to other drought indices for the detection of trends in drought frequency. Furthermore, the DS method was able to detect statistically significant trends in areas where the other two methods failed to find significant trends, e.g. in the loess region in the southwest of the German part of the basin, where small insignificant changes in climate can lead to significant changes in water fluxes. This is important, because the loess region is the area within the basin having the highest crop yields. Therefore, additional research has to be done to investigate possible impacts of detected trends on water resources availability, and possible future trends in drought frequency under climate change.     

2007年7月12-15日河南省大暴雨天气诊断分析

利用常规观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,对2007年7月12-15日河南省黄淮之间的大暴雨过程进行了诊断分析,结果发现:这次暴雨是一次较为典型的西南低涡东北移影响河南省所造成的暴雨,500 hPa西风槽东移过程中,槽前携带的冷空气不断自西北方向侵入西南低涡中心,导致西南涡东移发展,移经河南省,在其移向的右前方和中心区产生了强降水;垂直上升运动区及流线辐合区与暴雨落区有较好的对应关系;这次暴雨水汽输送源地有两个,分别是孟加拉湾和东海海面;水汽辐合区与暴雨落区相对应;垂直螺旋度的演变对本次西南涡暴雨有较好预报指示意义。     

一种改进的Delaunay三角网生长算法

针对Delaunay三角网生长算法构网效率不高的问题,引进逐点插入法中的凸壳技术,利用凸壳作为初始多边形构建Delaunay三角网;在搜索前,按一定规则对搜索范围进行限制;在搜索三角形的第3点时,采用直线方程正负区域进行判别。测试结果表明,改进的算法在构网效率上有明显提高,在精度方面也有一定的改善。     

Reservoir Characteristics of Fine-grained Sedimentary Rocks in Saline Lakes in the Cenozoic Upper Ganchaigou Formation, Southwestern Qaidam Basin, NW China

Cenozoic fine-grained sedimentary rocks in the southwestern Qaidam Basin, as typical salinized lacustrine sediments, are significantly different from those in other freshwater lakes under the impact of the high salinity in the lake. Many fine-grained sedimentary rock samples were selected from the lower member of Neogene (N1) in the Gaskule Oilfield, Qaidam Basin, northwest China, with the aim to analyze and test their petrology, pore structure, and organic geochemical characteristics and determine its genesis and geological significance. Based on previous results, a new genesis of mixed sedimentary rocks is proposed. The Cenozoic lacustrine fine-grained sedimentary rocks in SW Qaidam Basin belong to mixed sedimentary rocks, which can be divided into three types, including carbonate and terrigenous clastic-bearing mudstone, carbonate-bearing to terrigenous clastic mixed sedimentary rocks, and carbonate-terrigenous clastic mixed sedimentary rocks. The geneses of mixing are quite different from that of mixed marine rocks. According to the sedimentary characteristics of the salinized lakes, three new geneses of mixed deposits are proposed: syn-sedimentary mixing, varve interbedded mixing, and biogenic mixing. The reservoir spaces of the Cenozoic lacustrine fine-grained sedimentary rocks in SW Qaidam Basin include residual intergranular pores, intercrystalline pores, microfractures, and minor dissolved pores. The reservoirs have super-low porosity and ultra-low permeability, with a porosity of 1.82%–21.04%, averaging 7.71%, and permeability of (0.0028–254.86) × 10?3 μm2, averaging 2.82 × 10?3 μm2. The test results of total organic carbon (TOC) content show that the highest content of organic carbon reached 1.41%, and those of vitrinite reflectance show that Ro ranges from 0.525%–0.824%, with an average of 0.806%. The organic geochemical characteristics show that the fine-grained mixed sedimentary rocks of SW Qaidam Basin have the potential for self-generation and self-storage. As an unconventional reservoir, it has potential industrial value. This is the first study of fine-grained sedimentary rocks in the Qaidam Basin, which offers certain theoretical and practical values.     

多含水层系统的研究及应用

从平原地区的多含水层系统概念出发,建立了多含水层系统的数学模型,在此基础上进行了多含水层系统的流程设计,为解决此类地下水模型计算提供了一个良好的方法和思路。针对多含水层系统和多层、多结点,形成的矩阵方程组线形高度稀疏特点,给出了共轭梯度法和SSOR-共轭梯度法的两种比较解法,最后结合松辽盆地东部三层含水层系统的计算实例,对未来地下水开采引起的水位变化进行了预报,预测明水一段和二段在2005年将会各出现一个较大的降落漏斗,且二段漏斗的深度和范围明显大于一段。多含水层系统的研究具有较大的实用性和灵活性。      

山东省平度—莱西地区透辉石矿矿床地质特征

平度—莱西地区透辉石矿成矿带西起平度长乐镇东至莱西市南墅镇,全长约50km,宽约5km,总体分布方向近EW向.矿体控制长度为510～1873.5m,厚度为45.72～67.59m,最大延伸约200m.矿石矿物透辉石含量一般为80％～98％.有害组分Fe2O3含量一般为0.22％～0.31％,MnO+TiO2含量一般为0...     

侵蚀泥沙、有机质和全氮富集规律

Serious soil erosion has already resulted in degradation of the Loess Plateau of China. Soil erosion is commonly accompanied by extensive soil nutrient loss. Because of enrichment processes,sediment nutrient content is often higher than that of natural soil. The objective of this study is to determine the enrichments of organic matter and total nitrogen in sediment in hilly and gully loess areas on the Loess Plateau of China. Measurements of enrichment ratios (ER) of organic matter (EROM) and total nitrogen (ERTN) in sediment as affected by rainfall, slope gradient, tillage, and fertilization were made in the field under natural rainfall conditions. The results showed that the enrichment of clay in sediment resulted in the enrichment of organic matter (OM) and total nitrogen(TN) in sediment. The averages of sediment clay ER, EROM and ERTN for the various slope gradients were 1.77, 2.09 and 1.61, respectively. The soil erosive module was negatively correlated with EROM and ERTN. Our results indicate that measures to reduce soil erosion, i.e. reducing rainfall erosivity, decreasing soil slope gradient, decreasing fertilizer use, and using level trenches, may increase EROM and ERTN. Both quantity and quality of sediment yield should be considered when implementing erosion control measures.     

The effect of global climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

Climate change will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate change on heating and cooling demands requires taking into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time, but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself. In this study, we explore the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling requirement by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days (HDD/CDDs) for both reference (no-policy) and 550 ppmv CO₂ concentration pathways built from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) output and three scenarios of gridded population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China are then explored by using the results of HDD/CDDs as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The results across the modeled changes in climate and population distributions indicate that unabated climate change would cause building sector’s final energy consumption to decrease modestly (6 % decrease or less depending on climate models) in both the U.S. and China by the end of the century as decreased heating consumption more than offsets increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, global climate change virtually has negligible effect on total CO₂ emissions in the buildings sector in both countries. The results also indicate more substantial implications for the fuel mix with increases in electricity and decreases in other fuels, which may be consistent with climate mitigation goals. The variation in results across all scenarios due to variation of population distribution is smaller than variation due to the use of different climate models.     

A BAROCLINIC SEMI-GEOSTROPHIC MODEL USING THE WAVE-CISK THEORY AND LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION*

A baroclinic semi-geostrophic model describing the atmospheric motion in low latitudes and using the wave-CISK theory is established and the analytic solution is obtained. It is shown that the effect of nondimensional latent heat parameter which is assumed to depend only on height and used to state the wave-CISK mechanism is very important to the low-frequency oscillation.     

麦田通量数据质量控制及能量闭合性分析

近地面层能量不闭合是涡度相关系统观测中普遍存在的难点问题。为了提高涡度相关系统通量观测数据的质量,选取郑州农业气象试验站2009年10月—2010年6月整个冬小麦生长季的通量观测资料,对30 min通量数据进行野点剔除、数据插补和Webb-Pearman-Leuning(WPL)校正等数据预处理。用两种方法(OLS和EBR)评价了该地区麦田生态系统能量平衡状况。结果表明:处理后的数据质量有明显提升,日平均湍流能增加7.09 W·m~(-2),日平均CO2通量减少0.0730 mg·m~(-2)·s~(-1)。农田涡度相关系统观测的能量平衡比率(EBR)日变化规律明显:早晨和傍晚昼夜交替时EBR波动最大,白天能量闭合状况优于夜间;暖季EBR大部分都在1左右浮动,能量平衡闭合程度较高,而冬季能量平衡闭合程度比暖季偏低。能量通量和湍流通量有较强的相关性,决定系数R2=0.8066,能量闭合度为88%,存在能量不闭合现象。