An assessment of future dryness over Korea based on the ECHAM5-RegCM3 model chain under A1B emission scenario

We analyze the future dryness over Korea based on the projected temperature and precipitation. For fine-scale climate information, the ECHAM5/MPI-OM A1B simulation has been dynamically downscaled using the RegCM3 double-nested system. A 130-year long-term climatology (1971?C2100) from the mother domain (East Asia: 60 km) and nested domain (South Korea: 20 km) is discussed. Based on the intercomparison with CMIP3 participant models, the ECHAM5/MPI-OM provides climatic change information over the East Asia that is not markedly different from other projections. However, the reduction of summer precipitation over Korea is rather different with ensemble mean of CMIP3 participant models. The downscaled results generally follow the behavior of ECHAM5/MPIOM, but substantial fine-scale details are found in the spatial pattern and the change signals become more enhanced at the local scale. In the future projection, significant warming is found regardless of the season and region while the change in precipitation shows a mixed feature with both increasing and decreasing patterns. The increase of temperature enhances the evapotranspiration, and hence the actual water stress becomes more pronounced in the warmer climate. This is related to the negative trends of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to measure the drought condition in Korea. Although PDSI is overall associated with the precipitation variation, its long-term trend tends to be modulated by the temperature trend. It is confirmed that the detrended temperature is shown to mask the decreasing tendency of the PDSI. The result indicates that without an increase in precipitation appropriate for atmospheric moisture demand, future dryness is a more likely condition under global warming.     

Resource Utilization of Three Copepods Along Salinity Gradient in the Seomjin River Estuary,Revealed by Stable Isotope Analysis

Ocean Science Journal - Estuaries are one of the most productive regions in ecosystems and serve as important nursery and recruitment habitats for various living resources. However, information on...     

The effect of capillary pressure on the saturation equation of two‐phase flow in porous media

A complete and accurate simulation of two‐phase flow in porous media requires knowledge of all the controlling physics (and values of physical parameters) that play a relevant role and an understanding of the effects of each one on the solution. Of particular concern here is the effect of capillary pressure and the length scale over which it is relevant. The goal of this paper is to provide guidance onto when to include the effects of capillary pressure in the model, and onto what are the resulting length scale restrictions if those effects are to be included. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the impacts of land use changes on watershed hydrology using MIKE SHE

A fully distributed, physically-based hydrologic modeling system, MIKE SHE, was used in this study to investigate whole-watershed hydrologic response to land use changes within the Gyeongancheon watershed in Korea. A grid of 200 × 200 m was established to represent spatial variations in geology, soil, and land use. Initial model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated streamflow from 1988 to 1991. Results indicated that the calibrated MIKE SHE model was able to predict streamflow well during the calibration and validation periods. Proportional changes in five classes of land use within the watershed were derived from multi-temporal Landsat TM imageries taken in 1980, 1990 and 2000. These imageries revealed that the watershed experienced conversion of approximately 10% non-urban area to urban area between 1980 and 2000. The calibrated MIKE SHE model was then programmed to repeatedly analyze an artificial dataset under the various land use proportions identified in the Landsat TM imageries. The analysis was made to quantitatively assess the impact of land use changes (predominantly urbanization) on watershed hydrology. There were increases in total runoff (5.5%) and overland flow (24.8%) as a response to the land use change.     

Long-term rates of sediment accumulation in the Tonle Sap,Cambodia: a threat to ecosystem health?

The Tonle Sap is an invaluable resource for the people of Cambodia, and is a globally significant ecological site. Much of the literature published on the environmental health and management of the lake suggests that its sustainability is threatened by accelerated rates of infilling related to unfettered land-use in the catchment. However, the evidence for supposedly increased sedimentation rates is confused and contradictory, and there have been very few studies that have attempted to actually measure the rate at which sediment is accumulating on the bed of the lake. This research measures long-term sedimentation rates in the Tonle Sap in an attempt to provide an empirically derived baseline against which more recent and allegedly accelerated sedimentation rates can be compared. Radiometric dating techniques (¹⁴C, ²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs) reveal that sediment has been accumulating in the lake at an average long-term rate of less than 1 mm per year. There is a clear and consistent decline in the rate of sediment accumulation in the lake basin over time, with the highest rates recorded in the middle to early Holocene epoch. It is recommended that research be directed toward measuring changes in the morphology of the lake margin over time, rather than focus on changes in the bathymetry of the lake basins themselves, which are here shown to be effectively stable in terms of sediment accumulation.     

Distribution of Changjiang Diluted Water detected by satellite chlorophyll-a and its interannual variation during 1998–2007

Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) chlorophyll-a distribution in summer in the East China Sea during 1998–2007 was analyzed. Statistical analysis with K-means clustering technique allowed us to define the proper satellite chlorophyll-a concentration indicating the Changjiang Diluted Water (CDW). The spatial distributions of the higher satellite chlorophyll-a concentrations (>0.48 mg m⁻³) corresponded well with the distributions of lower salinity CDW (<30–32) every year. Interannual variation of the CDW area, indicated by the high satellite chlorophyll-a, correlated with the interannual variation of the Changjiang summer freshwater discharge. The correlation analysis indicated that the CDW spread eastward in the East China Sea with a time lag of 1 to 2 months after the discharge.     

Multi-decadal scenario simulation over Korea using a one-way double-nested regional climate model system. Part 2: future climate projection (2021–2050)

An analysis of simulated future surface climate change over the southern half of Korean Peninsula using a RegCM3-based high-resolution one-way double-nested system is presented. Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are discussed for the 30-year-period of 2021–2050 with respect to the reference period of 1971–2000 based on the IPCC SRES B2 emission scenario. Warming in the range of 1–4°C is found throughout the analysis region and in all seasons. The warming is maximum in the higher latitudes of the South Korean Peninsula and in the cold season. A large reduction in snow depth is projected in response to the increase of winter minimum temperature induced by the greenhouse warming. The change in precipitation shows a distinct seasonal variation and a substantial regional variability. In particular, we find a large increase of wintertime precipitation over Korea, especially in the upslope side of major mountain systems. Summer precipitation increases over the northern part of South Korea and decreases over the southern regions, indicating regional diversity. The precipitation change also shows marked intraseasonal variations throughout the monsoon season. The temperature change shows a positive trend throughout 2021–2050 while the precipitation change is characterized by pronounced interdecadal variations. The PDF of the daily temperature is shifted towards higher values and is somewhat narrower in the scenario run than the reference one. The number of frost days decreases markedly and the number of hot days increases. The regional distribution of heavy precipitation (over 80 mm/day) changes considerably, indicating changes in flood vulnerable regions. The climate change signal shows pronounced fine scale signal over Korea, indicating the need of high-resolution climate simulations     

Blunt ocean dynamical thermostat in response of tropical eastern Pacific SST to global warming

Using an intermediate ocean–atmosphere coupled model (ICM) for the tropical Pacific, we investigated the role of the ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) in regulating the tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) under global warming conditions. The external, uniformly distributed surface heating results in the cooling of the tropical eastern Pacific “cold tongue,” and the amplitude of the cooling increases as more heat is added but not simply linearly. Furthermore, an upper bound for the influence of the equatorially symmetric surface heating on the cold tongue cooling exists. The additional heating beyond the upper bound does not cool the cold tongue in a systematic manner. The heat budget analysis suggests that the zonal advection is the primary factor that contributes to such nonlinear SST response. The radiative heating due to the greenhouse effect (hereafter, RHG) that is obtained from the multi-model ensemble of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase III (CMIP3) was externally given to ICM. The RHG obtained from the twentieth century simulation intensified the cold tongue cooling and the subtropical warming, which were further intensified by the RHG from the doubled CO₂ concentration simulation. However, the cold tongue cooling was significantly reduced and the negative SST response region was shrunken toward the equator by the RHG from the quadrupled CO₂ concentration simulation, while the subtropical warming increased further. A systematic RHG forced experiment having the same spatial pattern of RHG from doubled CO₂ concentration simulation with different amplitude of forcing revealed that the ocean dynamical response to global warming tended to enhance the cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific by virtue of meridional advection and upwelling; however, these cooling effects could not fully compensate a given RHG warming as the external forcing becomes larger. Moreover, the feedback by the zonal thermal advection actually exerted the warming over the equatorial region. Therefore, as the global warming is intensified, the cooling over the eastern tropical Pacific by ODT and the negative SST response area are reduced.