煤层气储层注入/压降试井可靠性判识方法探讨

注入/压降试井作为获取煤储层参数的一个重要手段,近年来获得了广泛的应用.但由于施工设计不合理、现场操作不规范、模型选择不正确等问题,导致测试过程异常和测试结果失真,针对这些问题提出了几种判识方法:利用储层压力值与末点压力值的关系来检验测试结果是否可靠;利用井储系数计算值与实测值的关系及双对数曲线上出现的异常点来检验封隔器是否密封及井下关井是否成功.为了提高注入/压降试井测试过程和结果的可靠性,建议采用推荐的检验方法对试井资料及解释结果进行分析判断,以便合理指导后续勘探开发工作.     

Soil erosion monitoring and its implication in a limestone land suffering from rocky desertification in the Huajiang Canyon, Guizhou, Southwest China

Over the past decades, the vast limestone mountain areas in southwestern China have suffered greatly from karst rocky desertification (KRD), which is a unique type of desertification caused by irrational land-use practices and has drawn increasing attention of international academic community. Characterizing soil erosion in this region is the key to understanding the escalating KRD problem and finding solution to it. The authors applied leveling method to study soil erosion process in the Huajiang Karst Canyon area between 1999 and 2003, and tried to relate it to KRD expansion. The monitoring data indicate that soil in the study area was losing at an alarming rate, which is much higher than soil formation rate and has already resulted in severe KRD problem. Soil loss under different land-use conditions varied greatly during the monitoring period. The highest soil erosion rate occurred in bare and newly abandoned cropland, followed by sparse grass land, forest land, and dense grass land. In addition, soil erosion could be significantly different under different micro-topographic conditions. Because soil erosion rate in the studied karst mountain areas is surprisingly high, it is urgent to take quick actions to fight against the ongoing KRD problems in Southwest China before an irreversible situation occurs. However, the traditional way to combat KRD by abandoning current cropland needs to be carefully reconsidered, since a bare newly abandoned cropland may suffer more from rapid soil loss than before.     

一种分析台风路径预报误差的新方法

台风路径预报误差应包括距离误差和方向误差两个方面,而在以往的业务应用和科学研究中偏向于只考虑对应时刻预报和观测位置点间的距离误差。本文对评估台风路径误差的方法进行了改进,在距离误差基础上建立了一种新的表征台风路径误差的方法——多因子误差法。本文以中国气象局整编的热带气旋最佳路径数据为标准,对2008和2009年中国气象局、美国台风联合预警中心和日本气象厅预报的西北太平洋热带气旋路径,采用新的表征热带气旋路径预报误差的多因子误差法进行分析,并与普遍采用的距离误差法进行对比,结果表明:多因子误差分析方法和距离误差分析方法存在比较明显的差异,多因子误差法优势比较明显。本文是对更科学的台风路径预报误差评定方法的有益探索,有一定的参考价值。     

交通行业应急管理空间数据库研制

建立交通行业应急管理空间数据库,可为重大突发自然灾害事件时交通应急提供有效的数据支持。本文面向重大突发自然灾害事件的应急管理,从功能需求上对交通行业应急管理所需数据进行了分类,将空间数据库划分为文件数据库、应急专题数据库和元数据库3个子库,采用Oracle,ArcSDE和文件编目管理相结合的方式进行管理,并建立了交通行业应急管理空间数据库。最后以公路重大自然灾害监测评估为例,说明了该数据库对灾害应急中所开展的快速监测评估分析的应用价值。     

中国荒漠主要植物群落调查的意义、现状及方案

荒漠是中国北方的重要生态系统,约占中国陆地总面积的1/5。植物群落是荒漠生态系统的有机组成部分,是构建中国北方绿色生态屏障、实施国家重大生态工程、落实“一带一路”倡议和建设生态文明的重要基础资源,在国家社会、生态和经济活动中发挥着重要作用。以塔里木-准噶尔盆地荒漠区、青藏高原高寒荒漠区、阿拉善高原-河西走廊荒漠区、西鄂尔多斯高原-阴山北麓荒漠区、内蒙古中东部半干旱荒漠区为主要调查区域,共布设2 300个调查点,以查清中国北方荒漠植物群落类型、种类组成、群落学特性、空间分布、利用现状及生境特征,测定荒漠植物DNA条形码。获取荒漠植物样本8 300份,生境数据5万份,植物DNA条形码2 300份。以此为基础,编写中国荒漠植物群落类型、特征与现状调查报告,编制荒漠植物群落类型分布图集,建立中国荒漠植物群落资源监测体系。通过构建荒漠植物群落的数据库,利用国家科技基础条件平台,实现荒漠植物群落特征数据的联网共享,可为中国荒漠治理、植物资源保护与可持续利用提供数据支撑。     

Co-seismic deformation derived from GPS observations during April 20th, 2013 Lushan Earthquake,Sichuan, China

We process the standard 30 s, static GPS data and the 1 s, high-rate GPS (HRGPS) data provided by the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China with GAMIT/GLOBK software package, and obtain the co-seismic displacements of near field and far field, and the epoch-by-epoch time series of HRGPS during Lushan earthquake. GPS data from about 20 sites in Sichuan province, which located between 40 and 450 km from the epicenter, are analyzed so as to study the characteristics of the static displacements and the dynamic crustal deformations, with periods ranging from several minutes to over a month. The result shows that: the static displacements caused by Lushan earthquake are limited to several centimeters; the nearest station SCTQ at 43 km from the epicenter has the largest static displacement of about 2 cm, while the other stations generally have insignificant displacements of less than 5 mm. the stations in the east of Sichuan–Yunnan region shifts 5–10 mm toward the southwest, and the stations in the middle-west of Sichuan Basin moves indistinctively 1–2 mm toward the northwest; station SCTQ has the largest kinematic displacement of about 4 and 3 cm peak-to-peak on the north and east component, respectively, and is much greater than the static permanent displacement; for the stations located at a distance greater than 150 km from the epicenter, the kinematic motions are generally insignificant; exceptionally, station SCNC and station SCSN in central Sichuan Basin have significant kinematic motions although they are more than 200 km away from the epicenter.     

甘孜-玉树断裂带东南段晚第四纪活动性研究

以甘孜-玉树断裂带东南段的地质地貌为研究对象,在遥感解译的基础上,通过对典型地区的详细野外调查和探槽研究对该段晚第四纪活动性进行研究。在断裂沿线的生康乡、仁果乡、错阿乡、日阿乡进行了断错地貌分析和晚第四纪滑动速率计算, 生康区的水平滑动速率为(7.6±0.5)mm/a, 垂直滑动速率为(1.1±0.1)mm/a; 仁果区的水平滑动速率为(8.0±0.3)mm/a,垂直滑动速率为(1.1±0.1)mm/a; 错阿区的水平滑动速率为(10.3±0.4)mm/a; 日阿区的水平滑动速率为(10.8±0.8)mm/a, 垂直滑动速率为(1.1±0.1)mm/a。在仁果乡和错阿乡进行了探槽研究,两处探槽都揭示了多次古地震事件,虽然揭露的断层构造样式有所不同,但总体上都是以走滑为主兼有一定的逆冲分量。综合古地震事件和滑动速率分析表明,甘孜-玉树断裂带东南段晚第四纪尤其是全新世以来活动剧烈。     

Alternative closed‐form solutions for the mean rate of exceedance of structural limit states

Two new closed‐form expressions representing the mean rate of exceedance of a given limit state are presented herein. These proposals overcome limitations that were identified with the original formulation of the well‐known SAC/FEMA approach. The new expressions involve new parametric functions for the modeling of the seismic hazard data and for the demand evolution for increasing values of the earthquake intensity measure. Given the carefully selected parametric form of these functions, mathematical tractability is able to be maintained to establish two new closed‐form solutions representing the mean rate of exceedance of a given limit state. The function proposed for the hazard exhibits nonlinear behavior in log‐log space and is able to represent the actual hazard data over a wider range of earthquake intensity levels. The function proposed for the demand evolution addresses issues related to the inadequate performance of the SAC/FEMA approach when force‐based demand parameters such as the shear force are considered. To illustrate the applicability of the new closed‐form solutions, the probability of occurrence of several limit states is determined for a reinforced concrete structure. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic vulnerability assessment of historical urban centres: case study of the old city centre in Seixal, Portugal

The seismic vulnerability assessment of old masonry buildings is essential not only to buildings with recognised historical and heritage value but also to ordinary residential masonry buildings. This paper approaches the seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry buildings by applying a simplified methodology to the old city centre of Seixal in Portugal. The methodology adopted in this study was based on a vulnerability index used for the evaluation of damage and the study of loss scenarios on a large scale. Over 500 buildings were assessed using this methodology, and the results were analysed using an integrated Geographical Information System tool. The integration of the vulnerability and loss results could allow city councils or regional authorities to plan interventions based on a global view of the site under analysis, leading to more accurate and comprehensive risk mitigation strategies that support the requirements of safety and emergency planning.