用CAPPI和PPI资料测定区域降水量精度比较

应用上海中心气象台７１４数字化天气雷达的体积扫描资料所得的不同高度上的ＣＡＰＰＩ资料和低仰角时ＰＰＩ资料。估算区域降水量并得到降水量分布形势。然后采用平均校准法进行了校准，最后又与用雨量计网测量的区域降水量及其分布形势作了比较，得到一些有意义的结果。     

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TEQC?????DOS?????????????????TEQC????????????????????????????????????????????????????м??????????????????????????????????????????????????????Visual Basic.NET??TEQC????Windows?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????     

湖北省潮汐形变观测异常及干扰识别

对2003—2013年湖北省数字化定点形变潮汐观测中的突跳、阶变、震颤等异常的分析发现,气象因素对形变潮汐观测的影响复杂:1)不同气压场控制影响形变观测的异常形态不同,但响应频率一致;2)台风对形变观测的秒值和分钟值数据在1～4秒和2～4分钟较高频段均有响应;3)台址条件不同,降雨对形变观测产生的畸变影响不同。影响范围一般在0～全日波频段且存在较大的噪声;4)短时大气温度变化对形变观测有一定影响,会使曲线发生抖动或暂态波动,在64～128分钟和128～256分钟较低频段上有响应。水库冲沙、水库蓄水、土石开挖等环境荷载变化对分钟值观测曲线产生明显阶跃、抖动型实时畸变。人员进洞、施工、仪器标定检修等人为活动对观测曲线的影响可直接识别。     

基于容器技术的天文应用软件自动部署方法

平方千米阵列即将开始建设,各子工作包也进入关键设计评估阶段。基于云与容器技术是平方千米阵列科学数据处理器未来可能采用的平台技术。针对超大规模海量数据处理面临的天文应用软件快速部署、运行与实测要求,充分考虑天文应用软件运行环境复杂、云计算环境下超大规模计算集群部署困难等问题,系统研究并给出了一种使用容器技术的天文应用软件通用自动部署方法。以目前较为常用的可见度函数校准软件SAGECaL为例,首先分析了SAGECaL的相关特性和分布式部署方面存在的困难,进而给出了基于容器技术的SAGECaL分布式集群的自动部署方法。实验结果表明,自动部署方法极大地提高了SAGECaL分布式集群的部署效率,满足项目组承担平方千米阵列科学数据处理器相关测试工作所需要的基础平台部署与切换等需求,同时也为其它天文软件在云端的快速部署与执行提供了有益的思路。     

基于印度洋海温信号的我国西北地区东部夏季降水组合降尺度预测方法研究

利用国家气候中心第二代气候模式预测业务系统(BCC-CPSv2)预测产品,引入印度洋海温信号,采用组合降尺度方法建立了西北地区东部汛期降水预测模型。该预测模型对1991—2017年西北地区东部夏季降水的回报技巧较BCC-CPSv2预测技巧显著提高,空间相关系数由0.42提高到0.75,均方根误差明显减小,最多下降达80%。预测模型对降水空间分布型的预测能力较好,很好地回报了典型年份（1987年和2010年）夏季的降水距平百分率分布。通过抓住气象变量的空间分布特征,组合降尺度方法可以修正动力模式产品的预测误差,为西北地区东部夏季降水预测提供科学依据和技术支持,具有较好的应用前景。     

Modulational behavior of electromagnetic waves in ultra-relativistic electron-positron plasmas

The dynamical properties of electromagnetic (EM) waves in ultra-relativistic electron-positron (EP) plasmas are analytically investigated on the basis of the nonlinear governing equations obtained from a kinetic way. It is shown that the EM wave envelope will collapse and be trapped into a localized region for the modulation interaction with low frequency density variation induced by ponderomotive force. The correlation between the localized strong wave field and the pulsar radio emission is discussed.     

Reponses and sensitivities of maize phenology to climate change from 1981 to 2009 in Henan Province,China

With the global warming, crop phenological shifts in responses to climate change have become a hot research topic. Based on the long-term observed agro-meteorological phenological data (1981–2009) and meteorological data, we quantitatively analyzed temporal and spatial shifts in maize phenology and their sensitivities to key climate factors change using climate tendency rate and sensitivity analysis methods. Results indicated that the sowing date was significantly delayed and the delay tendency rate was 9.0 d·10a^-1. But the stages from emergence to maturity occurred earlier (0.1 d·10a^-1<θ<1.7 d·10a^-1, θ is the change slope of maize phenology). The length of vegetative period (VPL) (from emergence to tasseling) was shortened by 0.9 d·10a^-1, while the length of generative period (GPL) (from tasseling to maturity) was lengthened by 1.7 d·10a^-1. The growing season length (GSL) (from emergence to maturity) was lengthened by 0.4 d·10a^-1. Correlation analysis indicated that maize phenology was significantly correlated with average temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days (GDD) (p<0.01). Average temperature had significant negative correlation relationship, while precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days had significant positive correlations with maize phenology. Sensitivity analysis indicated that maize phenology showed different responses to variations in key climate factors, especially at different sites. The conclusions of this research could provide scientific supports for agricultural adaptation to climate change to address the global food security issue.     

Changes in wheat potential productivity and drought severity in Southwest China

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Wheat production in Southwest China (SWC) plays a vital role in guaranteeing local grain security, but it is threatened by increasingly frequent seasonal...