Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Groundwater resources in the Jabal Al Hass region,northwest Syria: an assessment of past use and future potential

In many cases, the development of groundwater resources to boost agricultural production in dry areas has led to a continuous decline in groundwater levels; this has called into question the sustainability of such exploitation. In developing countries, limited budgets and scarce hydrological data often do not allow groundwater resources to be assessed through groundwater modeling. A case study is presented of a low-cost water-balance approach to groundwater resource assessments in a 1,550 km² semi-arid region in northwestern Syria. The past development of irrigated agriculture and its effect on the groundwater system were studied by analysis of Landsat images and long-term groundwater level changes, respectively. All components of the groundwater balance were determined. Groundwater recharge was estimated using the chloride mass balance method. Over the past three decades, groundwater levels have declined, on average, 23 m, coinciding with a two-fold increase in the groundwater-irrigated area. Groundwater resources are currently depleted by a value that lies between 9.5×10⁶ and 118×10⁶ m³ year^?1, which is larger than can be compensated for by a future decrease in natural discharge or changes in boundary conditions. However, groundwater resources are likely to be sufficient to supply domestic and livestock needs in the area.     

High heat flow anomalies on an old oceanic plate observed seaward of the Japan Trench

Thirty-three new measurements on the seaward slope and outer rise of the Japan Trench along a parallel of 38°45′N revealed the existence of high heat flow anomalies on the subducting Pacific plate, where the seafloor age is about 135 m.y.. The most prominent anomaly with the highest value of 114 mW/m² is associated with a small mound on the outer rise, which was reported to be a kind of mud volcano. On the seaward slope of the trench, heat flow is variable: high (70–90 mW/m²) at some locations and normal for the seafloor age (about 50 mW/m²) at others. The spatial variation of heat flow may be related to development of normal faults and horst/graben structures due to bending of the Pacific plate before subduction, with fluid flow along the fault zones enhancing the vertical heat transfer. Possible heat sources of the high heat flow anomalies are intra-plate volcanism in the last several million years like that discovered recently on the Pacific plate east of the Japan Trench.     

Climate changing characteristics of Zhangye City in Heihe River basin during 1968–2005

At present, researches on climate change of the Heihe River basin mainly focus on the relationship between basin climate change and regional water resources, regional desertification and dynamic climatic seasons of sandstorm, but less on climate change of oasis region, where there are more intense and frequent human activities. Based on data of precipitation, temperature, strong wind and dust events frequencies obtained from the six meteorological stations of Zhangye region in Heihe River basin, the features of climate change during 1968–2005 were carefully studied. Results show that the regional temperature rise rate exceeded the average level of China. The annual precipitation changed a little, but the precipitation had a slowly increasing trend in spring and winter. Frequencies of strong wind and sandstorm days show obviously descending trends, which had a close correlation with the regional temperature rise and the precipitation increase in spring and winter. Meanwhile, further human economic activities and exploitations to the oasis in the inland valley of arid regions also affected the climate change of this region, which has a sensitive and fragile eco-environment. __________ Translated from Journal of Desert Research, 2007, 27(6): 1048–1054 [译自: 中国沙漠]     

电容测试法判断测井电缆系统故障

测井电缆因长途颠簸、拉伸及绞车缠绕挤压,电缆连接器、电缆、绞车滑环、滑环连线等部位极易出现故障。电容测试法是一种简易、快速的检测方法,该法可在现场准确诊断出故障电缆的位置。以四芯铠装电缆为例,每根缆芯的正常阻值约为80Ω/1 000m,两缆芯间的分布电容约为170PPF/1 000m。在实际检测中,根据电容较小时测点的位置,可以有效判断故障部位;而电缆故障位置则可利用电阻及电容的线性关系进行计算予以确定。     

Inversely-Mapped Analytical Solutions for Flow Patterns around and within Inclined Elliptic Inclusions in Fluid-Saturated Rocks

In this paper, an inverse mapping is used to transform the previously-derived analytical solutions from a local elliptical coordinate system into a conventional Cartesian coordinate system. This enables a complete set of exact analytical solutions to be derived rigorously for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function, and excess pore-fluid pressure around and within buried inclined elliptic inclusions in pore-fluid-saturated porous rocks. To maximize the application range of the derived analytical solutions, the focal distance of an ellipse is used to represent the size of the ellipse, while the length ratio of the long axis to the short one is used to represent the geometrical shape of the ellipse. Since the present analytical solutions are expressed in a conventional Cartesian coordinate system, it is convenient to investigate, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pressure around and within many different families of buried inclined elliptic inclusions. The major advantage in using the present analytical solution is that they can be conveniently computed in a global Cartesian coordinate system, which is widely used in many scientific and engineering computations. As an application example, the present analytical solutions have been used to investigate how the dip angle of an inclined elliptic inclusion affects the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pore-fluid pressure when the permeability ratio of the elliptic inclusion is of finite but nonzero values.     

淄博市洪山、寨里煤矿地下水串层污染形成原因及防治

淄博市洪山、寨里煤矿区隐伏的奥陶系灰岩裂隙岩溶水污染严重。水质污染突发于矿坑全面闭坑以后，污染范围与矿坑水区一致，地下水污染组份与矿坑水的高含量组份相同。水质恶化主要由矿坑水串层污染所致。在此针对串层污染形成原因及影响因素，提出了防治对策。     

Parameter identification of inelastic structures under dynamic loads

The generalized model of differential hysteresis contains 13 control parameters with which it can curve‐fit practically any hysteretic trace. Three identification algorithms are developed to estimate the control parameters of hysteresis for different classes of inelastic structures. These algorithms are based upon the simplex, extended Kalman filter, and generalized reduced gradient methods. Novel techniques such as global search and internal constraints are incorporated to facilitate convergence and stability. Effectiveness of the devised algorithms is demonstrated through simulations of two inelastic systems with both pinching and degradation characteristics in their hysteretic traces. Owing to very modest computing requirements, these identification algorithms may become acceptable as a design tool for mapping the hysteretic traces of inelastic structures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.