Mapping hourly dynamics of urban population using trajectories reconstructed from mobile phone records

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban population is crucial for addressing a wide range of urban planning and management issues. Aggregated geospatial big data have been widely used to quantitatively estimate population distribution at fine spatial scales over a given time period. However, it is still a challenge to estimate population density at a fine temporal resolution over a large geographical space, mainly due to the temporal asynchrony of population movement and the challenges to acquiring a complete individual movement record. In this article, we propose a method to estimate hourly population density by examining the time‐series individual trajectories, which were reconstructed from call detail records using BP neural networks. We first used BP neural networks to predict the positions of mobile phone users at an hourly interval and then estimated the hourly population density using log‐linear regression at the cell tower level. The estimated population density is linearly correlated with population census data at the sub‐district level. Trajectory clustering results show five distinct diurnal dynamic patterns of population movement in the study area, revealing spatially explicit characteristics of the diurnal commuting flows, though the driving forces of the flows need further investigation.     

江西气候生态产品价值实现的探索与思考

江西省气象部门针对气候生态产品价值实现开展了许多探索,积累了一系列的先进经验。文中从江西气候生态产品价值实现途径、效益、政策等方面进行思考和分析,认为政策先行营造制度环境、创建品牌实现气候价值、试点示范稳步实践创新和搭建平台培育价值理念等手段为挖掘气候好资源做好“两山”转化工作提供了有力支撑。针对发现的问题,提出了建议：理念创新,将气候资源价值转化固化于制;机制创新,用制度保护气候资源价值实现;载体创新,创品牌实现气候生态产品价值。     

基于DERF的SD方法预测月降水和极端降水日数

针对动力气候模式对区域或更小空间尺度内的日降水预测技巧偏低的问题,应用最优子集回归 (OSR) 方法对国家气候中心业务化的月动力气候模式 (DERF) 输出的高度场、风场和海平面气压场进行降尺度处理用于降水预测,旨在提高预测准确率。1982—2006年交叉检验结果表明：OSR方法能显著提高降水预测技巧,其中11~40 d改善效果最为显著。在此基础上,应用一步法和两步法两种统计降尺度方法预测极端降水日数,交叉检验结果表明:两种方法均优于随机预测,冬季两步法预测技巧略高于一步法,夏季一步法略优于两步法。综合认为OSR,OSR结合随机天气发生器 (WG) 两种统计降尺度方法对月尺度降水或极端降水日数的预测均具有较高的技巧,可作为短期气候预测的重要参考信息。     

Club convergence and spatial distribution dynamics of carbon intensity in China’s construction industry

Climate change caused by carbon emissions continuously threatens sustainable development. Due to China’s immense territory, there are remarkable regional differences in carbon emissions. The construction industry, which has strong internal industrial differences, further leads to carbon emission disparity in China. Policymakers should consider spatial effects and attempt to eliminate carbon emission inequality to promote the sustainable development of the construction industry and realize emission reduction targets. Based on the classic Markov chain and spatial Markov chain, this paper investigates the club convergence and spatial distribution dynamics of China’s carbon intensity in the construction industry from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the provincial carbon intensity in the construction industry is characterized by “convergence clubs” during the research period, and very low-level and very high-level convergence clubs have strong stability. Moreover, the carbon intensity class transitions of provinces tend to be consistent with that of their neighbors. Furthermore, the transition of carbon intensity types is highly influenced by their regional backgrounds. The provinces with high carbon emissions have a negative influence on their neighbors, whereas the provinces with low carbon emissions have a positive influence. These analyses provide a spatial interpretation to the “club convergence” of carbon intensity.     

大别山东缘郯庐断裂带造山后左行平移活动时间：锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年结果的限定

郯庐断裂带在造山阶段之后发生了明显的左行平移活动,但到目前为止对于其发生时间仍存在较大争议。大别山东缘郯庐断裂带内存在一系列花岗质、基性岩脉,其形成与郯庐断裂带左行平移活动密切相关,因而对其形成年龄的测定可以为断裂带左行平移时间提供限定。本次工作在大别山东缘郯庐断裂带内糜棱岩及岩脉中采集了6个样品开展锆石LA-ICP-MS年龄测定。两个花岗质糜棱岩样品均得到了新元古代和印支期两组年龄结果,但并未得到早白垩世年龄结果,可能指示了强烈的构造变形抑制了锆石的生长。与断裂带左行平移活动同期的基性岩墙侵位时间为128 Ma左右;斜切糜棱岩面理的基性岩墙侵位于127 Ma 左右;发生韧性变形形成糜棱岩的二长花岗岩侵位时间为128 Ma左右;仅出现NE向劈理的钾长花岗岩侵位于126 Ma。综合以上结果,大别山东缘郯庐断裂带与下扬子地区存在类似的构造背景,其早白垩世左行平移事件的发生时间为128 Ma之前,之后断裂带在区域伸展背景下转变为正断层活动。     

X射线荧光光谱法测定地质样品中的氯

使用粉末压片法制样,X射线荧光光谱法测定地质样品中氯,探讨了样片背衬、样片接受X光照射时间对测量结果的影响。Cl的精密度(RSD,n=12)小于10%。Cl的方法检出限为12μg/g,采用国家一级标准物质分析验证方法,其结果与标准值相符。     

黄河源地区草地退化空间特征

利用黄河源地区1985年和2000年1：100000土地利用／覆被数据,结合1：250000DEM、道路和居民点数据与野外调查资料,分析草地退化与坡向、海拔及距道路和居民点距离之间的关系．探讨黄河源区15年间土地覆被变化特征与规律。结果表明,退化草地占源区总面积的8．24％,冬春季牧场退化率显著高于夏季牧场：草地退化是黄河源区研究时段内土地利用／覆被变化最主要的特征。草地退化表现为：①阳坡退化率高于阴坡;②受人口密度影响,草地退化率与海拔高度成反比,相关系数为．0．925;③距离居民点越近。退化率越高。尤其当与居民点距离≤12km时,草地退化率与其相关系数高达-0．996;④在距道路4km以内．草地退化率与道路距离成反比．相关系数高达-0．978。1985年以来,源区的草地退化有自然因素的影响．但人类活动的影响仍起主导作用。科学地减少当地居民对草地的过分依赖是解决脆弱的江河源区环境退化的根本。     

武汉绕城公路东北段主要工程地质问题研究

为了给项目的设计和施工提供科学依据，对武汉绕城公路东北段软土、膨胀土、砂土地震液化、岩溶、深路堑、高填路基、筑路材料等潜在的地质灾害进行了详细评价，通过采用工程地质测绘及钻探、触探、物探、试验分析等多种勘探、测试手段，对沿线的各种工程地及其危害表现形式进行计算分析，预测施工过程及工程建成后可能出现的岩土工程问题，提出了相应的施工方法，对同类工程的建设具有指导意义。     

Effects of land use and cultivation time on soil organic and inorganic carbon storage in deep soils

The vertical distribution and exchange mechanisms of soil organic and inorganic carbon(SOC, SIC) play an important role in assessing carbon(C) cycling and budgets. However, the impact of land use through time for deep soil C(below 100 cm) is not well known. To investigate deep C storage under different land uses and evaluate how it changes with time, we collected soil samples to a depth of 500 cm in a soil profile in the Gutun watershed on the Chinese Loess Plateau(CLP); and determined SOC, SIC, and bulk density. The magnitude of SOC stocks in the 0–500 cm depth range fell into the following ranking: shrubland(17.2 kg m~(-2)) grassland(16.3 kg m~(-2)) forestland(15.2 kg m~(-2)) cropland(14.1 kg m~(-2)) gully land(6.4 kg m~(-2)). The ranking for SIC stocks were: grassland(104.1 kg m~(-2)) forestland(96.2 kg m~(-2)) shrubland(90.6 kg m~(-2)) cropland(82.4 kg m~(-2)) gully land(50.3 kg m~(-2)). Respective SOC and SIC stocks were at least 1.6-and 2.1-fold higher within the 100–500 cm depth range, as compared to the 0–100 cm depth range. Overall SOC and SIC stocks decreased significantly from the 5 th to the 15 th year of cultivation in croplands, and generally increased up to the 70 th year. Both SOC and SIC stocks showed a turning point at 15 years cultivation, which should be considered when evaluating soil C sequestration. Estimates of C stocks greatly depends on soil sampling depth, and understanding the influences of land use and time will improve soil productivity and conservation in regions with deep soils.     

沉降量约束下的黄骅裂谷形成的地球的动力学模式

在计算覆盖整个黄晔裂谷２００口人工井（包括少部分探井）沉降量的基础上，总结本区二种基本沉降曲线模式。统计出热沉降（Ｓｔ）与初始沉降（Ｓｉ）之比为０．６，依此为约束条件与大陆岩石圈伸展的地球动力学正演模式进行对比，与简单剪切模式预测的热沉降与初始沉降之比值及几何效应更接近。进一步证实黄骅裂谷以简单剪切机制形成的地球动力学模式更合理，这与著名的以纯剪模式形成的北海伸展盆地不同