基于DERF的SD方法预测月降水和极端降水日数

针对动力气候模式对区域或更小空间尺度内的日降水预测技巧偏低的问题,应用最优子集回归 (OSR) 方法对国家气候中心业务化的月动力气候模式 (DERF) 输出的高度场、风场和海平面气压场进行降尺度处理用于降水预测,旨在提高预测准确率。1982—2006年交叉检验结果表明:OSR方法能显著提高降水预测技巧,其中11~40 d改善效果最为显著。在此基础上,应用一步法和两步法两种统计降尺度方法预测极端降水日数,交叉检验结果表明:两种方法均优于随机预测,冬季两步法预测技巧略高于一步法,夏季一步法略优于两步法。综合认为OSR,OSR结合随机天气发生器 (WG) 两种统计降尺度方法对月尺度降水或极端降水日数的预测均具有较高的技巧,可作为短期气候预测的重要参考信息。     

Age of the MGS5 segment of the Milanggouwan stratigraphical section and evolution of the desert environment on a kiloyear scale during the Last Interglacial in China's Salawusu River Valley: Evidence from Rb and Sr contents and ratios

The MGS5 segment of the Milanggouwan stratigraphical section in China's Salawusu River Valley records 8.5 sedimentary cycles consisting of dune sands alternating with fluviolacustrine facies or/and paleosols. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the distribution of Rb and Sr within the segment and paleoecological evidence (fossils), it appears that the observed sedimentation cycles mainly resulted from fluctuations between dry-cold and warm-humid climates, which indicates that the MGS5 segment experienced at least eight cold-dry and nine warm-humid climatic fluctuations. Of these, 12 cold–warm climate fluctuations correspond to DO20–DO25 and stadia 21–26 recorded by the NGRIP ice cores. Another five cold–warm climatic fluctuations that occurred during MGS5e correspond to five substages (5e1–5e5) recorded by the GRIP ice cores from Greenland. This kind of high-frequency climatic fluctuation on a kiloyear scale was mainly subject to variations in the strength of the East Asian winter and summer monsoons.     

青藏高原东北缘囊谦古近纪盆地沉积特征及盆地演化研究

野外露头岩石学与地层学研究表明,青藏高原东北缘囊谦古近纪盆地贡觉组自下而上可分为5个岩性段,它们构成两套由粗变细的沉积序列,主要形成于冲积扇-河流-湖泊-三角洲沉积环境。不同的岩性段具有不同的岩石组合,反映其形成于不同的沉积环境:第一岩性段分布局限,为滨浅湖相沉积;第二岩性段、第四岩性段和第五岩性段形成于近源、快速堆积环境;第三岩性段为面积分布广泛的干旱-炎热气候条件下的河流-湖泊沉积环境产物。由于盆地沉积的不对称性及所处沉积环境的不同,各岩性段在盆地内的出露也不相同,总体反映盆地经历了早期挤压推覆前陆盆地、中期走滑拉分盆地、晚期走滑挤压推覆前陆盆地的演化历史。     

松辽盆地中央坳陷区深部咸水层二氧化碳储存潜力评价及其不确定性分析

地质储存是减少CO2等温室气体向大气中人为排放的有效措施,深部咸水层是优先考虑的地下储存空间之一,准确评价CO2在深部成水层中的储存潜力是进行CO2地质储存研究的重要基础.本次研究以松辽盆地中央坳陷区深部咸水层为例,评价其储存CO2的潜力,并考虑储层物性参数的随机性,进行储存潜力的不确定分析.研究结果表明,中央坳陷区深部咸水层CO2地质储存理论潜力为5.34×10<'11>t,若考虑孔隙度不确定性,则储存潜力的随机分布区间为4.14×10<'11>-5.72×10<'11>t,且大于理论储存潜力值的概率约为58.3%,说明孔隙度的不确定性对储存潜力评价结果影响较大,在实际工程中应重点考虑这一问题.     

榆神矿区榆树湾井田及其邻区主采煤层赋存特征研究

利用榆神矿区榆树湾井田及其邻区钻孔资料,采用趋势分析法研究了2-2煤层厚度及其底板高程变化特征,探讨了煤层赋存特征及其成因。结果表明：2-2煤层由南东向北西赋存高程降低,同时煤层厚度变小;2-2煤层厚度的局部性变化受到盆地微古地貌特征或聚煤期基底沉降幅度的控制：煤层底板次级凹陷部位煤层增厚,次级隆起部位为煤层的次级减薄区,说明古地貌低洼处或盆地基底沉降幅度较大的地区对聚煤有利;榆树湾井田和邻区相比是煤层赋存最好的区域。     

煤田地质钻探中“真烧假脱断”事故的处理

＂真烧假脱断＂事故在煤田地质钻探施工中比较常见,容易误判为钻具脱扣或折断的烧钻事故。该事故多发生在夜班,以零时至凌晨5时为事故的多发时段;事故产生的主要原因是钻具接箍密封不严,水龙头堵塞,泥浆泵故障和其它因素引起的泥浆不能正常输送到孔底而产生。针对事故的特点,在实践中总结出＂存疑求原、解释合理、逐一破劲、砸反结合＂的处理原则和＂稳、准、静、决＂的处理步骤。郏县王集勘探区某孔和登封某勘探区某孔的处理结果表明,该处理原则和步骤切实可行,对指导同类事故的处理有一定的借鉴意义。     

江西气候生态产品价值实现的探索与思考

江西省气象部门针对气候生态产品价值实现开展了许多探索,积累了一系列的先进经验。文中从江西气候生态产品价值实现途径、效益、政策等方面进行思考和分析,认为政策先行营造制度环境、创建品牌实现气候价值、试点示范稳步实践创新和搭建平台培育价值理念等手段为挖掘气候好资源做好“两山”转化工作提供了有力支撑。针对发现的问题,提出了建议：理念创新,将气候资源价值转化固化于制;机制创新,用制度保护气候资源价值实现;载体创新,创品牌实现气候生态产品价值。     

Groundwater management by riverbank filtration and an infiltration channel: the case of Obrenovac, Serbia

The Vi? Bare groundwater source is used to supply water to the population and industry of Obrenovac, one of the municipalities of Belgrade (the capital of Serbia). It is a typical riverbank filtration site; exploitation is performed through 30 drilled wells and two radial wells located in the meander of the Sava River. The established hydraulic connection between the river and tapped aquifer is so great that the river regime has a dominant influence on the aquifer. As a consequence of this, water-delivery reduction occurs in the dry months (summer–autumn), when the population needs water the most. Based on the data associated with the river’s gauges, precipitation, quantity of pumped water and groundwater-level fluctuation, a simulation of the groundwater regime for non-steady-state flow conditions has been undertaken through a numerical model. To overcome problems of water shortage during the dry season, the possibility of artificial recharge using an infiltration channel, made up of two connected parts, was analyzed. During the dry months, 80 % of the wells receive water partly from the infiltration channel. In this way, possibilities for extracting additional water are created. The application of this concept is discussed.