建筑小区尺度下LID措施前期条件对径流调控效果影响模拟

以西咸新区天福和园住宅小区为研究对象,采用暴雨洪水管理模型（Storm Water Management Model,SWMM）构建含低影响开发（LID）措施调控作用的城市雨洪过程数值模型,模拟分析了不同重现期降雨下LID措施和传统开发情况在不同前期条件下的径流控制及峰值削减效果。结果表明:① LID措施自然状态、半饱和与饱和状态在不同重现期降雨下径流控制率分别为64.3%~83.2%、56.3%~76.5%和48.7~68.1%,与自然状态相比,半饱和与饱和情况径流控制率分别减少了6.7%~9.1%和15.1%~15.8%,且皆随重现期增大径流控制率减少值先增大后减小。②径流峰值分别为23.3~189.4 L/s、25.9~198.4 L/s和28.8~290.7 L/s,与自然状态相比,半饱和与饱和状态径流峰值分别增加了4.5%~20.9%和22.9%~53.4%,表明LID措施在饱和状态下的调控效果远不如自然状态。③相较于传统开发,LID条件下自然状态和半饱和状态对径流峰值削减显著,但饱和情况在降雨重现期20年时径流峰值反而升高,表明LID措施饱和状态在大暴雨情况对下游管网造成更大压力。④在相同前期条件下有LID措施对径流控制率有明显提升。     

赣东北地区早古生代登山岩群弧后盆地火山岩的成因与洋壳演化

由于早古生代微古化石群的发现（薛重生等,１９９５）,赣东北广丰－上饶地区的登山岩群被划归下古生界,本文介绍了登山岩群中海相火山岩的地质特征,对其中的拔竹岩组,叶家岩组的火山岩岩地球化学特征和成因进行了研究,指出该两岩组火山岩均属岛弧拉斑玄武岩系列,并具向大洋拉斑玄岩过渡的性质,是弧后小洋盆扩张期的产物,两岩组火山岩在火山活动方式,岩浆演化方式和岩浆进化程度上存在与洋壳由早到晚减薄的相应规律变化。     

江西广丰白垩系盆地中两类玄武岩的特征及其与盆地演化的关系

江西广丰－上饶地区沿江绍断裂带和信江断裂带展布有一系列ＮＥ－ＮＥＥ走向的白垩系断陷盆地,在断陷盆地沉积的同时发育了大面积分布的白垩系玄武岩,这套玄武岩被划分为与盆地演化阶段有关的两个喷发亚旋回,即早期的茅店亚旋回和中晚期的塘边亚旋回,分属拉斑玄武岩系列和钾玄岩系列。前者喷发于陆相陆上环境,相对低钾、轻稀土及地幔不相容元素,具接近原始幔源岩浆的Ｓｍ－Ｎｄ、Ｒｂ－Ｓｒ同位素组成,岩浆来源深度较浅（５６ｋｍ）,经历了以橄榄石为主的镁铁矿物的分离结晶作用。后者喷发于陆相水下环境,富钾、轻稀土及地幔不相容元素,具壳幔混源的Ｓｍ－Ｎｄ、Ｒｂ－Ｓｒ同位素组成,岩浆来源较深（８３ｋｍ）,在莫霍面附近混染了壳源物质。这两类玄武岩在成因上的上述差异,主要受控于盆地下应力状态及裂谷深度的变化。     

江绍断裂带晚侏罗世S型酸性火山岩特征及其地质意义

岩石化学、地球化学特征研究结果表明,江绍断裂带赣东北段广丰—上饶地区的晚侏罗世酸性火山岩是中地壳变质沉积源岩改造成因的Ｓ型火山岩．通过横向对比发现,该区火山岩与前人已认识的、江绍断裂带西延部分的相山、东乡Ｓ型酸性火山岩盆地构成了一条沿江绍断裂带展布的Ｓ型酸性火山岩带,这一特殊成因的火山岩及其空间分布规律,很可能是晚侏罗世华夏与扬子两板块陆内碰撞俯冲的结果．     

基于决策树算法的江苏省不同区域短时强降水预报研究

采用2000—2019年13个地级市气象站地面观测站点观测资料以及ERA5再分析资料,基于机器学习中的经典的C4.5算法对江苏省不同区域是否出现短时强降水建立气象要素预报模型。结果表明：基于C4.5算法的决策树预测模型能够较为直观准确的对江苏省不同区域是否发生短时强降水进行预测,并且该决策树模型具有较高的泛化能力。决策树模型利用各区域总样本的前15 a数据样本进行自学习,学习准确率在淮北地区为89.70%,在江淮之间地区为87.89%,在长江以南地区为87.88%,利用各区域剩余5 a样本对该决策树模型的泛化能力进行测试,测试准确率在淮北地区为85.73%,在江淮之间地区为83.39%,在长江以南地区为93.92%。     

长江中上游降水空间分析的SIA方法

1 IntroductionW ith the developm ent of geoscience and interdisciplinary sciences, the precipitation data ofhigher resolution are dem anded by m any studies, especially by the study on the interactionbetw een terrestrial biosphere and atm osphere,and hydr…     

亚洲区域气候模式比较计划的进展

区域气候变化的信息是气候变化影响评估的基础。在发展全球气候模式的同时 ,发展高分辨的区域气候模式是获取区域气候变化信息的重要途径之一。作者介绍了由中国科学院大气物理研究所START全球变化东亚区域研究中心发起和主持 ,有中、美、韩、日和澳大利亚 1 0个研究组参加的亚洲区域气候模式比较计划的目的、意义、工作任务和试验设计等主要内容 ,给出了该国际比较计划第 1阶段 (连续 1 8个月积分 )和第 2阶段( 1 988～ 1 998年连续 1 0年积分 )的初步结果 ,讨论了区域气候模式在亚洲应用中的一些共性问题以及进一步研究的方向。     

基于台站降水资料对不同空间内插方法的比较

如何把离散的气象台站资料通过合适的空间内插方法转变成规则的网格数据,对于气候变化分析和模拟研究具有重要的意义.作者利用中国区域160个常用台站10年降水观测资料为例,分别采用克里格(Kriging)插值、反距离加权、Delaunay三角剖分线性插值、双谐样条(Biharmonic Spline)插值和Cressman客观分析等几种常见的空间内插方法,较为系统地分析和比较了这几种内插方法插值结果之间的异同,对其优缺点和适用范围进行了适当讨论,并采用不同的网格分辨率和影响半径对Cressman客观分析方法做了进一步分析比较.结果表明:在台站分布密集的区域不同空间内插方法之间差异较小,在台站分布稀疏的区域则差异较大;与更加密集的台站观测资料的比较显示,自动调节影响半径的Cressman客观分析方法与双谐样条插值方法误差相对较小.     

A coupled high-resolution hydrodynamic and cellular automata-based evacuation route planning model for pedestrians in flooding scenarios

Flooding is now becoming one of the most frequent and widely distributed natural hazards, with significant losses to human lives and property around the world. Evacuation of pedestrians during flooding events is a crucial factor in flood risk management, in addition to saving people’s lives and increasing time for rescue. The key objective of this work is to propose a shortest evacuation path planning algorithm by considering the evacuable areas and human instability during floods. A shortest route optimization algorithm based on cellular automata is established while using diagonal distance calculation methods in heuristic search algorithms. The Morpeth flood event that occurred in 2008 in the UK is used as a case study, and a highly accurate and efficient 2D hydrodynamic model is adopted to discuss the flood characteristics in flood plains. Two flood hazard assessment approaches [i.e., empirical and mechanics-based and experimental calibrated (M&E)] are chosen to study human instability. A comprehensive analysis shows that extreme events are better identified with mechanics-based and experimental calibration methods than with an empirical method. The result of M&E is used as the initial condition for the Morpeth evacuation scenario. Evacuation path planning in Morpeth shows that this algorithm can realize shortest route planning with multiple starting points and ending points at the microscale. These findings are of significance for flood risk management and emergency evacuation research.

     

Co-varying temperatures at 200 hPa over the Earth’s three poles

The Earth’s three poles,the North Pole,South Pole,and Third Pole(i.e.,the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings),hold the largest amount of fresh water on Earth as glaciers,sea ice,and snow.They are sensitive to climate change.However,the linkages between climate variations of the three poles,particularly between the South Pole and Third Pole,remain largely unknown.The temperatures at 200 hPa over the three poles are the highest in the summer and are less affected by surface conditions,which could reflect large-scale dynamic linkages.Temperatures at 200 hPa peak the three poles during their respective hemispheric summer and exhibit in-phase variations on interdecadal timescales(10–100 years).The 200 hPa temperatures over the North Pole and South Pole were significantly correlated with the Brewer-Dobson circulation(BDC),which transports stratospheric ozone poleward,heating the air at 200 hPa.Tropopause warming over the Third Pole was found to enhance the poleward BDC,particularly to the South Pole,linking the Third Pole’s climate to the other two poles.Additionally,the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)also exhibits links with the 200 hPa temperatures of the three poles.