Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

辽宁省“十五”数字化地磁数据分析系统

依据台站“十五”数字化地磁工作需求,结合地磁学科组运行管理的相关技术要求,研发辽宁省“十五”数字化地磁数据分析系统.该软件采用IDL作为开发语言,Oracle 10g数据库管理数据,主要包含用户管理模块、日志管理模块和数据管理模块3部分,具备数据实时处理、快速成像、操作简便、安全稳定等特点,可以有效解决目前台站地磁数据...     

差分VLBI测量的一种实现方案

差分VLBI通过交替观测目标天体和参考天体,将共同的误差因素从观测量中扣除,能够实现高精度的相对定位,因而在深空探测中有重要作用。然而,差分VLBI高精度的实现要求目标天体和参考天体的角距很近,这大大限制了其应用。讨论设计了差分VLBI测量的一种实现方案,利用多颗参考源的观测内插出目标源的非几何时延修正,放宽了对目标源和参考源的角距限制。该方案在S波段对目标源非几何时延的修正精度可以达到1 ns水平。     

The potential of contribution of mangrove-derived organic matter in intertidal sediments as a proxy of mangrove development in the northern Beibu Gulf

University of Maryland, College Park     

煤层冲刷带预测方法评述

介绍了沉积分析法、矿井物探法以及地质统计法三种煤层冲刷带预测方法.实例证明,根据煤矿生产的具体情况,选择一种或综合运用几种方法,能较好地预测冲刷带的位置和范围.     

The first field-based descriptions of pumping-induced saltwater intrusion and upconing

Development of the ideas about the equilibrium between freshwater and saline water has received considerable attention in the literature, but little has been written so far about the earliest scientific works about well salinization. Based on a review of the literature from the second half of the 19th century and the early 20th century, this historical note explores how insights into groundwater abstraction and saltwater intrusion developed, and examples of the earliest field studies are provided. Fundamental research was driven by the need for increasing water supply, but the progress of science did not lead to sustainable management practices everywhere. Research outcomes were shared between scientists of different countries, marking the beginning of coastal hydrogeology as a scientific specialization in the first decade of the 20th century.     

Changes of Warmer Winter and Winter Temperature over China During 1956-2005

 A reasonable warmer winter index (IWWI) in the framework of the three equiprobability categories (i.e. warmer, normal and colder categories) is proposed based on the winter temperature data observed at 565 stations in China during 1956-2005, where IWWI is defined as the ratio of the station number of warmer category over the total number of stations. The results suggest that the trend of IWWI was consistent with that of the winter temperature on decadal time scale, and their rates of change were 10%/10 a and 0.4 ℃/10 a, respectively. It is found that only 13 warmer winter events in total were detected by IWWI over the past 50 years, and 85% of them occurred after 1986.     

商丹断裂带东段基性岩、超基性岩中的铁铬镍资源潜力预测

对商丹断裂带东段基性-超基性岩带（体）及其中的铁、铬等矿化特征作了概述,在岩带中圈出了A、B、C、D四个基性-超基性岩体集中区,对该带中铁铬镍等矿产资源潜力作了地质预测,认为该基性-超基性岩带是岩浆型铁、铬、镍等矿产的良好找矿远景区,提出了下步找矿工作思路、方法手段的建议.     

青藏高原东北缘寺口子盆地新生代沉积演化及其构造意义

宁夏固原寺口子盆地发育巨厚的新生代地层,这些地层记录了青藏高原东北部的沉积演化特征和构造演变历史。根据剖面沉积物粒度特征、沉积结构和构造、沉积层序,识别出20种岩相、5种沉积相类型。结合前人对寺口子剖面的古地磁测年,分析研究盆地的沉积演化特征以及对构造的响应表明:20.1 Ma盆地以缓慢的坳陷沉降开始演化,直至1.2 Ma遭受破坏。在此期间青藏高原东北部经历了6.4 Ma、4.6 Ma和1.2 Ma这3次明显的构造挤压隆升运动,其中约6.4 Ma的构造运动是青藏高原向东北部扩展首次影响到海原—六盘山断裂以东地区。从盆地的形成和沉积演化过程来看,马东山山前断裂的逆冲推覆,导致了寺口子盆地的强烈变形和构造降升,并且最终成为青藏高原的最新组成部分。     

橄榄岩中尖晶石的O同位素继承性与晶体结构转换

应用增量法计算的矿物对O同位素分馏曲线，得到正尖晶石-矿物对O同位素温度高于尖晶石在地幔中的熔点，而用反尖晶石-矿物对计算的O同位素温度低于尖晶石的熔点，较为合理。因此，地幔橄榄岩中镁铝尖晶石的O同位素组成可能继承了其母体反尖晶石特征，即使反结构尖晶石在发生相变作用变成正结构尖晶石时未发生O同位素再平衡。