Uncertainty assessment for watershed water quality modeling: A Probabilistic Collocation Method based approach

Watershed water quality models are increasingly used in management. However, simulations by such complex models often involve significant uncertainty, especially those for non-conventional pollutants which are often poorly monitored. This study first proposed an integrated framework for watershed water quality modeling. Within this framework, Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) was then applied to a WARMF model of diazinon pollution to assess the modeling uncertainty. Based on PCM, a global sensitivity analysis method named PCM-VD (VD stands for variance decomposition) was also developed, which quantifies variance contribution of all uncertain parameters. The study results validated the applicability of PCM and PCM-VD to the WARMF model. The PCM-based approach is much more efficient, regarding computational time, than conventional Monte Carlo methods. It has also been demonstrated that analysis using the PCM-based approach could provide insights into data collection, model structure improvement and management practices. It was concluded that the PCM-based approach could play an important role in watershed water quality modeling, as an alternative to conventional Monte Carlo methods to account for parametric uncertainty and uncertainty propagation.     

Empirical Formula of Shear Strength of Rock Fractures Based on 3D Morphology Parameters

The prime objective of this work is to provide a reference to predict the peak shear strength of rock fractures. The paper studied some shear properties of rock fractures and proposed an empirical formula for the peak shear strength of rock fractures based on 3D morphology parameters. The rock fractures were induced in cylindrical sandstone and marble specimens by means of indirect tension. A rock direct shear apparatus (RDS-200) was adopted to conduct direct shear tests on five groups of rock fractures under different levels of normal load. Before the direct shear test, 3D morphology parameters of rock fracture surfaces were obtained using a 3D optical scanner. By analyses of direct shear test data, the relationships between peak shear strength, peak shear displacement, peak dilatancy angle, residual friction coefficient and peak normal stress were found. According to the evolution trends of peak shear strength and peak dilatancy angle along with the normal stress, an empirical formula was proposed to predict the peak shear strength of rock fractures in both sliding and cutting failure modes considering the 3D morphology parameters of rock fracture surfaces. The empirical formula could be commonly used for different types (sandstone and marble) and grain sizes (powder-grained, fine-grained, medium-grained and coarse-grained) of rock fractures.     

Annual and interannual variations of large-scale circulation over the tropics as revealed from OLR data

In this study, the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data of eight years have been used to investigate the annual and interannual variations of large-scale circulation over the tropics. The results of EOF analysis indicate that the first three eigenvectors reflect the essential features in OLR annual variation. However, they contribute little to the interannual change. In comparison, the fourth to the sixth components have very large year-to-year variations. The pronounced anomalies are located over the tropics with east-west dipole pattern. It implies that ENSO events are related closely to the variation of the Walker circulation.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis>-alkanol paleoclimate records in two peat deposits: a comparative study of the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China

A number of studies have revealed that the climate in the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China is sensitive to postglacial changes. Unfortunately, the link of the past climate evolution between the two regions is not well understood. In this study, two cores are analyzed to determine this link directly. The high-resolution n-alkanol distribution patterns from two typical peat sequences covering the past 16,000 cal years in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China, respectively, are closely examined by gas chromatograph–mass spectrometry analysis. In combination with other palaeoclimatic proxies, it is proposed that the n-alkanol average chain length and (C₂₂ + C₂₄)/(C₂₆ + C₂₈) ratio could reflect past climate changes in the two peat sequences. The n-alkanol proxies reveal several climatic intervals in the period from the last deglaciation through the Holocene. A comparison of n-alkanol records between the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China indicates that the start and end of the warm Holocene Optimum differed at the two locations. The spatially asynchronous pattern of climatic change is possibly a result of different responses to change in solar radiation. The evolution of the Holocene paleoclimate is more consistent with changes in Northern Hemisphere solar radiation in Northeast China than on the Tibetan Plateau. The Holocene Optimum began and terminated earlier in Northeast China than in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Thus, the two n-alkanol proxies provide valuable insights into the regional Holocene climate and local environmental conditions.     

A study of the factors influencing the occurrence of landslides in the Wushan area

Due to the complex natural geological conditions, many slope-related geological hazards occur in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China. This study focuses on the characteristics of landslide development and their underlying mechanisms in this area. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine the characteristics of landslide development in the Wushan area, including the landslide distribution as a function of the elevation, slope, landslide material composition, scale, lithology, boundary conditions, instability mechanism, stratigraphic age, attitude, and sliding direction. The mechanisms of slope instability and the effect on the occurrence of landslides are analyzed. This study provides important reference material for landslide research in the Three Gorges Reservoir area and similar stratigraphic areas.     

The impact of over 100 years of wildfires on mercury levels and accumulation rates in two lakes in southern California,USA

In southern California, USA, wildfires may be an important source of mercury (Hg) to local watersheds. Hg levels and Hg accumulation rates were investigated in dated sediment cores from two southern California lakes, Big Bear Lake and Crystal Lake, located approximately 40-km apart. Between 1895 and 2006, fires were routinely minimized or suppressed around Big Bear Lake, while fires regularly subsumed the forest surrounding Crystal Lake. Mean Hg concentrations and mean Hg accumulation rates were significantly higher in Crystal Lake sediments compared to Big Bear Lake sediments (Hg levels: Crystal Lake 220 ± 93 ng g⁻¹, Big Bear Lake 92 ± 26 ng g⁻¹; Hg accumulation: Crystal Lake 790 ± 1,200 μg m⁻² year⁻¹, Big Bear 240 ± 54 μg m⁻² year⁻¹). In Crystal Lake, the ratio between post-1965 and pre-1865 Hg concentrations was 1.1, and several spikes in Hg levels occurred between 1910 and 1985. Given the remote location of the lake, the proximity of fires, and the lack of point sources within the region, these results suggested wildfires (rather than industrial sources) were a continuous source of Hg to Crystal Lake over the last 150 years.     

Redox Condition,Nature and Tectono-magmatic Environment of Granitoids and Granite gneisses from the Karbi Anglong Hills,Northeast India: Constraints from Magnetic Susceptibility and Biotite Geochemistry

The Karbi Anglong hills (erstwhile Mikir hills) in northeast India are detached and separated from the Meghalaya plateau by a NW-SE trending Kopili rift. The Karbi Anglong hills granitoids (KAHG) and its granite gneissic variants belong to Cambrian plutons formed during Pan-African orogenic cycle, which commonly intrude the basement granite gneisses and Shillong Group metasediments. The KAHG can be broadly classified into three major granitoid facies viz., coarse grained porphyritic granitoid, medium grained massive non-porphyritic granitoid, and granite gneiss, which share a common mineral assemblage of plagioclase-K-feldspar-quartz-biotite±hornblende-apatite-titanite-zircon-magnetite but differ greatly in mineral proportion and texture. Modal mineralogy of KAHG, granite gneiss and basement granite gneiss largely represents monzogranite and syenogranite. The magnetic susceptibility (MS) of the KAHG, granite gneiss and basement granite gneiss varies widely between 0.11×10^-3 and 43.144×10^-3 SI units, corresponding to ilmenite series (<3×10^-3 SI; reduced type) and magnetite series (>3×10^-3 SI; oxidized type) of granitoids respectively. The observed MS variations are most likely intrinsic to heterogeneous source regions, modal variations of orthomagnetic and ferromagnetic minerals, and tectonothermal and deformational processes that acted upon these rocks. The primary and re-equilibrated compositions of biotites from the KAHG, granite gneiss and basement granite gneiss suggest calcalkaline, metaluminous (I-type) nature of felsic host magma formed in a subduction or post-collisional to peraluminous (S-type) host magma originated in syn-collisional tectonic settings, which were evolved and stabilized between FMQ and NNO buffers typically corresponding to reducing and oxidising magma environments respectively.     

Analysis of Seasonal Variability of Vegetation and Methane Concentration over India using SPOT-VEGETATION and ENVISAT-SCIAMACHY Data

This paper highlights the spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric columnar methane (CH₄) concentration over India and its correlation with the terrestrial vegetation dynamics. SCanning IMaging Absorption spectrometer for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) on board ENVIronmental SATellite (ENVISAT) data product (0.5° × 0.5°) was used to analyze the atmospheric CH₄ concentration. Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre (SPOT)-VEGETATION sensor’s Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) product, aggregated at 0.5° × 0.5° grid level for the same period (2004 and 2005), was used to correlate the with CH₄ concentration. Analysis showed mean monthly CH₄ concentration during the Kharif season varied from 1,704 parts per billion volume (ppbv) to 1,780 ppbv with the lowest value in May and the highest value in September. Correspondingly, mean NDVI varied from 0.28 (May) to 0.53 (September). Analysis of correlation between CH₄ concentration and NDVI values over India showed positive correlation (r = 0.76; n = 6) in Kharif season. Further analysis using land cover information showed characteristic low correlation in natural vegetation region and high correlation in agricultural area. Grids, particularly falling in the Indo-Gangetic Plains showed positive correlation. This could be attributed to the rice crop which is grown as a predominant crop during this period. The CH₄ concentration pattern matched well with growth pattern of rice with the highest concentration coinciding with the peak growth period of crop in the September. Characteristically low correlation was observed (r = 0.1; n = 6) in deserts of Rajasthan and forested Himalayan ecosystem. Thus, the paper emphasizes the synergistic use of different satellite based data in understanding the variability of atmospheric CH₄ concentration in relation to vegetation.     

Temporal variations in the current structure and volume transport of the Coastal Oyashio revealed by direct current measurement

Direct current measurements by a shipboard and bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler and concurrent hydrographic observations with a CTD were conducted off southeastern Hokkaido, Japan, between January and May 2005 to reveal temporal variations in the current structure and volume transport of the Coastal Oyashio (CO). The CO, which has a baroclinic jet structure with southwestward speeds exceeding 90 cm s^?1 and a width of 7–8 km, was associated with a surface-to-bottom density front and was formed on the offshore side of the shelf break. The volume transport of CO (T _CO) was estimated by integrating the fluxes of lower-density water that was trapped against the coast along the density front represented by the 26.2 σ _θ isopycnal line. This transport decreased monotonously from 0.79 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s^?1) in January to 0.21 Sv in March and subsequently to 0.12 Sv in May, possibly due to the decay of the East Sakhalin Current Water in the Okhotsk Sea. Accompanied by a decrease in T _CO, the location of the jet structure associated with the density front moved toward the coast while the maximum speed of the jet decreased and the tilt of the front became more horizontal. Consequently, more saline offshore Oyashio water flowed into the deep part of the shelf area, and the current structure altered from relatively barotropic in winter to baroclinic in spring. This study is the first to estimate the observed volume transport of the CO from direct current measurements.     

Recent increase in surface fCO<Subscript>2</Subscript> in the western subtropical North Pacific

We observed unusually high levels (> 440 μatm) of carbon dioxide fugacity (fCO₂) in surface seawater in the western subtropical North Pacific, the area where Subtropical Mode Water is formed, during summer 2015. The NOAA Kuroshio Extension Observatory moored buoy located in this region also measured high CO₂ values, up to 500 μatm during this period. These high sea surface fCO₂ (fCO_2SW) values are explained by much higher normalized total dissolved inorganic carbon and slightly higher normalized total alkalinity concentrations in this region compared to the equatorial Pacific. Moreover, these values are much higher than the climatological CO₂ values, even considering increasing atmospheric CO₂, indicating a recent large increase in sea surface CO₂ concentrations. A large seasonal change in sea surface temperature contributed to higher surface fCO_2SW in the summer of 2015.