Long-term variability of temperature and precipitation in the Czech Lands: an attribution analysis

Among the key problems associated with the study of climate variability and its evolution are identification of the factors responsible for observed changes and quantification of their effects. Here, correlation and regression analysis are employed to detect the imprints of selected natural forcings (solar and volcanic activity) and anthropogenic influences (amounts of greenhouse gases—GHGs—and atmospheric aerosols), as well as prominent climatic oscillations (Southern Oscillation—SO, North Atlantic Oscillation—NAO, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation—AMO) in the Czech annual and monthly temperature and precipitation series for the 1866–2010 period. We show that the long-term evolution of Czech temperature change is dominated by the influence of an increasing concentration of anthropogenic GHGs (explaining most of the observed warming), combined with substantially lower, and generally statistically insignificant, contributions from the sulphate aerosols (mild cooling) and variations in solar activity (mild warming), but with no distinct imprint from major volcanic eruptions. A significant portion of the observed short-term temperature variability can be linked to the influence of NAO. The contributions from SO and AMO are substantially weaker in magnitude. Aside from NAO, no major influence from the explanatory variables was found in the precipitation series. Nonlinear forms of regression were used to test for nonlinear interactions between the predictors and temperature/precipitation; the nonlinearities disclosed were, however, very weak, or not detectable at all. In addition to the outcomes of the attribution analysis for the Czech series, results for European and global land temperatures are also shown and discussed.     

Geochemical characteristics of the high- and low-Ti basaltic rocks from the uplifted shoulder of the Ohře (Eger) Rift,Western Bohemia

High-Ti melanephelinite (3.8–5.9 wt% TiO₂), medium-Ti (phono)tephrite (2.7–3.1 wt% TiO₂), and low-Ti olivine melanephelinite/basanite (1.9–2.3 wt.% TiO₂) are subordinate rock types in the central European Cenozoic Volcanic Province. A contrasting melanephelinite to (phono)tephrite series occurs in the Lou?ná–Oberwiesenthal Volcanic Centre (37–28 Ma) and also as satellite volcanic bodies (26–12 Ma) together with olivine melanephelinite/basanite (17–20 Ma) on the southwestern periphery of the Kru?né hory mountains (Erzgebirge). The volcanic rocks intrude the Variscan basement of the uplifted shoulder of the Oh?e/Eger Rift in the Kru?né hory mountains of the Bohemian Massif. Low Mg# (44–59) and Cr, Ni contents and enrichment of LILE, Zr, Hf, Nb, Ta, U, Th and LREE in the high-Ti melanephelinites contrast with the composition of primitive low-Ti olivine melanephelinites/basanites displaying high Mg# (63–74) and high contents of compatible elements. The high-Ti melanephelinites reveal a wide range in initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of ca. 0.7034–0.7038 and ε_Nd of 2.4–4.9. The low-Ti melanephelinites show an overlapping range of initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of ca. 0.7035–0.7036 and ε_Nd of 4.3–5.5. The large variation in initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios at similar ε_Nd values in those rock types is interpreted as evidence for melting of metasomatized lithospheric mantle sources comprising K-bearing phases with radiogenic Sr. Modification of the olivine-free alkali basaltic magmas by differentiation or crustal contamination could give rise to the medium-Ti (phono) tephrites. The initial isotope ratios of all samples are consistent with HIMU-mantle sources and contributions from lithospheric mantle. The olivine-free melanephelinitic rocks often contain alkali pyroxenite–ijolite xenoliths with initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of ca. 0.7036 and ε_Nd of 3.0. We interpret these xenoliths as samples of an intra-crustal alkali complex derived from similar mantle sources as those for the basaltic volcanic rocks.     

Atmospheric thermal structure of a sample of M type giants. II

We present a study of atmospheric thermal structure of nine MIII giants located in the zone of a star formation region in the stellar Galactic bar. Vibrational temperatures of the layers of formation of δ, π and ε TiO molecular band systems have been determined spectroscopically. These temperatures have been associated to optical depths by use of an appropriate model atmospheres and in view of several T _eff calibration scales. Significant temperature gradient in the upper atmospheric layers has been established.     

Changing local finances in the Czech Republic — half way over?

Far-reaching changes launched in 1989, aimed mainly at establishing a democratic society and market economy have clearly brought many positive results. However, there is also a negative side to these progressive changes both in economic and social spheres. There are many difficult tasks ahead such as the reestablishment of a democratic and economically effective local government which will be able to fulfil contemporary needs and requirements. The aim of this report is not to describe all the changes occurring in local government or to review different opinions about what should be done, but rather to concentrate on one of the most important issues facing this body of government, that of financial reform. Special attention will be given to the economic performance of municipalities with regard to their population size. It will be argued that data from local budgets can reveal important features about the performance of local and regional economies which cannot be obtained in any other way.     

Do some shallow earthquakes have a tensile source component?

The laboratory tests carried out in studying shear and tensile seismogenic displacements occurring in compressed samples, led us to search for earthquakes with a tensile source component. To determine this component in the seismic focus, a special procedure based on the construction of radiation patterns of the combined shear-tensile type is introduced.The criteria for selecting the events produced by the combined source mechanism are listed, and their limitations are mentioned. From the seismic zones with good azimuthal distribution of stations in the world seismic network nine earthquakes which occurred in the 6-year period 1976–1981 were analyzed; for these events better agreement of the observed and theoretical patterns was found for the combined shear-tensile source mechanism than for the pure double-couple mechanism. However, the share of the tensile component was always, found to be relatively small, ranging from 1 to 13 percent of the shear component. The comparison of the two solutions (double-couple vs. combined shear/tensile) is based on the first onset signs statistics.The results obtained indicate that tensile fracturing does not play a substantial role in the total amount of released seismic energy; on the orther hand, it is expected to be more important in the creation and development of focal zone morphology from both the instantaneous and long-term point of view.     

Seismic events with non-shear component: I. Shallow earthquakes with a possible tensile source component

The concept of seismicity of fast tensile fracturing is introduced and supported by the results of shear and of combined shear and tensile displacements along a loaded stress concentrator. The seismicity of tensile fracturing is demonstrated by means of acoustic (elastic) signals obtained during tensile fracturing in physical models under load; the basic physical relations between the parameters characterizing the loaded medium, load conditions, shear and tensile displacements, and release of acoustic energy are presented. For determining the tensile-source component in earthquakes a procedure based on the construction of radiation patterns is suggested and submitted for discussion. The criteria for selecting earthquakes with possible shear-tensile source mechanisms are listed and discussed. The existence of such a combined seismic source is sought in two shallow earthquakes which occurred in southern Iran in March 1977. In general, the paper should be regarded as a proposal to utilize the radiation characteristics of a seismic source—with all their insufficiencies—as a quick and simple tool for seeking combined shear and tensile mechanisms of seismic energy release.     

Risk occurrences of damaging frosts during the growing season of vegetables in the Elbe River lowland,the Czech Republic

This study has, for the first time, analysed in detail the risk occurrences of the last spring frost, first fall frost and the length of the frost-free period during the growing season of vegetable crops at a high horizontal resolution of 10 km in the Elbe River lowland in the Czech Republic. The daily minimum air temperature from 116 grid points throughout the studied area for the period 1961–2011 was used. The daily values of minimum air temperature ranges of 0 to ?1.1 °C, ?1.2 to ?2.2 °C and below ?2.2 °C were considered to constitute mild, moderate and severe frost intensities, respectively. Firstly, the spatiotemporal variability of the date of the last spring frost, the date of the first fall frost and the length of the frost-free period in the Elbe River lowland is provided. Secondly, the estimation of the probability of a later date in the spring and an earlier date in the fall for various severe frost events and the length of the frost-free period is determined. Third, the changes in the timing of the last and first frosts of the three severities, as well as the length of the frost-free period, are evaluated. From 1961 to 2011, the Elbe River lowland has experienced a decrease in the number of frost days, while the length of the frost-free period between the last spring frost and the first fall frost has increased. The temporal evolution of the frost-free period anomalies displays two distinct periods: a shortening of the frost-free period in the 1960s and an intensified lengthening of the frost-free period since the 1980s. Whereas the latest spring frost has ended on an earlier date across the Elbe River lowland, the first frost date in the fall has generally been delayed to a later date. The dates of the last spring frost have advanced by ?0.21 days per year on average. The fall dates are delayed up to 0.18 days per year, whereas the frost-free period is lengthening by up to 0.39 days per year on average. However, regional frost series suggests that the frost-free period exhibits a large amount of inter-annual variability. In terms of the growth of field vegetables, a late spring frost remains a risk factor, but the degree of risk has decreased. There is a 25 % chance of the occurrence of dangerous spring frosts during the planting of field vegetables after 3rd May, but after 15th May, the risk is only 10 %.     

Expanding earth hypothesis and the Earth's gravitational potential energy

Summary The gravitational potential energy of the actual Earth has now been estimated at –2·485 × 10³² J. Three density models of the hypothetical Earth before the hypothetical expansion have been adopted for estimating the internal energy necessary for expanding: 7 × 10³¹ J. No dynamical evidence exists for the origin of this energy in the last 450 × 10⁶ y. The hypothetical increase in the Earth's mass M of about 0·4 M since 2 × 10⁸ y B.P. required for a dynamical balance has also no support in the paleodynamics of the Earth-Moon-Sun system since the M. Ordovician.Dedicated to the Memory of K. P     

Joint interpretation ofLg andSa waves based on spectral amplitudes of higher love wave modes

Summary The joint interpretation of Lg and Sa waves has been carried out on the basis of the first higher mode of Love waves. A characteristic feature of the spectral amplitude curve for the first higher mode is the existence of two pronounced maxima separated by a gap. The short-period maximum may be related to the Lg wave, the long-period to the Sa wave.