A new methodology for measuring coastline recession using buffering and non‐linear least squares estimation

Coastline recession is one of the best indicators of coastal erosion. Three methods for computing coastline recession – the baseline approach, the dynamic segmentation approach and the area‐based approach – have been used, each of which has one or more drawbacks. To overcome these problems, a new methodology for measuring coastline recession is proposed, using buffering and non‐linear least squares estimation. The proposed method was compared with the three existing methods with respect to two simulated cases and two real coastlines. Test results confirmed that the new method is more reliable than the three other methods, all of which are susceptible to variability of recession, scale, number of line segments, length of coastlines and direction of the baseline. The proposed method, incorporating two physically meaningful values – magnitude and variability of coastline recession according to the mean and standard deviation of coastline offsets, respectively – presents itself as an effective alternative method of assessing coastline recession.     

The temporal hierarchy of shelters: a hierarchical location model for earthquake-shelter planning

The problem of emergency facility location is a critical component in evacuation planning. The emergence of geographic information systems (GIS) has provided a useful operational platform to assist this issue. A previously overlooked facet is the consideration of a hierarchical structure in the placement of emergency shelters. Due to the fact that survivors' needs change over time during post-disaster evacuations, shelters have now been categorized on a temporal scale based on their functions at different evacuation phases. This article proposes a three-level hierarchical location model for optimizing the placement of earthquake shelters by taking into account this temporal variance. The article not only scrutinizes the modeling procedure but also implements the model in a planning area with many real-world details. Based on the optimization results derived from a GIS context, we have found that the quality of the earthquake response procedure is not only dependent on the placement strategy of shelters, but more importantly on the financial constraints imposed on the planning and construction of these shelters. A discussion has been proposed to balance the trade-off between budget planning and evacuation efficiency. As the first attempt to model the hierarchical configuration of emergency shelters with specific focus on evacuees' escalating sheltering demands, this article will be of great significance in helping policy makers consider both the spatial and financial aspects of the strategic placement of emergency shelters.     

基于序列参数的水库地震类型综合判定研究

收集整理了我国大陆东部地区44 组水库地震序列,其中震群型32 组,主余型和孤立型12 组。分别计算了44 组序列的h 值、b 值、归一化熵值K、能量均匀度U、地震发生方式参数ρ 等5 个序列参数。在95% 的置信水平下,对每一参数分震群型、主余型加孤立型两大类进行差异性检验。结果表明,h、U、ρ 值对水库地震序列类型的分类能力不强;b 值平均值虽存在一定差异,但数值分布范围有部分重叠;K 值差异性显著,K = 0. 35 可作为区分震群型与主余型加孤立型两类水库地震序列的判别指标。在此基础上,建立以上述5 个参数为自变量的Fisher 判别函数,用于序列类型的综合判定。结果显示,所有数据全部参与建立判别函数并进行回溯性内符判别检验,识别正确率为97. 6% ;利用32 组序列参数参与判别函数建立,另外10 组进行外推检验,识别正确率为100% ,表明上述综合判别方法具有较高的水库地震序列分类能力。     

2013 年3 月27 日台湾南投MW 6. 0 地震震源机制解与发震构造研究

采用基于近远震波形的CAPjoint 方法,对2013 年3 月27 日台湾南投MW6. 0 地震分别进行了单独反演和联合反演,获得了各自的震源机制解及震源深度。其中,联合反演所得的最优双力偶机制解参数为,节面Ⅰ:方位角0°,倾角30°,滑动角78°;节面Ⅱ:方位角193°,倾角60°,滑动角96°;震源深度18km。为了验证联合反演的有效性和可靠性,采用由重抽样理论发展而来的Bootstrap 方法,对近远震数据分别进行了重采样,并对其单独反演和联合反演所得的参数进行了统计,验证了联合反演的有效性及稳定性,并发现远震反演震源深度的结果一定程度上受台站分布的影响,若要获得精确的震源深度则需要方位角分布较好的远震台站记录。根据前人对集集地震及车笼埔断层的研究成果以及南投地震的发震断层性质接近车笼埔断层的认识,推测此次地震可能发生在车笼埔断层上。     

Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τc and Pd method for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning （EEW） systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τe and Pa methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The Pd value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.     

基于COSMIC掩星数据分析中低纬度地区电子密度分布变化

利用COSMIC掩星2009年电子密度剖面数据,筛选数据进行网格划分,网格内数据统计平均,基于球谐函数计算模型值,分析电离层中低纬度地区最大电子密度的地磁季节变化、昼夜测分布相对变化,及地磁活动对电子密度的分布影响.结果表明,最大电子密度昼测值明显高于夜测值,在中纬度部分区域增大明显.电子密度昼测值在地磁活动期间高度150-550 km中低纬度范围为正相扰动,随纬度变化存在区域差异,随高度增加,扰动加强.     

近地等离子体片中磁场扰动和离子速度扰动的统计研究

利用THEMIS THC卫星观测数据统计分析近地等离子体片中磁场扰动和等离子体整体流的速度扰动的关系,研究Alfven波动的活动性.研究结果表明:1)等离子体整体流的速度扰动幅度依赖于平均速度的大小,速度扰动幅度随平均速度的增加而增加;2)速度扰动幅度与磁场扰动幅度存在较强的正相关性;3)磁场扰动幅度与AE指数密切相关,磁场扰动幅度随着AE指数增加而增加,而速度扰动幅度与AE指数之间没有明显的相关性;4)Alfven比与AE指数的相关系数较小,但能够看出Alfven比随着AE指数增加而减小的趋势;5)速度扰动幅度和磁场扰动幅度与尾向距离及距中性片距离的关系不明显.     

Fine particulate organic matter transport dynamics in a small Coastal Plain stream: influence of hydrology and channel morphology

Fine particulate organic matter (FPOM) represents a major component of stream organic matter budgets, and its dynamics greatly affect the productivity and metabolism of a stream community. FPOM transport dynamics has been well documented in high-gradient streams with rocky substrates, but information from low-gradient, sandy-bottom streams has been lacking. We estimated FPOM retention patterns in Payne Creek, a 2nd order Coastal Plain stream (USA), under naturally varying hydraulic conditions (discharge and velocity). Corn pollen, as an FPOM analogue, was released along with a conservative solute tracer and the particle retention coefficient (k _p) was calculated by fitting the ratio of total pollen remaining in the water column against the longitudinal transport distance to an exponential decay model. Pollen k _p (n = 4) ranged from 0.034 to 0.214 /m, and particle transport distance (S _p) ranged from 4.7 to 29.7 m. The S _p measured in Payne Creek was in the lowest range of previously reported values, and such rapid particle retention was attributed to the low channel slope and slow current velocity. S _p was significantly correlated to water velocity and the channel friction factor, but not to discharge (Q). Two summer experiments conducted in contiguous stream segments resulted in the shortest (4.7 m) and longest (29.7 m) S _p, despite the similar Q. This was attributed to the segment-scale channel alterations that occurred during the previous winter, which led to very different hydraulic conditions in the two stream segments. In Payne Creek, seasonal changes in hydrology and segment-scale variation in channel morphology were the main factors controlling FPOM transport and retention.     

Accuracy of the half-power bandwidth method with a third-order correction for estimating damping in multi-DOF systems

A third-order correction was recently suggested to improve the accuracy of the half-power bandwidth method in estimating the damping of single DOF systems.This paper analyzes the accuracy of the half-power bandwidth method with the third-order correction in damping estimation for multi-DOF linear systems.Damping ratios in a two-DOF linear system are estimated using its displacement and acceleration frequency response curves,respectively.A wide range of important parameters that characterize the shape of these response curves are taken into account.Results show that the third-order correction may greatly improve the accuracy of the half-power bandwidth method in estimating damping in a two-DOF system.In spite of this,the half-power bandwidth method may significantly overestimate the damping ratios of two-DOF systems in some cases.     

亚失稳阶段雁列断层热场演化的实验研究

寻找地震前兆是国内外地震预报的难点.在实验室开展岩石变形实验,观测相关物理量的演化特征和规律,是前兆探索中重要的基础工作.本文对压性雁列断层进行变形实验,根据应力时间曲线将具有前兆意义的变形阶段分为强偏离线性阶段、亚失稳阶段和失稳阶段,利用红外热像仪记录各个阶段的热场变化,特别是亚失稳阶段的热场表现.研究结果显示:强偏离线性阶段,岩桥区挤压升温;亚失稳阶段,断层带增温,且高温点扩展连通,断层带内侧卸载降温,断层带上的协同化增温和断层带内侧(包含岩桥区)的协同化降温是失稳前的重要信号;失稳阶段,应力释放,标本整体降温,只有断层带因摩擦升温.总之,亚失稳阶段的热场具有明显特征,利于识别出亚失稳态;不同变形阶段、不同构造部位温度变化不同,在寻找与构造活动相关的热异常时,应考虑变形所处的阶段及异常所处的构造部位.