深部热流体上涌对天水强震区深部发震环境形成演化过程的影响作用

通过与肯尼亚Gregory地堑的深部构造的对比分析，本研究了天水强震区深部发震环境的形成演化过程及其主要特征，探讨了深部热流体上涌在该地区深部发震环境形成演化过程中所起的重要作用，为进一步研究该地区前兆形成机理打下基础。     

2001年1月26日高纬磁层顶通量管事件的观测研究

2001年1月26日11:10～11:40UT, ClusterⅡ卫星簇位于午后高纬磁鞘边界层和磁鞘区,此 时行星际磁场Bz为南向. 本文对在此期间观测到的多次磁通量管事件作了详细的研究 ,获得一系列的新发现：（1）高纬磁鞘边界层磁通量管的出现具有准周期性,周期约为78s ,比目前已知的磁层顶向阳面FTE的平均周期（8～11min）小得多. （2）这些通量管都具有 强的核心磁场;其主轴多数在磁场最小变化方向,少数在中间变化方向,有些无法用PAA判 定其方向（需要用电流管PAA确定）,这与卫星穿越通量管的相对路径有关. （3）每个事件 都存在很好的HT参考系,在HT参考系中这些通量管是准定常态结构;所有通量管都沿磁层顶 表面运动,速度方向大体相同,都来自晨侧下方. 通量管的径向尺度为1～2RE, 与通 常的FTE通量管相当. （4）起源于磁层的强能离子大体上沿着管轴方向由磁层向磁鞘运动; 起源于太阳风的热等离子体沿管轴向磁层传输. 通量管为太阳风等离子体向磁层输运和磁层 粒子向行星际空间逃逸提供了通道. （5）每个通量管事件都伴随有晨昏电场的反转,该电 场为对流电场.     

银川台石英摆倾斜仪异常特征及预测指标分析

应用形态法、潮汐因子判别法对银川台石英摆倾斜仪观测资料进行系统分析,拟总结出银川台石英摆倾斜仪观测资料异常特征及其预测指标。分析结果显示:在银川台周边地区400km范围内发生的中强地震前,银川台石英摆倾斜仪观测资料存在明显的异常,同时在2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震、2008年四川汶川8.0级地震前均存在不同程度的异常变化。     

绥棱爆破地震监测与局部场地台阵观测

黑龙江省地震局在绥棱组织了2次人工爆破,目的在于检验黑龙江省地震台网的监测能力和定位精度,并开展相关的地震学和地震工程学研究。为此,在原黑龙江省地震台网的基础上,又架设了一个由六台数字地震仪组成的流动台网,并在爆破点附近建立了一个由多通道强震观测系统和4台强震仪组成的场地影响台阵。本文介绍了这次爆破及现场观测的有关情况,并对结果进行了初步分析。     

The generation and its sealing condition of natural gas in the Tadong area

Focusing on the two natural gas exploration geological problems with abundant source of oil cracking gas in the late stage and the sealing condition of the oil cracking gas reservoir, the kinetics of oil cracking gas and the evaluation parameters of gas cap rock are adopted to the study on the natural gas accumulation conditions in the Tadong area. Both the study on the kinetics of oil cracking gas and the statistical results of reservoir bitumen reveal that the geological formation of oil cracking gas in the Tadong area is located in the top of Cambrian. Two kinds of oil cracking gas geological models at least, namely well Mandong-1’s early rapid generation model (Middle Ordovician-end Silurian) and peak cracking model (with the natural gas conversion rate >90%), namely well Yingnan-2’s two-stage generation model of oil cracking gas, have been set up. The oil cracking gas of Yingnan-2 in the late stage is very significant in the evaluation of natural gas exploration in the Tadong area. The evaluation results of the cap rock show that the microscopic parameters of cap rock from the lower assemblage of Cambrian-Ordovician are better than those from the upper assemblage. The former has strong capillary sealing ability and higher cap rock breakthrough pressure than the upper assemblage, with strong sealing ability, so that natural gas dissipates mainly by diffusion. According to the above investigations, the lower assemblage Cambrian-Ordovician natural gas of Kongquehe slope, Tadong low uplift and Yingjisu depression in the Tadong area prospects well.

     

地震重现时间间隔概率分布函数选择的必要条件

地震重现时间间隔的分布规律研究对于短期和中长期地震预测、地震灾害预防和救援有着重要的理论和实际意义,如果能够确定地震重现时间间隔的概率密度函数(probability density function-pdf),则在统计学的意义上,能够对地震再次发生的概率进行评估和预测.在地震重现时间间隔的pdf研究中,一个核心问题是如何判断某个pdf是否能够有效地描述地震重现时间间隔分布特征.作者提出利用特征地震重现时间间隔数据的变化系数(COV)与其偏度(S),变化系数与其峰度(K)的相关关系对所选择的pdf的适用性进行判别.研究表明,常用的一些概率密度函数(对数正态分布、gamma分布、Weibull分布和指数分布)并不合适作为描述特征地震的重现时间间隔分布的数学模型.     

Evolution of permafrost in China during the last 20 ka

The formation and evolution of permafrost in China during the last 20 ka were reconstructed on the basis of large amount of paleo-permafrost remains and paleo-periglacial evidence, as well as paleo-glacial landforms, paleo-flora and paleofauna records. The results indicate that, during the local Last Glacial Maximum(LLGM) or local Last Permafrost Maximum(LLPMax), the extent of permafrost of China reached 5.3×106-5.4×106 km2, or thrice that of today, but permafrost shrank to only0.80×106-0.85×106 km2, or 50% that of present, during the local Holocene Megathermal Period(LHMP), or the local Last Permafrost Minimum(LLPMin). On the basis of the dating of periglacial remains and their distributive features, the extent of permafrost in China was delineated for the two periods of LLGM(LLPMax) and LHMP(LLPMin), and the evolution of permafrost in China was divided into seven periods as follows:(1) LLGM in Late Pleistocene(ca. 20000 to 13000-10800 a BP)with extensive evidence for the presence of intensive ice-wedge expansion for outlining its LLPMax extent;(2) A period of dramatically changing climate during the early Holocene(10800 to 8500-7000 a BP) when permafrost remained relatively stable but with a general trend of shrinking areal extent;(3) The LHMP in the Mid-Holocene(8500-7000 to 4000-3000 a BP)when permafrost degraded intensively and extensively, and shrank to the LLPMin;(4) Neoglaciation during the late Holocene(4000-3000 to 1000 a BP, when permafrost again expanded;(5) Medieval Warming Period(MWP) in the late Holocene(1000-500 a BP) when permafrost was in a relative decline;(6) Little Ice Age(LIA) in the late Holocene(500-100 a BP), when permafrost relatively expanded, and;(7) Recent warming(during the 20 th century), when permafrost continuously degraded and still is degrading. The paleo-climate, geography and paleopermafrost extents and other features were reconstructed for each of these seven periods.     

山西数字台网震级测定方法研究

震级是表示地震本身大小的一个量度,也是地震的基本参数之一。利用山西数字测震台网2009-2016年ML≥3.5以上宽频带数字地震资料,对近震震级ML、面波震级MS、宽频带面波震级Ms(BB)和矩震级Mw的震级测定方法进行讨论研究和对比,认为新震级标度能发挥宽频带数字地震资料的优越性,有利于资料的交换利用及对外发布。     

基于非确定性分析法的顺层边坡抗震性研究

顺层岩质边坡的抗震性指标大部分都是非确定的,无法用固定阈值衡量。提出基于非确定性分析法的顺层边坡抗震性性能研究,将顺层岩质边坡看作若干个叠加的薄板;运用非确定性分析法计算各个薄板的动力安全系数和动力极限状态方程,并对顺层边坡动力极限状态方程进行求解,可得在地震作用力下顺层边坡动力可靠度指标与顺层边坡失效概率之间的关系;评估地震作用力下顺层边坡整体稳定性,同时综合考量顺岩边坡的最小平均安全系数以及平均失效概率,得出评估结果。实验结果显示,在地震作用力下,顺层边坡坡高、坡角、岩层倾角对顺岩边坡抗震性能影响显著,评估结果与实际结果一致。     

单纯形定位方法在新疆数字地震台网的测定精度分析

地震定位是地震学中最基本的问题之一,现阶段大部分采用基于走时的方法。单纯形定位方法作为一种直接搜索类的方法,在新疆测震台网日常地震目录产出中发挥了重要作用。本文采用数值模拟的方法,利用新疆测震台网现有布局,结合“3400”走时表,分析单纯形定位方法在新疆测震台网的测定精度。研究表明,对于新疆测震台网网内浅源地震,单纯形定位方法能够得出较为精确的震中位置,而得出的网外地震震中位置存在一定偏差;初至折射波对震源深度有一定的控制能力,速度模型的准确性对震源深度和发震时刻的测定影响较大。