Evaluation of the controls affecting the quality of spatial data derived from historical aerial photographs

This paper is concerned with the fundamental controls affecting the quality of data derived from historical aerial photographs typically used in geomorphological studies. A short review is provided of error sources introduced into the photogrammetric workflow. Data‐sets from two case‐studies provided a variety of source data and hence a good opportunity to evaluate the influence of the quality of archival material on the accuracy of coordinated points. Based on the statistical weights assigned to the measurements, precision of the data was estimated a priori, while residuals of independent checkpoints provided an a posteriori measure of data accuracy. Systematic discrepancies between the two values indicated that the routinely used stochastic model was incorrect and overoptimistic. Optimized weighting factors appeared significantly larger than previously used (and accepted) values. A test of repeat measurements explained the large uncertainties associated with the use of natural objects for ground control. This showed that the random errors not only appeared to be much larger than values accepted for appropriately controlled and targeted photogrammetric networks, but also small undetected gross errors were induced through the ‘misidentification’ of points. It is suggested that the effects of such ‘misidentifications’ should be reflected in the stochastic model through selection of more realistic weighting factors of both image and ground measurements. Using the optimized weighting factors, the accuracy of derived data can now be more truly estimated, allowing the suitability of the imagery to be judged before purchase and processing. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Embedding isochronous cells overland flow module into MODFLOW

This study integrates a simple overland flow module (isochronous cells model) with the river module of MODFLOW such that temporal and spatial interactions between stream flow and groundwater can be simulated using net rainfall data of a watershed. The isochronous cells model is an efficient travel time runoff approach based on geographic information system (GIS) that considers both spatial and temporal variations of net rainfall through hill slope of the watershed. This overland module is easily coupled with MODFLOW river routing module. Specifically, the stream flow from the isochronous cells model is directly assigned to both sides of river cells of the MODFLOW model. Such an integration of MODFLOW and isochronous cells model is especially useful in watersheds where river flow data are limited. The feasibility of this integrated model was demonstrated using a case study in the middle and downstream regions of the Yitong River watershed, China. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discrete Element Modeling of Stick-Slip Instability and Induced Microseismicity

Using Particle Flow Code, a discrete element model is presented in this paper that allows direct modeling of stick-slip behavior in pre-existing weak planes such as joints, beddings, and faults. The model is used to simulate a biaxial sliding experiment from literature on a saw-cut specimen of Sierra granite with a single fault. The fault is represented by the smooth-joint contact model. Also, an algorithm is developed to record the stick-slip induced microseismic events along the fault. Once the results compared well with laboratory data, a parametric study was conducted to investigate the evolution of the model’s behavior due to varying factors such as resolution of the model, particle elasticity, fault coefficient of friction, fault stiffness, and normal stress. The results show a decrease in shear strength of the fault in the models with smaller particles, smaller coefficient of friction of the fault, harder fault surroundings, softer faults, and smaller normal stress on the fault. Also, a higher rate of displacement was observed for conditions resulting in smaller shear strength. An increase in b-values was observed by increasing the resolution or decreasing the normal stress on the fault, while b-values were not sensitive to changes in elasticity of the fault or its surrounding region. A larger number of recorded events were observed for the models with finer particles, smaller coefficient of friction of the fault, harder fault surroundings, harder fault, and smaller normal stress on the fault. The results suggest that it is possible for the two ends of a fault to be still while there are patches along the fault undergoing stick-slips. Such local stick-slips seem to provide a softer surrounding for their neighbor patches facilitating their subsequent stick-slips.     

Comparison of risk from pyroclastic density current hazards to critical infrastructure in Mammoth Lakes,California, USA,from a new Inyo craters rhyolite dike eruption versus a dacitic dome eruption on Mammoth Mountain

Renewed volcanic activity near Mammoth Lakes, California, in the form of dome-collapse pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) from either a new eruption at Mammoth Mountain or the Inyo craters would pose a significant hazard to critical infrastructure there. This paper compares the risk from PDC impact hazards upon selected critical infrastructure from: (1) a 100 m tall dacite dome on Mammoth Mountain and (2) three 200 m tall rhyolite domes at the southern end of the Inyo craters. For each scenario, maximum estimated dynamic pressure and velocity from two PDC volumes (10⁶ and 10⁷ m³) are modeled with the EXPLORIS PDC software (Toyos et al. Nat Hazards 41(1):99–112, 2007). Risk to critical infrastructure from Mammoth Mountain PDCs would be much greater than the Inyo PDCs because of both location and the greater kinetic energy of the Mammoth PDC material, providing comparative insight to planners should a real eruption at one location or the other be forthcoming.     

Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam

In this study, change in rainfall, temperature and river discharge are analysed over the last three decades in Central Vietnam. Trends and rainfall indices are evaluated using non‐parametric tests at different temporal levels. To overcome the sparse locally available network, the high resolution APHRODITE gridded dataset is used in addition to the existing rain gauges. Finally, existing linkages between discharge changes and trends in rainfall and temperature are explored. Results are indicative of an intensification of rainfall (+15%/decade), with more extreme and longer events. A significant increase in winter rainfall and a decrease in consecutive dry days provides strong evidence for a lengthening wet season in Central Vietnam. In addition, trends based on APHRODITE suggest a strong orographic signal in winter and annual trends. These results underline the local variability in the impacts of climatic change at the global scale. Consequently, it is important that change detection investigations are conducted at the local scale. A very weak signal is detected in the trend of minimum temperature (+0.2°C/decade). River discharge trends show an increase in mean discharge (31 to 35%/decade) over the last decades. Between 54 and 74% of this increase is explained by the increase in precipitation. The maximum discharge also responds significantly to precipitation changes leading to a lengthened wet season and an increase in extreme rainfall events. Such trends can be linked with a likely increase in floods in Central Vietnam, which is important for future adaptation planning and management and flood preparedness in the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigating the application of climate models in flood projection across the UK

Regional climate models (RCMs) have emerged as the preferred tool in hydrological impact assessment at the catchment scale. The direct application of RCM precipitation output is still not recommended; instead, a number of alternative methods have been proposed. One method that has been used is the change factor methodology, which typically uses changes to monthly mean or seasonal precipitation totals to develop change scenarios. However, such simplistic approaches are subject to significant caveats. In this paper, 18 RCMs covering the UK from the ENSEMBLES and UKCP09 projects are analysed across different catchments. The ensembles' ability in capturing monthly total and extreme precipitation is outlined to explore how the ability to make confident statements about future flood risk varies between different catchments. The suitability of applying simplistic change factor approaches in flood impact studies is also explored. We found that RCM ensembles do have some skill in simulating observed monthly precipitation; however, seasonal patterns of bias were evident across each of the catchments. Moreover, even apparently good simulations of extreme rainfall can mis‐estimate the magnitude of flood‐generating rainfall events in ways that would significantly affect flood risk management. For future changes in monthly mean precipitation, we observe the clear ‘drier summers/wetter winters’ signal used to develop current UK policy, but when we look instead at flood‐generating rainfall, this seasonal signal is less clear and greater increases are projected. Furthermore, the confidence associated with future projections varies from catchment to catchment and season to season as a result of the varying ability of the RCM ensembles, and in some cases, future flood risk projections using RCM outputs may be highly problematic. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater modelling with limited data sets: the Chari–Logone area (Lake Chad Basin,Chad)

One of the most important issues for water resource management is developing strategies for groundwater modelling that are adaptable to data scarcity. These strategies are particularly important in arid and semi‐arid areas where access to data is poor and data collection is difficult, such as the Lake Chad Basin in Africa. In the present study, we establish a numerical groundwater flow model and evaluate the effects of dry and wet periods on groundwater recharge in the Chari–Logone area (96 000 km²) of the Lake Chad Basin. Boundary conditions, flow direction, sources, and sinks for the Chari–Logone local model were obtained by revising and remodelling the Lake Chad Basin regional hydrogeological model (508 400 km²) developed by the BRGM (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) in the 1990s. The simulated aquifer water level showed good agreement with observed levels. Aquifer recharge is primarily determined by river–aquifer interactions and mostly occurs in the southern section of the study area. In wet years, groundwater recharge also occurs in the N'Djamena area. The approach we adopted provided relevant results and was useful as an initial step in more detailed modelling of the area. It also proved to be a useful method for groundwater modelling in large semi‐arid and arid regions where available data are scarce. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A GIS method to identify flat surfaces and restore relict fluvial long-profiles from terrace remnants gives new clues on how large basins respond to endorheic–exorheic transitions (Duero basin,Iberian Peninsula)

Fluvial terraces are used as geomorphic indicators for deciphering long-term landscape evolution. Knowing the distribution of fluvial terraces is essential for establishing former river profiles and their tectonic significance, for studying climate-modulated processes of terrace development, or for defining fluvial network adjustments in response to sudden base-level changes like those produced by fluvial captures. Multiple methods for automatic map production have been proposed based on the comparison of morphometric indices with those of the modern river course. Here we propose an alternative method to identify flat surfaces and scarps separating them from digital elevation models without setting comparisons with a modern river course and thus fully applicable to study flat landforms whatever their origin. Its application to the low-relief landscape of the Cenozoic Duero basin has allowed the improvement of previous geomorphological maps and the analysis of fluvial network adjustments in response to a sudden base-level fall after the opening of the Neogene endorheic basin towards the Atlantic Ocean. Reconstructed terrace long-profiles suggest an initial episode of fast vertical incision followed by a period of repeated planation–aggradation–incision with the formation of 14 to 13 unpaired terrace levels. Changes observed in the pattern of terrace profiles are discussed with regard to changes in regional tectonics and base-level variations. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.