An adaptive sampling approach to reduce uncertainty in slope stability analysis

An adaptive sampling approach is proposed, which can sample spatially varying shear strength parameters efficiently to reduce uncertainty in the slope stability analysis. This approach employs a limit equilibrium model and stochastic conditional methodology to determine the likely sampling locations. Karhunen-Loève expansion is used to conduct the conditional Monte Carlo simulation. A first-order analysis is also proposed to ease the computational burden associated with Monte Carlo simulation. These approaches are then tested using borehole data from a field site. Results indicate that the proposed adaptive sampling approach is an effective and efficient sampling scheme for reducing uncertainty in slope stability analysis.     

Investigating the application of climate models in flood projection across the UK

Regional climate models (RCMs) have emerged as the preferred tool in hydrological impact assessment at the catchment scale. The direct application of RCM precipitation output is still not recommended; instead, a number of alternative methods have been proposed. One method that has been used is the change factor methodology, which typically uses changes to monthly mean or seasonal precipitation totals to develop change scenarios. However, such simplistic approaches are subject to significant caveats. In this paper, 18 RCMs covering the UK from the ENSEMBLES and UKCP09 projects are analysed across different catchments. The ensembles' ability in capturing monthly total and extreme precipitation is outlined to explore how the ability to make confident statements about future flood risk varies between different catchments. The suitability of applying simplistic change factor approaches in flood impact studies is also explored. We found that RCM ensembles do have some skill in simulating observed monthly precipitation; however, seasonal patterns of bias were evident across each of the catchments. Moreover, even apparently good simulations of extreme rainfall can mis‐estimate the magnitude of flood‐generating rainfall events in ways that would significantly affect flood risk management. For future changes in monthly mean precipitation, we observe the clear ‘drier summers/wetter winters’ signal used to develop current UK policy, but when we look instead at flood‐generating rainfall, this seasonal signal is less clear and greater increases are projected. Furthermore, the confidence associated with future projections varies from catchment to catchment and season to season as a result of the varying ability of the RCM ensembles, and in some cases, future flood risk projections using RCM outputs may be highly problematic. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater modelling with limited data sets: the Chari–Logone area (Lake Chad Basin,Chad)

One of the most important issues for water resource management is developing strategies for groundwater modelling that are adaptable to data scarcity. These strategies are particularly important in arid and semi‐arid areas where access to data is poor and data collection is difficult, such as the Lake Chad Basin in Africa. In the present study, we establish a numerical groundwater flow model and evaluate the effects of dry and wet periods on groundwater recharge in the Chari–Logone area (96 000 km²) of the Lake Chad Basin. Boundary conditions, flow direction, sources, and sinks for the Chari–Logone local model were obtained by revising and remodelling the Lake Chad Basin regional hydrogeological model (508 400 km²) developed by the BRGM (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) in the 1990s. The simulated aquifer water level showed good agreement with observed levels. Aquifer recharge is primarily determined by river–aquifer interactions and mostly occurs in the southern section of the study area. In wet years, groundwater recharge also occurs in the N'Djamena area. The approach we adopted provided relevant results and was useful as an initial step in more detailed modelling of the area. It also proved to be a useful method for groundwater modelling in large semi‐arid and arid regions where available data are scarce. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

古魔翼龙和披羽蛇翼龙的水上起飞能力

Many of the large pterodactyloid pterosaurs come from marine sediments or inland freshwater deposits (Lawson, 1975; Bennett, 1994; Wang et al., 2005; Unwin, 2006).     

Distinction between amorphous and healed planar deformation features in shocked quartz using composite color scanning electron microscope cathodoluminescence (SEM‐CL) imaging

Planar deformation features (PDFs) in quartz are one of the most reliable and most widely used forms of evidence for hypervelocity impact. PDFs can be identified in scanning electron microscope cathodoluminescence (SEM‐CL) images, but not all PDFs show the same CL behavior: there are nonluminescent and red luminescent PDFs. This study aims to explain the origin of the different CL emissions in PDFs. Focused ion beam (FIB) thin foils were prepared of specific sample locations selected in composite color SEM‐CL images and were analyzed in a transmission electron microscope (TEM). The FIB preparation technique allowed a direct, often one‐to‐one correlation between the CL images and the defect structure observed in TEM. This correlation shows that composite color SEM‐CL imaging allows distinction between amorphous PDFs on one hand and healed PDFs and basal Brazil twins on the other: nonluminescent PDFs are amorphous, while healed PDFs and basal Brazil twins are red luminescent, with a dominant emission peak at 650 nm. We suggest that the red luminescence is the result of preferential beam damage along dislocations, fluid inclusions, and twin boundaries. Furthermore, a high‐pressure phase (possibly stishovite) in PDFs can be detected in color SEM‐CL images by its blue luminescence.     

Holocene environmental change in southern Spain deduced from the isotopic record of a high-elevation wetland in Sierra Nevada

Small lakes and wetlands from high elevation within the Sierra Nevada Range (southern Spain) preserve a complete post-glacial Holocene record. Isotopic, TOC and C/N analyses, carried out on a sediment core, show various stages in the evolution of the Borreguiles de la Virgen, which today constitute a small bog at about 2,950?m above sea level. Glacial erosion generated a cirque depression, which became a small lake during the first phase of infilling (from?8,200 to 5,100?cal?yr BP), as suggested by sedimentary evidence, including an atomic C/N ratio generally below 20, low TOC values and the highest ??¹³C and ??¹⁵N values of the record. These results imply significant algal productivity, which is confirmed by the microscopic algal remains. Drier conditions became established progressively in this area from?5,100 to 3,700?cal?yr BP. Subsequently, the lake evolved into a bog as shown by geochemical evidence (C/N ratios above 20, high TOC content and low ??¹³C values). Unstable conditions prevailed from?3,600 to 700?cal?yr BP; an extremely low sedimentation rate and scarcity of data from this period do not allow us to make a coherent interpretation. Fluctuating conditions were recorded during the last?~700?cal?yr BP, with wetter conditions prevailing during the first part of the interval (with C/N rate below 20) up to 350?years ago. In general, a gradual trend toward more arid conditions occurred since?~6,900?cal?yr BP, with a further increase in aridity since?~5,100?cal?yr BP. This evidence is consistent with other contemporaneous peri-Mediterranean records.     

Description of the larval development of Galaxies maculatus in landlocked lentic and lotic systems in Western Australia

The larvae and larval development of Galaxias maculatus are described from a freshwater lake and a saline river in southwestern Western Australia. The size at hatching (7.0 mm total length) was similar to that recorded elsewhere for G. maculatus and the sequence of fin development (i.e., caudal, dorsal, anal, pectoral, and pelvic fins) was identical to that recorded for galaxiids generally. There were relative increases in the proportions of head length and body depth with larval growth and a decrease in proportion of pre‐anal length. Larvae from river habitats were smaller throughout larval stages of development than those from the lake. Fins of riverine fish began and completed development at a smaller size of fish than the lacustrine population, presumably as a response to the need for great motility at a smaller fish size in lotic environments.     

Interrelations between socio-economic development and environmental quality: a simulation integrating system dynamics models with GIS

System dynamics （SD） theory has long been deployed in modeling complex non-linear interrelationships but, so far it has not been common to do the kind of modeling in support of bringing environmental sustainability policies to practice. This is largely because the challenge of including spatial data has not yet been well met. Potential for adoption of SD and GIS methods in combination is exemplified with the results of a decision-support exercise designed for simulation and prediction of the dynamic inter-relationships between socio-economic development and environmental quality for the “Wen, Pi, Du” county in Sichuan province, southwestern China.     

Multivariate analysis of biogenic constituents in recent sediments off Ras Burka, Gulf of Elat, Red Sea

The shallow shelf area to a water depth of 40 m off Ras Burka, Gulf of Elat, comprises several depositional zones. In order of increasing water depth these include: sand dune (on shore); swash; dead reef platform; sand channel; live coral reef; Cymodoceaslope; reef knolls; and Halophilalawn. The abundance of 64 biogenic constituents, comprising 48 genera of Foraminifera and a variety of other taxa, was recorded in 16 samples representing the sediments presently forming in the various environments. Nodal ordination and association analysis were applied to classify the samples and to examine whether the present day zonation of sedimentary environments can be objectively recognized on the basis of the assemblages of biogenic constituents. The analyses classified the samples consistently into three classes, identified as the shallow near-shore, the upper slope, and the lower slope zones. Association analysis, utilizing only discrete binary presence or absence scores, yielded better results than nodal ordination analysis utilizing continuous metric modal data. In the study area, biogenic grains other than Foraminifera do not contribute to the environmental discrimination. The results suggest that crude presence scores, as contrasted with refined metric data, are informative enough for differentiating sedimentary environments.