Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and the costs of delayed action

Current country-level commitments under the Paris Agreement fall short of putting the world on a required trajectory to stay below a 2°C temperature increase compared to pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Therefore, the timing of increased ambition is hugely important and as such this paper analyses the impact of both the short and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement on global emissions and economic growth. Using the hybrid TIAM-UCL-MSA model we consider the achievement of a 2°C target against a baseline of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) while also considering the timing of increased ambition of the NDCs by 2030 and the impacts of cost reductions of key low-carbon technologies. We find that the rate of emissions reduction ambition required between 2030 and 2050 is almost double when the NDCs are achieved but not ratcheted up until 2030, and leads to lower levels of economic growth throughout the rest of the century. However, if action is taken immediately and is accompanied by increasingly rapid low-carbon technology cost reductions, then there is almost no difference in GDP compared to the path suggested by the current NDC commitments.

Key policy insights

• Delaying the additional action needed to achieve the 2°C target until 2030 is shown to require twice the rate of emissions reductions between 2030 and 2050.

• Total cumulative GDP over the century is lower when additional action is delayed to 2030 and therefore has an overall negative impact on the economy, even without including climate change damages.

• Increased ratcheting of the NDC commitments should therefore be undertaken sooner rather than later, starting in conjunction with the 2023 Global Stocktake.

• Early action combined with cost reductions in key renewable energy technologies can reduce GDP losses to minimal levels (<1%).

• A 2°C future with technological advancements is clearly possible for a similar cost as a 3.3°C world without these advances, but with lower damages and losses from climate change.

     

Removal of dissolved selenium by siderite,pyrite, and sphalerite: Implications to selenium sequestration in water-saturated,anoxic coal waste rock

The mechanisms of abiotic sequestration of Se(VI) and Se(IV) on a sample of coal waste rock collected from the Elk Valley, Canada and on three pure mineral species (i.e., siderite, pyrite, and sphalerite) present in coal waste rock were assessed using sterile batch testing under water-saturated, anoxic conditions. Only siderite removed measurable Se(VI) from the test solutions with ~90% removal after 100 d attributed to initial adsorption to the siderite surface as Se(VI) and subsequent reduction to Se(IV) and Se(0). In contrast to Se(VI), all samples removed Se(IV) from the aqueous solutions. The rate of Se(IV) removal was pyrite > siderite > waste rock > sphalerite. The waste rock sample removed Se(IV) from solution in two stages: up to ~40% of the aqueous Se(IV) was rapidly removed (by day 1) followed by slower removal of Se(IV) with up to ~97% removal after 99 d. Se(IV) removal is attributed to the adsorption of Se(IV) and subsequent reduction to Se(0) onto the siderite and pyrite phases of the waste rock. The initial (1 d) removal of Se(IV) by waste rock was characterized using a distribution coefficient (K_d) of 15.5 L/kg. Longer-term Se(IV) removal was fitted with zero and first order removal rates. The removal of Se(IV) by sphalerite was minor and deemed to have a minimal effect on Se sequestration in the waste rock. Desorption tests on waste rock showed that the fraction of sequestered Se susceptible to desorption decreased with time as adsorbed Se(IV) was reduced to insoluble Se(0). These findings show that abiotic Se sequestration can occur in saturated, anoxic zones in coal waste rock dumps.     

Investigating the application of climate models in flood projection across the UK

Regional climate models (RCMs) have emerged as the preferred tool in hydrological impact assessment at the catchment scale. The direct application of RCM precipitation output is still not recommended; instead, a number of alternative methods have been proposed. One method that has been used is the change factor methodology, which typically uses changes to monthly mean or seasonal precipitation totals to develop change scenarios. However, such simplistic approaches are subject to significant caveats. In this paper, 18 RCMs covering the UK from the ENSEMBLES and UKCP09 projects are analysed across different catchments. The ensembles' ability in capturing monthly total and extreme precipitation is outlined to explore how the ability to make confident statements about future flood risk varies between different catchments. The suitability of applying simplistic change factor approaches in flood impact studies is also explored. We found that RCM ensembles do have some skill in simulating observed monthly precipitation; however, seasonal patterns of bias were evident across each of the catchments. Moreover, even apparently good simulations of extreme rainfall can mis‐estimate the magnitude of flood‐generating rainfall events in ways that would significantly affect flood risk management. For future changes in monthly mean precipitation, we observe the clear ‘drier summers/wetter winters’ signal used to develop current UK policy, but when we look instead at flood‐generating rainfall, this seasonal signal is less clear and greater increases are projected. Furthermore, the confidence associated with future projections varies from catchment to catchment and season to season as a result of the varying ability of the RCM ensembles, and in some cases, future flood risk projections using RCM outputs may be highly problematic. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater modelling with limited data sets: the Chari–Logone area (Lake Chad Basin,Chad)

One of the most important issues for water resource management is developing strategies for groundwater modelling that are adaptable to data scarcity. These strategies are particularly important in arid and semi‐arid areas where access to data is poor and data collection is difficult, such as the Lake Chad Basin in Africa. In the present study, we establish a numerical groundwater flow model and evaluate the effects of dry and wet periods on groundwater recharge in the Chari–Logone area (96 000 km²) of the Lake Chad Basin. Boundary conditions, flow direction, sources, and sinks for the Chari–Logone local model were obtained by revising and remodelling the Lake Chad Basin regional hydrogeological model (508 400 km²) developed by the BRGM (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) in the 1990s. The simulated aquifer water level showed good agreement with observed levels. Aquifer recharge is primarily determined by river–aquifer interactions and mostly occurs in the southern section of the study area. In wet years, groundwater recharge also occurs in the N'Djamena area. The approach we adopted provided relevant results and was useful as an initial step in more detailed modelling of the area. It also proved to be a useful method for groundwater modelling in large semi‐arid and arid regions where available data are scarce. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.