Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’

The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand’s nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached 90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption crisis, and as a rational starting point for discussions in a scientific advisory group. It also stimulated valuable scientific discussion around how a future AVF eruption might progress, and highlighted areas of future volcanological research that would reduce epistemic uncertainties through the development of better input models.     

Late quaternary sea‐level changes,crustal movements and coastal evolution in Northumberland,UK

Northumberland lies in the transition between Holocene emergence and submergence and is thus a critical zone for testing models of isostatic rebound. We have collected data from this area to reconstruct relative sea‐level changes and lateral coastline movements for the last 14000 y. These are deposits from tidal marsh, back‐barrier wetland and terrestrial environments producing 47 sea‐level index points from 12 sites. There is no unequivocal evidence for Late Devensian sea levels above present and the reliable sea‐level index points are restricted between −6 m and +2.5 m relative to present and 9.0–2.5 kyr cal. BP. Analysis of these quantifies differential responses to glacio‐ and hydroisostatic rebound, with the northern sites recording a mid‐Holocene sea‐level maximum ca. 2.5 m above present, whereas the southern sites show a maximum ca. 0.5 m above present. These observations show a reasonable fit with the predictions from quantitative models of glacio and hydroisostatic rebound, but there is currently no unique solution of Earth and ice model parameters that will explain all the sea‐level observations. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of antecedent moisture conditions on the relationship of hydrology to hydrochemistry in a small forested watershed

The relationship between stream discharge and the concentration of different solutes reflects the hydrological processes occurring in a catchment, but is also strongly affected by antecedent moisture conditions. In this study, the effects of antecedent conditions were examined for a small forested watershed near Montréal (Québec) by comparing data from sequences of fall events for two years of contrasting antecedent moisture conditions. The relationship between discharge and stream water chemistry was also quantified using cross‐correlation analysis. Results show that concentrations of dissolved organic carbon, nitrate and calcium increased during storm events with dry antecedent conditions but that the relationships were weaker under wet conditions. For both years, concentrations of sulfate, silicon and sodium and the pH were negatively correlated with discharge (cross‐correlations from −0·20 to −0·53). With dry antecedent conditions, there was a general decrease in the concentration of all solutes with time, whereas concentrations remained at about the same level under wet conditions. The concentration–discharge relationships for sulfate shifted frequently from higher concentrations during the rising limb to higher concentrations during the falling limb from one event to another as a result of changing antecedent conditions. Although the contrast in antecedent moisture conditions between the two years was moderate in comparison with that reported in other studies (25% dryer than average in 1995 and 12% wetter than average in 1996), the hydrochemistry of the stream was markedly different. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cyclic tensile-compressive tests on thin concrete boundary elements with a single layer of reinforcement prone to out-of-plane instability

The growing need for residential housing in Latin American countries has led to the construction of reinforced concrete buildings with wall thicknesses as low as 8–10 cm. Such walls have typically only a single layer of vertical rebars and are therefore particularly susceptible to out-of-plane failure. In order to investigate the response of the corresponding wall boundary elements, twelve reinforced concrete members with a single layer of vertical rebars were tested under tension–compression cycles. The objective was to gain insight into the parameters governing wall instability and out-of-plane failure, namely the thickness, reinforcement ratio, and eccentricity of the longitudinal rebars with respect to the member axis. This paper summarises the results of the test program, where the specimens' response is analysed also at the global and local levels. The results show that the crack pattern has an important influence on the out-of-plane behaviour and the conditions leading to out-of-plane failure are described. Furthermore, the differences between members with a single layer of vertical rebars and members with two layers are discussed. The influence of the parameters considered in the experimental program is addressed, showing that sections with small thickness and large reinforcement content are more prone to out-of-plane failures. Finally, predictions given by existing models are compared to the new experimental data. The entire data set is publicly available.     

Measuring Concentrations of Dissolved Methane and Ethane and the 13C of Methane in Shale and Till

Baseline characterization of concentrations and isotopic values of dissolved natural gases is needed to identify contamination caused by the leakage of fugitive gases from oil and gas activities. Methods to collect and analyze baseline concentration‐depth profiles of dissolved CH₄ and C₂H₆ and δ¹³C‐CH₄ in shales and Quaternary clayey tills were assessed at two sites in the Williston Basin, Canada. Core and cuttings samples were stored in Isojars^® in a low O₂ headspace prior to analysis. Measurements and multiphase diffusion modeling show that the gas concentrations in core samples yield well‐defined and reproducible depth profiles after 31‐d equilibration. No measurable oxidative loss or production during core sample storage was observed. Concentrations from cuttings and mud gas logging (including IsoTubes^®) were much lower than from cores, but correlated well. Simulations suggest the lower concentrations from cuttings can be attributed to drilling time, and therefore their use to define gas concentration profiles may have inherent limitations. Calculations based on mud gas logging show the method can provide estimates of core concentrations if operational parameters for the mud gas capture cylinder are quantified. The δ¹³C‐CH₄ measured from mud gas, IsoTubes^®, cuttings, and core samples are consistent, exhibiting slight variations that should not alter the implications of the results in identifying the sources of the gases. This study shows core and mud gas techniques and, to a lesser extent, cuttings, can generate high‐resolution depth profiles of dissolved hydrocarbon gas concentrations and their isotopes.     

Stream bed temperature profiles as indicators of percolation characteristics beneath arroyos in the Middle Rio Grande Basin,USA

Stream bed temperature profiles were monitored continuously during water year 1990 and 1991 (WY90 and 91) in two New Mexico arroyos, similar in their meteorological features and dissimilar in their hydrological features. Stream bed temperature profiles between depths of 30 and 300 cm were examined to determine whether temporal changes in temperature profiles represent accurate indicators of the timing, depth and duration of percolation in each stream bed. These results were compared with stream flow, air temperature, and precipitation records for WY90 and 91, to evaluate the effect of changing surface conditions on temperature profiles. Temperature profiles indicate a persistently high thermal gradient with depth beneath Grantline Arroyo, except during a semi-annual thermal reversal in spring and autumn. This typifies the thermal response of dry sediments with low thermal conductivities. High thermal gradients were disrupted only during infrequent stream flows, followed by rapid re-establishment of high gradients. The stream bed temperature at 300 cm was unresponsive to individual precipitation or stream flow during WY90 and 91. This thermal pattern provides strong evidence that most seepage into Grantline Arroyo failed to percolate at a sufficient rate to reach 300 cm before being returned to the atmosphere. A distinctly different thermal pattern was recorded beneath Tijeras Arroyo. Low thermal gradients between 30 and 300 cm and large diurnal variations in temperature, suggest that stream flow created continuous, advection-dominated heat transport for over 300 days, annually. Beneath Tijeras Arroyo, low thermal gradients were interrupted only briefly during periodic, dry summer conditions. Comparisons of stream flow records for WY90 and 91 with stream bed temperature profiles indicate that independent analysis of thermal patterns provides accurate estimates of the timing, depth and duration of percolation beneath both arroyos. Stream flow loss estimates indicate that seepage rates were 15 times greater for Tijeras Arroyo than for Grantline Arroyo, which supports qualitative conclusions derived from analysis of stream bed temperature responses to surface conditions. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How resilient is the labour market against natural disaster? Evaluating the effects from the 2010 earthquake in Chile

Natural disasters are one of the main channels through which ecological and socio-economic systems interact. In particular, the severe impacts of earthquakes could disrupt activities in the labour market. However, the literature barely researched the long-term effects of such events. To investigate this issue, this article is concentrated in Chile that is subject to recurring seismic movements. The 27 February 2010 Bío-Bío Chile earthquake (M_w 8.8) was the second strongest in the history of the country. This natural disaster can be used to evaluate the response of the labour market to an exogenous shock. Besides, the capacity for resilience in the labour market is crucial for people who rely on their job. This document analyses the impacts of the 2010 Bío-Bío earthquake and tsunami on Chilean labour market outcomes, in particular, the quality of employment. With this objective, different data are combined for analysing the effect in the short and long term. Also, distinct econometric techniques and exogenous measurements of seismic acceleration are used. The evidence shows that these catastrophes harmed the labour market in the short term. However, in the long term, the government’s reconstruction efforts and other factors could have attenuated the adverse effects over some variables in the most affected zones.

     

Suspended sediment yield and transfer processes in a small High-Arctic glacier basin,Svalbard

Observations of suspended sediment concentration and discharge at two sites on the proglacial river network draining from a predominantly cold-based, High-Arctic glacier (Austre Brøggerbreen) are described. Analysis of these observations illustrates: (i) the relatively low suspended sediment yield from this basin in comparison with many other glacier basins reported in the open literature; (ii) sustained and possibly increasing availability of suspended sediment to the fluvial system as the ablation season progresses; and (iii) the role of the proglacial sandur as both a sediment source and sink. Field observations coupled with the results of the data analysis are used to make inferences concerning the changing nature and relative importance of sediment sources within the basin. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.